Opportunity Scores Part 2: The Top Destinations for Rookie Running Backs

Kevin Cole
April 27, 2015

Last week I used the relationship between team passing-game ADPs to calculate how undervalued each team’s receivers are compared to their quarterback. Since we’re in the thick of draft season, I also realized that we could also use that calculation, which I called an “opportunity score”, to identify which teams are the most favorable destinations for rookies receivers. The logic is fairly intuitive: teams with QBs that are viewed much more favorably by drafters than their receivers should provide less receiving competition and more opportunity for a rookie receiver. Unfortunately, we do not have a proxy for drafters’ prospective view of a team’s rushing game production like QB ADP is for the passing game. I decided that the team ranks for last year’s total running back production was a close substitute, as generally a QB’s ADP in the early offseason primarily reflects his team’s passing production from the prior year.

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Kevin Cole

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