Top 10 Takeaways from Week 7: The QB Opportunity Report
The idea of these reports is to leverage the fantastic Fantasy Efficiency App to give us some sense as to which players are producing more (or fewer) fantasy points than expected based on their usage.
Terms you’ll need to know.
paEP- The amount of expected points from a quarterback given their opportunity
paFPOE- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected. Calculated by subtracting the paEP from the actual amount of fantasy points scored.
paFPOEA- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected per attempt. Calculated by dividing the paFPOE by passes attempted.
Let’s take a look at some notable Week 7 performances.
- Peyton Manning set the all-time record for touchdown passes in week 7, passing for four in Denver’s blowout win on Sunday Night Football. Since joining the Broncos before the 2012 season began, Manning is leading the league in paFPOE with 344.55. The next closest is Drew Brees with 259.83. Manning is tied with Aaron Rodgers in paFPOEA at 0.24 over that same time period. As I stated earlier, Manning tossed four TDs in his record-breaking performance and turned in the second best paFPOE of the week and has passed Philip Rivers for the season lead in paFPOE.
- Manning stole some thunder from the week’s best performer, Tony Romo, who posted a ridiculous 0.85 paFPOEA. Romo posted the highest paFPOEA on the week with just the 29th-best paFP number. This was his fifth consecutive game posting a positive paFPOE and he’s moved himself into the top four in paFPOE on the season. It appears that Romo is fully recovered from the offseason back surgery and should be an every week starter.
- Matthew Stafford had the most opportunity Sunday with a 17.61 paEP. He turned in a performance that was almost exactly as expected. I mentioned in the Week 5 edition, that Stafford had struggled without his number one target Calvin Johnson, but his efficiency numbers in the two full games without Johnson have been positive. He will need a high paEP number in games where Megatron is inactive if he is going to perform at or slightly above expectations. He currently ranks 13th in total paEP on the season.
- Leading the league in opportunity through seven weeks is Andrew Luck. He has posted a 132.82 paEP and leads the leagues in attempts at 295. Despite leading the league in expected points by 22, Luck is fifth in paFPOE on the season. His high volume will continue to make him valuable.
- Last week, Russell Wilson had one of the three worst performances of his young career. This week he finished seventh in paEP and eighth in paFPOE. Not only was he extremely efficient passing the ball, but he was the most efficient runner of the week. Not most efficient running QB, but the most efficient rushing performance of the week, period, with a 13.84 ruFPOE. Wilson now ranks fourth among QBs with 75-plus attempts in paFPOEA at 0.22.
- Playing in only three games this season due to a nerve issue in his shoulder, Carson Palmer is 16th in total paFPOE for the season. He ranks 32nd in paEP and has yet to post a negative paFPOE in his three games. Since their bye week in 2013, Palmer has played in 11 games. In those games he has a paEP of 156.11, paFPOE 52.57 and paFPOEA of .13. That’s a stout 11-game stretch.
- Drew Brees posted his second-best paFPOE performance of the year this week with a 9.12. He still ranks 11th in paEP and 12th in paFPOE on the season which would indicate that the opportunity is there for him, his season total paFPOE of 26.82 is his lowest through seven weeks since the 2010 season. His up and down year could continue as he shows up in the sell portion of the Buy Low Machine between now and Week 13.
- Jay Cutler had a tough day this week. He didn’t have much opportunity with just an 11.66 paEP, his lowest of the season. He made it worse with a -1.06 paFPOE. Depsite the small opportunity, Cutler is still second in the league with 110.82 paEP on the season. Week 7 marked only the second time this season that Cutler posted a paFPOE in the negative. As long as he plays close to expectation, as he has this season, he will give you the production you need on opportunity alone.
- Since his week four dud, Tom Brady has been on an absolute tear. In Weeks 5 through 7 he ranks second to only to Peyton Manning in paFPOE. Week 7 was more of the same for Brady, ranking fourth in paFPOE and paFPOEA with the 13th highest paEP. I touched on his future schedule last week.
- Kyle Orton took over for EJ Manuel in Week 5. In the weeks since he’s taken over his paEP ranks 13th, 11th, and sixth. He has a solid paFPOE at 10.86 with no negative performances. The most intriguing number to me is he ranks second in attempts since he took the starting job in week five. His paFPOEA is unspectacular at 0.09, but if he continues to throw as much as he is he can be a nice bye week fill in for you.