Advice

Why Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker Are Both Undervalued

“‘Cause the players gonna play, play, play, play, play And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate”
I feel very little shame in saying that Taylor Swift may get how I feel about the Jets receivers better than anyone else on planet Earth. Right now it seems that people are afraid to draft them due to concerns about the Jets as a franchise. As a result, both Brandon Marshall (WR24) and Eric Decker (WR39) are being undervalued right now in drafts, and I’m here to prove it to you.

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By Anthony Amico | @amicsta | Archive

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  1. I have a very real suspicion that the fantasy community is inversely valuing Marshall and Decker. Brandon Marshall is a 31 year old WR who was already moved to the slot by his former team (i.e. where stud WRs in decline go so they can still contribute) while Eric Decker is 28, was better than most people realize last year especially given the dumpster fire of a team he was on.

    Historically Gailey's offense has supported one productive pass catcher (WR or TE) as @amicsta points out with Gonzo, Bowe and Johnson getting between 23% and 29% of their teams target market shares (most years being much closer to 29% than 23%).

    Lets assume for a moment that Decker, who actually beat out Marshall in pretty much every efficency metric last year while on a markedly worse offense with worse QB, that Decker actually is the WR 1 for the Jets with a market share of targets in the range of Gailey's other leading pass catchers. I think this sets him up for 140+ targets with Marshall actually struggling to get much above 110.

    Extrapolated I actually see Decker pushing to top 12 at his position with these numbers while Marshall actually could fail to break to top 36. With Marshall being selected in the early part of the 5th round and Decker lingering into the 11th this represents an enormous value disparity.

    Needless to say Decker will likely be on every team I draft this year on the chance this turns out to be true alone.

    My early prediction:

    Decker 140/87/1180/9.5
    Marshall 105/63/800/5.3

  2. Its funny that you say that, because I actually projected Decker as the Jets leader in targets as well, albeit not to the same extent. I will probably be drafting him a bit more than Marshall, but I expect to own shares of both

  3. I am all aboard the Chan express. I am trying to cheaply acquire all Jets offensive players.

  4. It does seem like Decker could be the real beneficiary here. I also have dreams of Jace Amaro in the Tony Gonzalez role. In an offense where Geno is still a question mark - and I say that as a big fan - it seems like the cheaper options in Decker and Amaro are a way to get at the potential upside while minimizing the risk.

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