Figuring Out the NFL Draft is Hard, and That’s Not Likely to Change
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Football is a difficult sport to analyze because there are often a number of factors that stand between the questions you have and getting clear answers to those questions. For example, if you enjoy analyzing wide receiver prospects an infuriating reality is that once your analysis is done that receiver prospect is going to go play for a team where he will be at least in part reliant on the circumstances surrounding him. It’s not just that competition for targets on the team, or the quality of the quarterback situation will impact his results – it’s that you might not ever know whether your pre-draft analysis was good or not because so many things become entangled between the time you make a prediction and the time that you can observe any results. But it’s not just factors on the football field that make the job of analysis difficult. The actual variables that you might reasonably assume go into a player’s success are themselves difficult to pin down. Take for example draft position as a proxy for the NFL’s evaluation of players.