How to Profit in Daily Fantasy NASCAR – Part 6: GPP Strategy – Game Theory
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This is part six of a multi-part series intended to help both newcomers and veterans learn profitable Daily Fantasy NASCAR strategy. In this series Nick Giffen (@RotoDoc) teaches you everything you need to know to jump right into the sport and succeed. Nick holds a Ph.D. in mathematics, has won multiple NASCAR GPP tournaments, and is a two-time qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event Live Final – the King of the Speedway. In part five of this series, I showed the order of operations for identifying drivers for guaranteed prize pool (GPP) events. However, picking which driver or drivers to use from each bucket is the part that will make or break your lineup. This is where game theory comes into play. To build a GPP lineup with a shot of winning, you’ll need to be able to identify which drivers are likely to be highly owned, and which are likely to be rostered only minimally. This way we can zig when others zag, especially at races that tend to be less predictable. For each race, we need to ask ourselves three questions:
- How well can each driver reasonably finish?
- What is their expected ownership percentage?
- What is the expected level of chaos?