Quarterback Rankings: Overvalued / Undervalued

Using the Cheat Sheet Calculator and MFL10 ADP, I generated a set of players to target – and avoid. My criteria were simple. I searched for quarterbacks and tight ends drafted in the top 12 at their position, and running backs and wide receivers in the top 24. From there, I identified the three players at each position with the biggest discrepancy – either good or bad – between their ADP rank and projected positional finish. “Equity” represents the positive or negative difference between ADP and projection rank. Up first, quarterbacks.

The Good

Romo, Tony 353.1 108.5 10.5 3 7.5
Kaepernick, Colin 334.3 133 16 9 7
Brady, Tom 341.9 108.5 10.5 6 4.5

I won’t say much about Tom Brady. If he indeed serves his full suspension, that projection will drop quite a bit. But if you’re willing to take the chance1 that his suspension is reduced or eliminated, he offers quite a bit of upside.

Back in June, RotoViz identified Tony Romo as a high upside bargain at his current ADP. Since then, his ADP has held steady, and our staff projections have been completed, slotting Romo as our number three QB for this season.

Colin Kaepernick projects to be a QB1, but at a QB2 ADP. Anthony Amico explains how Kaepernick is a post-hype breakout candidate.

The Bad

Wilson, Russell 341.1 60 3 7 -4
Brees, Drew 320.1 77 5 12 -7
Ryan, Matt 306.3 92.5 8 17 -9

Within the parameters of this exercise, “bad” is a relative thing. Two of these QBs are still projected to finish in the top 12. But they’re also projected to finish worse than their ADP.

A new contract for Russell Wilson might presage an increase in pass attempts. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely to happen at this point.2 Still, it’s hard to be too concerned about a top seven projected finish. His running acumen should keep his floor stable. On the other hand, his fifth round ADP is higher than I’d like to take a quarterback anyway.

Drew Brees is being drafted later than he has been in recent seasons, but RotoViz still has a lower opinion of his prospects than the general consensus. Anthony Amico gives you three reasons to avoid him this season. On the other hand, Justin Bailey points out that Brees has done a lot without much name brand value at the receiving positions before. I think Brees can finish better than QB12, but hitting QB5 might be a stretch.

I think our consensus is that the Falcons will pass less this year. Matt Braude, for one, is down on Matt Ryan’s 2015 prospects. I do think it would be surprising if Ryan fell out of the top 12, as we project, but the downside, in the form of learning a new offense, with a defensive-minded head coach, is real.

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  1. I’m not.  (back)
  2. See my wild-ass guess about where Wilson ends up next year.  (back)
By Charles Kleinheksel | @ | Archive

Comments   Add comment

  1. Three main reasons I see to draft Kaep:

    1. Mean reversion on rushing tds.
    2. Torrey Smith probably has more big play potential than anyone they've had there except Vernon Davis
    3. Some small potential that they run more plays, which would be huge.
  2. I love these articles that have a negative bias towards Brees and Ryan because they help keep them on the board just long enough for me to draft them. Theye are the epitome of ultra safe, league winning qb's. These two guys just keep producing year after year, after year. Go ahead and draft Romo in front of them, you know he is just one hit in back away from a career ending injury. And Kap, he is a great best ball guy but in h2h leagues you can count on too many single digit point weeks from him.

  3. CK says:

    peyton is cheaper than he's been, but still very expensive overall.

    I still have Brees as a top-12 QB, but he's being drafted more like a top-6 QB.

    Ryan concerns me a bit, since after Julio there's not much in the way of reliable weapons.

    Sure, Romo could get hurt. But I also remember when Stafford was injury prone, and hasn't missed a game in years.

    Part of this depends on the number of leagues you're in. If only one, or a few, I'd be more included to go with a "safe" option. But if I'm playing many leagues, I'll stock up on a variety of lower drafted, more variable options.

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