AdviceDraft Strategy

Why Are Smart Players Drafting Dwayne Bowe?

One of the cool things about the new composite projections we’ve been working on is it allows us to sort the players by rank in a given category. Even cooler, we can sort players by the difference between their ADP and projected finish to see who are the biggest bargains or the worst values.

I did just that at the wide receiver position. The three best values? All Cleveland Browns. Brian Hartline, Dwayne Bowe, and Andrew Hawkins are the three biggest values. But should you draft them?

First, here’s a table showing their ADP, projected finish, and the difference between:

WR ADP Projected Finish Difference
Brian Hartline 99 69 30
Dwayne Bowe 61 42 19
Andrew Hawkins 87 68 19

As you can see, the difference between their ADP and projected finish is huge. Hartline is expected to outperform his WR99 ADP by 30 spots and finish as WR69. Bowe and Hawkins are both projected to outperform their ADP by 19 spots.

Now here’s a table with their projected stat lines:

WR FP Receptions Yards TDs
Brian Hartline 118 46 582 2
Dwayne Bowe 181 67 861 5
Andrew Hawkins 122 50 599 2

Bowe is the only one who looks remotely startable in most leagues. For reference, the WR42 last season was Rueben Randle. So that’s about what you’re expecting to get out of Bowe. He’s a bargain at his price, but if you’re in a league where you only have 16 or so total roster spots you might not even want to hang onto him throughout the season. He could outperform his projection, but since we already have him outperforming his ADP by 19 spots it’s hard to be even more optimistic. And obviously if Bowe is only borderline rosterable then Hartline and Hawkins aren’t at all.

So redraft is off the table. But what about best ball leagues? That’s where you should really be targeting these guys, as you’re likely drafting six or more WRs anyway. Since you don’t have to pick when to start them in the late rounds you just want guys who are going to outperform their ADP. MFL10 Expert AJ Bessette recently said on the Numbers Game Podcast that he’s drafting Bowe with every chance he gets. Hawkins’ projected WR68 finish isn’t sexy, but if you’re getting him in the 20th round as your WR8, that’s actually a pretty incredible value for that point of the draft.

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By Justin Winn | @TheHumanHuman | Archive

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