Advice

Opportunity Depth Chart – Fantasy Football’s Best Situations For Wide Receivers

Opportunity Depth Chart is the second article in a series that explores the concept of Fantasy Points per Team Attempt. The introductory article can be found here. This is an extension of the larger concept of evaluating fantasy football through market share, the idea in which RotoViz signature concepts Dominator Rating and Workhorse Score are rooted. The following table appeared in the first article discussing this project, showing which wide receiver roles produced the most fantasy points per team attempt in the 2015 season:
TEAMPASS ATTFPS/ATT (ALL)WR1 FPS/ATTWR2 FPS/ATTWR3 FPS/ATT
SEA4891.87320.43540.41310.3168
ARI5621.82310.48750.42530.3167
CIN5051.80650.50890.37410.1442
WAS5551.75770.30340.25980.3025
CAR5021.73090.27130.30460.2492
NO6671.72260.32850.34330.2214
NE6291.71490.35580.29010.1143
PIT5901.70730.64310.3510.2744
NYG6231.67370.48880.29390.2085
BUF4651.65010.44340.35250.2127
DET6321.64430.42010.32220.1603
SDC6671.62080.37180.23090.1784
JAX6071.60760.48550.39370.1924
NYJ6041.59880.54070.4560.1414
KCC4731.59730.50020.2520.1298
OAK6061.59220.33580.40590.1876
TB5351.58360.45760.17180.1738
CHI5231.57990.43880.18930.1526
ATL6211.56880.47520.28370.2071
GB5731.54330.37090.32670.2255
TEN5511.52870.21450.24920.1279
PHI6231.52760.26770.24130.0831
MIA5881.51380.34340.33130.1823
HOU6191.47870.53170.29740.1956
MIN4541.47750.35880.2070.2075
DAL5291.46920.30870.24050.2284
DEN6061.45050.40480.43880.0822
BAL6761.44840.24780.33240.1299
CLE6091.42730.23990.28950.1683
SF5261.42510.33060.27490.1112
IND6191.42390.30790.32490.1847
STL4731.30970.23170.26550.1237
The next step is to weigh that efficiency against volume to see which roles had the highest value from an opportunity standpoint. In order to do this, I used the following information below, calculated the same way as the first table, using weekly snaps to determine who the WR1, WR2, and WR3 were on a game-by-game basis.

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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  1. OFACE?

    Any thoughts on whether or not Justin Hardy is the man who can replace Roddy White?

  2. One benefit to writing is that you get to make your own acronyms.

  3. I do think that if you look at something that first breaks it out by per target, and then later adds the targets back in, it's fair to wonder what the first step was for.

    edit: and that's not to be critical of this post specifically, I see similar happening in football all of the time.

    Football Study Hall did this piece last year http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/2/2/7959095/college-football-running-back-stats-melvin-gordon and if you look about halfway down the page you can see that they have a metric that first calculates highlight yards/opportunity, and then multiplies it by opportunity. They basically reinvented yards/carry (and in fact YPC has a .93 correlation with that number).

  4. Well there's a few reasons, first and foremost it's just having fun. After running all these numbers and approaching something so trivial and silly as fantasy football with such an analytical process, it's important for me to circle back around to highlighting how ridiculous (my) life is by calling the stat OFACE. Also, acronyms are easier to remember and talk about if they're pronounceable, so if I used "Players" or "Mysteries", OFACP or OFACM is not pronounceable. I obviously could have come up with a less funny thing than OFACE, but I like to be goofy and poke fun at myself by doing things like that.

  5. For me it was about first breaking it out by team attempts, then multiplying it by the combination of market share and team attempts, which is each role's number of targets. The fluidity of the concept is obviously something I've struggled to convey effectively, but that's nothing new heh.

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