Dynasty

Dynasty Stock Market: Walk Them Through the Out Door; You Can Find Them In A Second Hand Store

This article is continuing a two-part monthly series called Dynasty Stock Market that discusses which players I am buying or selling on my Dynasty rosters. The April buy piece about investing in unpopular running backs can be found here. The March installments can be found here (buys) and here (sells). The February installments can be found here (buys) and here (sells). The January installments can he found here (buys) and here (sells).

THE DRAFT IS HERE

I’m a bit of a weirdo. If you follow me on Twitter (first of all, I’m sorry) you may have seen me recently suggest ignoring the idea of identifying which players are “good.” Or disregard the dynasty maxim, “ignore situation, focus on talent.” My strategy is far more focused on situation, and trying to predict likely opportunity, than it is trying to assess who is “good” at football. I keep putting “good” in quotes for a reason — being valuable in fantasy football is not the same thing as being good at playing football. Obviously there is a ton of overlap to being good and getting opportunity, or being in advantageous situations, but there’s a bit more to our game than that. One example is any discussion about which running backs are good “in the receiving game” based on the amount of receptions and receiving yards they generate. But it’s quite a bit trickier than that. For running backs (and wide receivers), Rich Hribar talks about the importance of a concept called “Game Flow“; for quarterbacks, Hribar talks about how Game Flow, volume, and opposing defense all factor in to fantasy success. To put it another way, I don’t think you’d find too many people that claim Blake Bortles, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Fitzpatrick are among the eleven best quarterbacks in football, yet they all finished at least that high in overall fantasy points last season. This isn’t obvious to all of your league mates, but there’s a lot more going on here than who is good at the game of football. Using strategy and game theory to your advantage is critical to success, and is just as important as an ability to evaluate football players’ talent. Beyond player assessment, there is another crucial aspect of game theory involved with dynasty fantasy football that revolves around the draft: roster management. Whether you are holding a lot of rookie picks or none at all, you should be looking at the other teams in your league, their rosters, and the number of picks they hold. You’re not playing this game alone, and you’re not trying to be perfect. You’re playing with a finite number of other people, and you only have to be better than they are. The value of draft picks reaches its apex as your league’s draft gets closer, and people will sell the veterans on their rosters at a discount in order to create the space needed to use their picks. I want to illustrate some of the ideas I have for ways to either create roster space, or take advantage of teams that have none.

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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  1. I don't necessarily disagree that McKinnon is a sell, but two things:
    1) It's a little misleading to say Asiata had significantly more rushing attempts. He played four more games than McKinnon, and had less competition in those games as McKinnon and Peterson were both out.
    2) McKinnon was actually utilized more than Asiata as a receiver last season. Considering he was a QB convert, it makes sense that he could continue to become more involved in that role.

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