Advice

7 Takeaways From Week 3- WR Opportunity Report

This is the third of a weekly series examining the actual fantasy production of wide receivers compared to what they would have been expected to do based on the targets that they saw. Got it? We determine that second part using line of scrimmage data. For a more detailed explanation, here’s the first iteration of this article. Here are the main terms you need to know:
  • FP- This is the raw total number of receiving fantasy points1 a WR scored.
  • reEP- This the total number of receiving fantasy points you would have expected a WR to produce given his targets.
  • reFPOE- This stands for receiving Fantasy Points Over Epectation. This is the difference between FP and reEP. As an example, Antonio Brown scored 28.3 FP in Week 1. His reEP was 15.29. That means he scored 13.01 reFPOE. If you started Antonio Brown in Week 1 you got 13.01 points more than would have been expected given NFL averages.
  • reFPOEPT- The PT stands for per target. So this is just reFPOE divided by the number of targets a player had. Brown had 11 targets, so 13.01 divided by 11 equals 1.18. That’s his reFPOEPT for Week 1.
All of this information comes from the wonderful Fantasy Efficiency App. Here are 7 observations from the Week 3 data.

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By Tim Talmadge | @FullOnTLT | Archive

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  1. Vincent Jackson hasn't really been better this year though, he's just been productive. His reFPOEPT last year -0.13. This year it's -0.14. He's totally reliant on volume at this point.

  2. Numbers skewed by that week 1 disaster vs Titans.

  3. Well sure, but that was supposed to be a cake matchup and he's only played three games.

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