DeVante Parker and Tyler Lockett are Leading Breakout Candidates
Get a free NFL subscription for 3 days.
Our dear leader has already written a couple posts on the influence of age on early NFL careers for wide receivers, including a linear regression model for projecting second-year fantasy points. I wanted to look at the question from another angle to see if we could find any new nuggets to use for evaluating the potential breakouts of rookie wide receivers. I also used a regression model, but a logistic regression that attempts to predict the answer to a binary dependent variable. In this case, the question we’re trying to answer is whether a receiver who did not have a top-24 (PPR) season as a rookie will break out, or have a top-24 season in his second or third year. We could extend the timeline beyond year three, but I’m emphasizing the benefit of a relatively quick jump in value. I trained and tested the model on 419 wide receivers from 2000-2013 who did not have a top-24 season. Here are the results of the best logistic regression equation I could find.