Draft Strategy

The Rundown: Todd Gurley, Ray Rice, and More

Stephen Hill

Was busted for posession of drug paraphenilia. Time to add his bust to the Marvin McNutt Memorial For Wide Receivers Who Didn’t Break Out So Good. I guess I’m saying no, there’s not a chance.

Not that Hill was likely to beat him out anyway, but Hill’s likely departure removes a theoretical threat to some Kelvin Benjamin / Devin Funchess targets. Funchess has had an impressive offseason so far.

Eric Berry

Is cancer free and cleared for training camp. Good news for the Chiefs DST. Probably bad news for my hopes for a Tyvon Branch bounce-back season.

Brandon Coleman

Looks good in Saints camp. He’s a player we’ve written about a few times. As a prospect, he projected to have the highest NFL red zone touchdown rate. Higher than Benjamin, higher than Mike Evans, Jordan Matthews, and Allen Robinson. Of course, Coleman didn’t get any playing time last year, but he’s not without promise. Coleman could even be an arbitrage play on Kelvin Benjamin, and although I was a year early, I still think he could be Marques Colston’s eventual replacement.

Justin Forsett

Could get double the receptions he earned last year, according to Rotoworld. Marc Trestman hype is in full effect. Take a look at Forsett’s ADP since MFL10s opened in February.

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That’s enthusiasm, people! But is Forsett still a player to target? According to the Best Ball App, he’s projected to outscore the two running backs drafted ahead of him (LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Hill), suggesting he’d still be a fair pick a round ahead of his current ADP (27th overall).

Todd Gurley

Was  not placed on the Active/PUP list to start training camp. That means he can’t be placed on the IR/Eligible to return list when the season starts. That means he doesn’t have to sit out any games because of injury designation. The Rams may still take it easy with him – and they are still the Jeff Fisher-coached Rams – but it’s looking more and more like Gurley will be active to start the season. Throughout the offseason I’ve bet against him being active right away. Which means it’s also looking more and more like Kevin Cole was right about Gurley.

Denarius Moore

Was singled out as an OTA disappointment…by the Bengals’ own website. Not a good sign for whatever fleeting value he had. With fellow longshot James Wright sent to season-ending IR, Phillip Dorsett doppelganger Mario Alford has a better chance of sticking around.

Vontaze Burfict

Is on the Active / PUP list. He could be reactivated, but even the Bengals are now admitting he’s a longshot for Week 1, and could miss the season. That means lesser-owned AJ Hawk is in line for a meaningful linebacker role this season.

Ray Rice

A national domestic violence group has endorsed the idea that Rice deserves another shot at playing time, and there are rumors that several teams have discussed signing him. Don’t get me wrong, I loathe him personally. But I think he needs to be on the fantasy radar screen. When Rice last played in 2013, he didn’t look that great. But you know what? None of the name brand free agent RBs remaining looked that great.

FREE AGENTSAgeruMSYPCYDS/GTDRTREC/GYPTSIMreFPOEruFPOE
Steven Jackson32543.7247.10.031.35.57.8-0.120.04
Ray Rice28543.08440.023.874.4NA-0.15-0.11
Ahmad Bradshaw29354.6642.40.023.86.411.10.570.12
Chris Johnson29314.2841.40.011.54.47.90.340.11
Shonn Greene29324.1829.920.020.084.334.9-0.440.07
Pierre Thomas30164.9620.30.044.16.99.90.30.28

I used Rice’s 2013 numbers, and 2014 numbers for the rest of the players. The point is that none of them are fantastic. But if there’s a chance that Rice’s 2013 performance was injury-hampered, and that the year away from football was physically restorative, then it’s possible that he could return to action at something closer to his 2012 form. In that case, he’s got much more upside than any of the other free agents.

NAME ruATTS ruFPOEPA reTAR reFPOEPT
Ray Rice 341 0.13 97 0.04

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By Charles Kleinheksel | @ | Archive

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