Top 10 Takeaways from Week 6: The QB Opportunity Report
The idea of these reports is to leverage the fantastic Fantasy Efficiency App to give us some sense as to which players are producing more (or fewer) fantasy points than expected based on their usage.
Terms you’ll need to know.
paEP- The amount of expected points from a quarterback given their opportunity
paFPOE- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected. Calculated by subtracting the paEP from the actual amount of fantasy points scored.
paFPOEA- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected per attempt. Calculated by dividing the paFPOE by passes attempted.
Let’s take a look at some notable Week 6 performances.
- Joe Flacco took back the honor of “Highest single season paFPOE” this week by posting a robust 25.62 number and adding almost a full point, 0.95, per attempt.
- Derek Carr had the best fantasy game of his young career with the week’s third highest total efficiency number. He posted this number with only the 20th best opportunity number at 11.79 paEP.
- Andrew Luck had the most opportunity with 19.62 expected points on his 44 attempts. His season total paEP is 119.531 and is fifth in total paFPOE for the season. Luck also leads the league in attempts with 255.
- Since Tom Brady’s dreadful week three performance, he has posted three consecutive positive paFPOE performances. Week 6 was by far his best of the season with a 21.31 paFPOE. You may want to stash Brady after his week eight meeting with the Jets as New England has the lowest (most difficult) strength of schedule (SOS) Score in the Buy Low Machine between weeks 8-13. I suggest a stash because New England then has the highest (easiest) SOS Score in weeks 14-16, making him a candidate to start your fantasy playoff games.
- It’s possible I spoke too soon when I said to auto-stream QB against the Browns in last week’s article. After Charlie Whitehurst posted a double-digit paFPOE, the Browns Defense took it out on Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben posted a -5.06, his second worst number for the year. Ben has a tough schedule going forward with only two more “green” matchups on the schedule for the rest of the season.
- Russell Wilson had a rare tough week. Wilson posted a -6.16 paFPOE this week with just 9.2 paEP. His ruFPOE of 5.81 salvaged what would have been a putrid outing. You would have to go back to week four of Wilson’s rookie year to find a worse performance in terms of total paFPOE.
- Carson Palmer was solid in his return from a nerve injury in his shoulder. He proved there are no lasting effects with 42 attempts and posted a solid .16 paFPOEA, which ranked 13th among starters.
- Philip Rivers continues his efficient season. He maintained his number one spot in total paFPOE and added another strong this week with a 10.04, narrowly missing out on the top five.
- Just as Eli Manning got everyone’s hopes up, he promptly laid an egg. On national television no less. He posted the 4th worst paFPOE on the week and if that wasn’t bad enough, he has the second worst SOS Score over the between now and week 13.
- Rookie Teddy Bridgewater had a forgettable day in his second career start. He had the worst total paFPOE on the week. He does, howoever, have the highest SOS Score between now and week 13.
- nobody else has more than 100 (back)