Draft Strategy

Doubt Brandon Marshall At Your Own Risk

“Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned” -W. Congreve This article is part of an ongoing series that explores ideas related to exploiting recency bias. The first concept, “chasing the dragon,” applies to Rob Gronkowski and Andrew Luck and can be found here. If players outperform their ADPs significantly, it creates a situation where they are drafted near their ceilings in the following year because everyone is infatuated. Betting that last year’s big hit will be this year’s big hit despite a lack of predictability and a dramatic change in price is the kind of natural flaw in thinking that can be used to your advantage. The second concept, exploiting emotionally fueled avoidance, helps us find underpriced assets. I first focused on how this seems to apply to Peyton Manning and Drew Brees; For wide receivers, I think it similarly applies to Brandon Marshall.

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By 14Team Mocker | @14TeamMocker | Archive

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  1. I don't need to mention this, but...

    There has been no shortage of the "zero RB philosophy" love spread across the site. In large part I agree with this. However, I took a slightly different angle on it.

    First, I am speaking dynasty (as those who follow my posts will see - I play dyno almost exclusively... but stil...).

    In a startup this Feb, I drafted in a 12 team PPR (snake format) from the 8th spot. My early draft:

    1. Gronk (my elite-tier WRs were gone)
    2. Graham (not crazy about this pick, but BPA imo - plus this was prior to SEA trade)
    3. ARob (all-aboard!)
    4. BMarsh (the kind of value you just can't pass up - this was, however, pre-NYJ trade)
    5. CJA (what?!?! Really????!!???)
    6. Foster (stud. Obviously, pre-injury)
    7. Tannehill

    8. A week before the SEA trade, I moved Graham for JMatt and ASJ.

    9. While 1.5 was OTC, I moved JMatt straight up for the pick to grab Parker (I like Parker >>> JMatt long-term, but it definitely hurts me this year)
    10. A week after the Foster injury, I moved Gronk, Foster, Ch.Johnson for Le'Veon, Julius
    11. Traded future picks for Devante Adams
    12. Traded ASJ for Tyler Lockett (another all aboard!)
    13. Landed VJax in like the 12th or something ridiculous

    So by following a hybrid zero RB and initially going very TE-heavy, but then through a series of moves, I ended up holding two very strong RBs in Bell, CJA. And I am set at WR with some vets in Marshall, VJax, and some youth and talent/upside in ARob, Parker, Adams. I'm OK with Julius as my TE too.

    Funny how a team can start off, then shift and morph; all over the course of a single off-season.

    But anyways, I heavily digress here. I love BMarsh, even in NY, and think he's a fantastic value play at his price. The injuries last year, coupled with the view of the NYJ, makes him one of the most affordable, but still elite, WRs in the game.

  2. Thanks, Chris.

    I've seen you comment on other articles, do I follow you on Twitter? If not please let me know on there what your @ is. Thanks

  3. @doktorhallam

    Thanks! I will warn you; my Twitter goes through cycles of too much to criminally neglected lol. At my age (41) - I'm still working on getting this whole "social media" thing down at times.

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