Draft Strategy

3 Breakout Wide Receivers Undervalued at Almost Any Price

We see it frequently. Fantasy owners excessively target rookie wide receivers because they are disappointed about the production of last year’s rookies. Then it happens; the second year wide receiver improves all offseason and comes in ready to blow the top off.

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By Mike Braude | @BraudeM | Archive

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  1. craig says:

    So...is it possible that Adams assumes Jordy's role completely...meaning that he slides right into that spot and gets 100% of Jordy's targets, whiles Cobb's role is completely unchanged?

    I am sure I am wrong about this, but if they keep Cobb in the slot and Adams takes Jordy's spot, is it in the realm of possibility that Adams is now a discount Nelson? In auctions, Nelson goes for $38-42 more or less. Owners are going to be hesitant to drop that cash on Adams. I would think they would want to see more of a track record before they commit to 20% of their budget.

    Anyone smarter than me want to chime in (shouldn't be that hard)?

  2. For me, the big thing is that this receiving pie was going to be split 3 ways. Adams was going to have some standalone value and was going to knock down the target market share for Nelson and Cobb. Whether or not individual drafters had Cobb and Nelson as overrated was going to depend on just how crazy efficient they were projected to be.

    Suddenly we're looking at Cobb and Adams seeing the vast majority of the targets with Janis and Montgomery fighting for scraps. Even if you expect Adams to be less efficient than Nelson - and most people do - he could be safer than Nelson was going to be merely from target volume. Cobb goes from being overvalued to a very safe pick.

  3. craig says:

    This is interesting to me and something I hadn't thought about before.

    Justin - you expect Cobb/Adams to outscore Nelson/Cobb.

    I liked Nelson quite a bit and felt Cobb had some TD regression coming and would lose a few targets to Adams. Is that how you viewed it as well? Also...this must mean you think Adams is going to score quite a few points. In an auction, would you slot him around #12-15 WR or is that too aggressive?

    I am wondering where this situation can be exploited in an auction. To me, Cobb just got more expensive (and a little safer), but Adams now has great potential, but how much are people going to be willing to spend for that. It won't be as much as for Nelson ($38-42ish range), but could you get 90% of Jordy for 65% of the price? All theory, but wondering where you and Shawn are on this from an auction value perspective?

  4. I can't comment on the auction values being questioned as I don't play that format. But I will add my own $.02...

    Let's make up some numbers to represent target/production market share. For the sake of simplicity and just to demonstrate the point, we'll make them nice, round numbers.

    Before Jordy injury:
    Jordy: 35%
    Cobb: 35%
    Adams: 15%
    Lacy, other WRs, TEs: 15%

    After Jordy injury:
    Cobb: 45%
    Adams: 35%
    Lacy, other WRs, TEs: 20%

    Adams is clearly going to be the biggest beneficiary of Jordy's now abandoned 150+ targets and these target's accompanying production. But everyone else gets some piece of the pie spread to them as well.

    So between Jordy/Cobb we could say there was 70% of the GB passing game, while between Cobb/Adams we can say there will be 80% of the passing game. The variable here is if you think Rodgers loses efficiency and overall production - but I don't think that's the case. Rodgers, Cobb, and Adams (imo) are good enough to not have that happen.

  5. Overall targets aside, I think it is reasonable to think that Adams will see an oversized share of TDs as well in 2015 because of the same reasons @FF_Contrarian outlines above. He was targeted in the red zone a ton last year, and did have some drops, but if he is really that much more comfortable in the offense, he could have a sh*tload of TDs this year

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