Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott Profile as True Stars in Post-Combine RB Rankings

The 2016 class sports Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliott, two rare examples of highly publicized prospects who are actually as good as the hype. Beyond the two mega-stars, the class is fairly weak but with a handful of intriguing sleepers who could allow you to win your rookie draft in Round 2 or 3. Using the RotoViz RB Prospect Lab can help you calibrate your expectations for different prospects. It doesn’t necessarily mean that you should draft the prospects in exactly this order, as draft slot and opportunity will also play a key role in early career fantasy value.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

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  1. He does slightly, although I may have been too generous in estimating a 7.0 considering he opted out. (My thought was that the fast, strong pass-catching backs may opt out of the 3-cone since it can probably only hurt them as a good time is already assumed.)

    If he'd participated and run a 6.8, he would have leap-frogged Henry with a 94. If you assume a poor time of 7.3, his score falls to 89.

    Basically, a prospect as big, young, fast, and productive as Elliott is pretty immune to minor dings.

  2. How says:

    Isn't it a bit worrying that Henry had fewer receptions than any of his comps (generally A LOT fewer receptions)? And before you tell me that we don't know that he's a bad receiver, since he just didn't get the opportunities in college, here are the past 5 lead backs to play for Alabama:

    Yes, Henry outperformed the lot of them on the ground, and yes Henry's 40, size and explosiveness line up remarkably well with Brandon Jacobs's numbers (6'4", 267 lbs, 4.56 40, 37" vert, 118 broad, 7.54 3-cone, 4.49 shuttle, as compared to Henry's 6'3", 247 lbs, 4.54 40, 37" vert, 130 broad, 7.20 3-cone, 4.38 shuttle). Okay, Henry had much better broad jump and agility scores, but he was also 20 pounds lighter. Okay, and yes, Trent Richardson had the best receiving production in college, but how were we supposed to know one of the great RB prospects would suck so much?

    My point is this: I think we have a good enough sense of how Alabama runs its offense to be able to judge its running backs' receiving output. Also, Henry had lackluster receiving production after the departure of uber-prospect Amari Cooper.

  3. I think that's all very much the case. In this instance Henry's size probably works against him - in terms of the all-important receiving ability - and that's something not captured by the RB Prospect Lab which sees bigger as always better. I'll be making that argument in an update to my 5 Most Overvalued Prospects list.

    But I do think Henry makes a tremendous standard league pick or early MFL10 selection.

  4. As I mentioned in my Henry piece, I think that we are making a mistake if we assume that because Henry has never caught a ton of passes, that he never will, or that (even more egregious) he is not capable. Henry amassed almost 400 college carries this year. Asking him to also shoulder the receiving load is probably a little much, especially when you consider that Alabama does a great job with developing guys who can contribute on third downs. In fact, if you consider what Alabama RBs have been able to do in the NFL over the last few draft classes, it may even be likely that Henry possesses some receiving chops.

    Whether or not he actually gets that opportunity is an entirely different discussion, but I would honestly be surprised if Henry got chances as a receiver and failed.

  5. Aggs says:

    Is Prosise's 3-cone a concern? I'm starting to really like him as a prospect.

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