The 2016 Phenom Index for Rookie Wide Receivers

In the two years since the introduction of the Phenom Index, the intersection of age and production has gained more traction in the NFL Draft community. Thanks to everyone who has built on this work and done additional research on age factors. Here is the 2016 edition of the Phenom Index for wide receivers. To be perfectly clear, introducing age into the equation doesn’t mean older prospects can’t be good; it just means that expectations are different for older players. After all, the age range of draft-eligible receivers in 2016 spans from 20.4 to 25.4, so doesn’t it make sense that we have a way to adjust for their age? The Phenom Index is my way of doing that.

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By Jon Moore | @HelloJonMoore | Archive

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  1. PaulC says:

    Illuminating as always. Do you notice any common trait or thread among WRs with high PI scores but who end up busting? I'm sure there are many factors that contribute, but wondering if any one or two factors seem to be more common.

    Also, have you thought about examining the 2015 rookie WRs based on their PI scores, for possible buy-lows? Maybe there are better measures or better ways to find sleepers in the sophomore class, but for those of us in keeper but not dynasty leagues, where you can keep a limited number of players, it would be tremendously useful to examine which 2015 rookies with high PI scores may be undervalued due to quiet rookie years. Or maybe first-year performance drowns out PI score as far as being useful in predicting a breakout? Second-year breakouts have a lot of value for keeper leagues with limited keepers (and built-in inflation), because the shine is off and they can be had for cheap.

  2. I know Freedman strongly dislikes WRs with bad production (a la Stephen Hill who had a very high PI) and thus dislikes Funchess despite his high PI score.

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