Opportunity Scores: The Top Landing Spots for Rookie Wide Receivers
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Last year, we attempted to create a numbers-based formula for determining which teams are the best landing spots for rookie wide receivers. In fantasy and real football, performance is largely a function of opportunity, whether created through talent, draft position or a lack of roster competition. The foundation of our formula is the relationship between quarterback and receiver ADP. A higher drafted quarterback, presumably, will throw for more yards and touchdowns than one drafted lower. Receivers are the ones catching the ball and accumulating those yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. By analyzing the relationship between our assessments of a team’s quarterback and receivers, we can see which part of the equation is undervalued versus the other. First, let’s look at that historical relationship between quarterback and receiver ADPs. You can see a strong relationship and trendline through the middle of the data. There are a few adjustments that make this formula work:
- The receiver value calculation is the inverse of ADP: the last pick in a 20-round, 12-team draft (240) minus ADP. You then add up all the values for wide receivers and tight ends to come up with the combined score.
- The receiving stats accumulated by running backs in an offense are accounted for by discounting the receiver value calculation by the percentage of receiving fantasy points to running backs.
- Quarterback rushing production is also accounted for by discounting the receiver value calculation by the percentage of quarterback fantasy points from rushing, not throwing.
- A logical conclusion since there is only one projection and quarterback performance is more consistent. (back)