Advice

The Rundown: Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi

Lamar Miller

In an ESPN mailbag for Dolphins fans, Dolphins reporter James Walker was asked if he thought Lamar Miller’s workload would increase this year:

Should Lamar Miller get more carries? Yes. That was painfully evident last season when the Dolphins seemingly kept Miller on a pitch count, even when he was having a strong game. Miller rushed for 1,099 yards but probably could’ve had 1,300 yards if he got about five more attempts per game. Will Miller get more carries in 2015? That’s a different question. For three years, Miami’s coaching staff has never viewed Miller as a bell cow or workhorse running back. As soon as Miller gets up to maybe 12-15 carries, Dolphins’ coaches get conservative with him. It’s hard to say that philosophy will suddenly change. The Dolphins also are very optimistic rookie tailback Jay Ajayi can carry some of the load as long as he stays healthy.

NAMEruATTSruATTMSruEPruFPOEruFPOEPA
DeMarco Murray4360.786204.187.50.2
Marshawn Lynch2940.534141.7472.160.25
Justin Forsett2740.548125.6865.820.24
Jamaal Charles2050.54193.5264.880.32
Jeremy Hill2350.458117.6159.490.25
Le'Veon Bell2900.687125.1758.930.2
Arian Foster2600.575121.2151.390.2
Lamar Miller2150.542106.4951.210.24
C.J. Anderson1970.4990.0550.850.26
Eddie Lacy2650.569128.4450.360.19
Jonathan Stewart2130.46491.8432.660.15
Alfred Morris2650.661124.9630.440.11
Tre Mason1790.61772.0828.420.16
Frank Gore2540.54103.8827.920.11
Mark Ingram2260.681126.2524.150.11
LeSean McCoy3140.66140.1621.740.07
Chris Ivory1990.39398.7719.030.1
Matt Asiata1640.42592.2118.790.11
Giovani Bernard1710.40681.8416.760.1
Joique Bell2360.593116.5315.170.06
Terrance West1700.4176.9613.440.08
Chris Johnson1550.30659.3912.910.08
Andre Williams2160.482103.919.790.05
Matt Forte2650.753130.719.690.04
Steven Jackson1900.53499.657.050.04
Branden Oliver1600.47369.446.760.04
Bishop Sankey1530.4364.634.570.03
Rashad Jennings1670.50988.02-0.120
Andre Ellington2010.69184.41-0.410
Darren McFadden1540.45871.11-6.11-0.04
Trent Richardson1600.39478.4-8.5-0.05
Alfred Blue1700.30971.69-8.89-0.05

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This is one of those classic cases where fantasy owners think one thing *should* happen, but front offices may think otherwise. Miller’s production didn’t see much of a drop against tougher run defenses and he was one of the most efficient running backs last season among RBs who received at least 150 carries. Miller finished as RB9 in standard scoring leagues last season despite receiving anywhere between 30 to 221 fewer carries than the backs who finished ahead of him. Miller never carried the ball more than 20 times in a single game and he had 15 or less carries in 11 of their 16 games. Just think what Miller could’ve potentially been if given three to five more attempts per game? It should also be noted that Miller is up to 225 pounds this season after playing at 218 pounds last year.

The Dolphins did spend a fifth round pick on Jay Ajayi in this years draft. He could eat into Miller’s workload provided his knee doesn’t give him any troubles. Ajayi’s knee issues were the reason he dropped on so many teams draft boards this May. Shawn Siegele wonders if Ajayi is the No. 1 fantasy RB prospect in 2015 and Dr. Jeff Budoff thinks Ajayi’s knee is definitely a problem. There’s still a long-shot RB on the Dolphin’s roster that Fantasy Douche thinks has Arian Foster upside.

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By Justin Bailey | @BustinJaileyFI | Archive

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