Playing the Odds: Opportunity Knocks for DeVante Parker
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You can probably file this post in the “you’re overthinking it, dude,” category. Nonetheless, this is our thing at RotoViz, a site that’s published 300+ articles before the NFL draft. I got an idea after looking through Brian Burke’s new Bayesian draft model over at his Advanced Football Analytics site. The model gives you pick-by-pick probabilities for where each prospect will be drafted. Now, the model is new and the inputs are limited, but it gave me some data to use in conjunction with my receiver opportunity scores to calculate a probabilistic estimate of how much production opportunity each top rookie wide receiver will have this year.