Advice

The Rundown: Albert Wilson, Chris Conley, IDP Notes, and More

Crockett Gillmore, TE

Rotoworld reports Gillmore is up to 275 pounds. Oh. Sounds like a healthy dose of blocking is in his future. Since 1980, here’s the entire list of tight ends over 275 pounds to catch 40 or more passes: Erron Kinney, Eric Green, Kyle Brady, and Dwayne Carswell. That’s it. The last such season was in 2005. Now to be fair, three of those players had more than one 40-plus catch season, and Green went over 900 yards in 1993. But still. Maxx Williams will most likely take time to develop (if he ever does) into a fantasy asset, and it seems much less likely that Gillmore ever will. Look for fantasy production at other positions in Baltimore this year.

Malcom Floyd, WR

According to ESPN, Floyd intends to retire following this season. The retirement isn’t necessarily unexpected – he is 34 and in the final year of his contract. Despite never getting much attention in fantasy land, over his past three seasons, he finished as PPR WR 39, 35, and 37, and showed a knack for producing big games (along with duds) that helped owners win weeks. He also averaged 82 targets in those three seasons, so there’s some opportunity in 2016 for another WR to pick up some usage.

Who are the likely candidates? Keenan Allen will still be there. The only other WRs under contract in 2016? Javontee Herndon, Torrence Allen, and…Stevie Johnson. Johnson will be 30 then. Although he was efficient (if under used) in San Francisco, it’s hard to get excited about a 30 year old WR next year. What’s more likely is that the Chargers draft and/or sign a significant free agent. According to Over the Cap, San Diego has a lot of cap flexibility going forward. My assumption is that if you own Keenan Allen, you likely spent a decent amount to acquire him. Stevie Johnson, not so much. So, insofar as the acquisition of a significant WR next season could hurt Allen, I’d be inclined to sell early. That same acquisition would likely hurt Johnson, but since he cost less to begin with, holding onto him won’t hurt so much. Conversely, if the Chargers don’t add a major WR next year, both Allen and Johnson benefit. That’s a long way of saying it’s reasonable to hold Johnson in both scenarios, but only one offers the potential for benefit to Allen.

Damorious Randall, CB & Sean Richardson, S

Looks like Randall is practicing at, and will be classified as a cornerback. That hurts his IDP stock, but makes things clearer in the Packers’ defensive backfield. Although he’s still a back up to Morgan Burnett, it looks like Sean Richardson could be someone to keep on your radar screen. Remember, the Raiders tried to sign him away as a restricted free agent, but Green Bay matched the above market value offer. It looks like he still figures in their plans at safety. He’s been simply a depth player to this point, but it’s not uncommon for safeties to take awhile to produce in the NFL. Richardson could be a valuable player if he earns playing time or if a Burnett misses time. And he looks good athletically.

Albert Wilson, & Chris Conley, WRs

The Chiefs just spent a top 100 pick on Chris Conley. While rookie fever is still strong, the underrated Wilson has maybe been forgotten by your league mates. I think there’s a few reasons to acquire or hold him in dynasty. Let’s look at their prospect profiles.1

Player Ht Wt 40 Vert RuYPG RecYPG msRECYDS msRECTD BOA
Albert Wilson 69 202 4.4 37.5 21 98 0.39 0.44 22
Chris Conley 74 213 4.35 45 0 40 0.25 0.33 21

Conley is much taller, but only about 10 pounds heavier. Conley also has better weight-adjusted speed, but Wilson’s is still above-average for his size. Wilson was also a more productive college player at a younger age. Wilson’s ability to run the ball in college could also indicate that he’s a bit of a glitch in the matrix, who compares favorably to Randall Cobb, TY Hilton, and Kendall Wright. Conley might jump off the page athletically, but his underwhelming age-adjusted college production is cause for concern. Last year, Martavis Bryant entered the league with similar concerns, only to post some ridiculous numbers. Bryant is now going at pick 45 in dynasty start ups. Combine that with his draft status and Conley likely has more upside than Wilson. But there’s no guarantee he’s Martavis Bryant redux, and first he has to beat out the younger, more productive Wilson. If you miss out on, or just aren’t sold on, Conley, perhaps Wilson makes a nice arbitrage play.

Junior Galette, LB

The Saints’ Galette suffered a potentially serious pectoral injury recently, and could miss significant time. That would give a bump to the dynasty stock of Davis Hull. Remember, the Saints were already disappointed in Galette’s off-field issues, so they may not be in a rush to get him back on the field.

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  1. BOA is breakout age.  (back)
By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive

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