Dynasty

3 Wide Receivers You’re Not Drafting if You Believe in the Phenom Index

Jon Moore recently published the 2016 version of the Phenom Index for rookie wide receivers, an essential resource that boils age-adjusted production down to a single number. But something far rarer also happened- Jon Moore understated the importance of age-adjusted production. The scores of top WR prospects Josh Doctson, Sterling Shepard, and Michael Thomas are huge red flags, making all three so massively overvalued that I likely won’t be drafting them in any format.

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By Justin Winn | @TheHumanHuman | Archive

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  1. PaulC says:

    Giants fan here, so you know this is going to be about Sterling Shepard. And this is probably not the right place to ask this, but I'm not on Twitter and don't have Jon Moore's email address. Is it possible that Jon Moore and you guys used the wrong age when calculating Shepard's PI scores, and in the graph here (http://rotoviz.com/2015/12/2016-nfl-draft-prospect-sterling-shepard-wr-oklahoma-tyler-lockett-2-0/) and in this article about seeing age on film (http://rotoviz.com/2016/02/sterling-shepard-nfl-dynasty-laquon-treadwell-fantasy/?hvid=5t3H8H, which I think otherwise contains a great insight)? I kept seeing his age being listed close to guys like Josh Doctson, when he's more than a year younger. I think the root of the problem might be here (http://rotoviz.com/2016/01/63244/) with the Draft Age Database, which lists his birthday in 1993. Other sources I've found list 1994 (same month and day). I have no idea whether his actual birthday is in 1993 or 1994, but I've seen 1994 everywhere else except here and this SPARQ list (https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/wr/), so maybe it's the same faulty NFL data source. Let's say you did make him 1 year older in your database than he actually is. I presume that full year makes a big difference in the analysis. I would love to know what his new PI score and new outlook is, if in fact he actually was 21 in his most recent season and 20 in his 2014 season.

  2. PaulC says:

    Or maybe I should have kept this to myself in order to benefit in drafts by moving Shepard up.

  3. So I emailed you back about that 1993 birthday. However, in a pretty lackluster rookie class, and given his opportunity, I think Shepard could still be a buy. Just depends where he goes.

  4. JLaps says:

    As another Giants fan and someone who has rookie draft picks in a few leagues where he might be available at said pick...what was the verdict on that birthday?

  5. It's 1993, numerous tweets from people close to him wishing him a happy 21st in 2014.

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