The Rundown: Cordarrelle Patterson, Russell Wilson, and More


New York Giants

At the moment, Daniel Fells is your starting tight end. Probably not ideal if you’re the Giants. Unless Adrien Robinson quickly leapfrogs him (and in order to that he probably needs to lose some weight, as he reported to camp at 276 pounds), neither Giants’ tight end is worthy of a fantasy roster spot. Add to that the potential for a three-headed running back rotation, and the Giants offense looks like a veritable fantasy minefield.

No great insight there, but what it does suggest is that the Giants really will need to run more 3 wide receiver sets, meaning Rueben Randle really will play starter snaps. For that matter, Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr should see significant and stable target numbers, since neither the tight end nor running back positions look to garner very many.

This is Interesting

Seattle Seahawks

Field Gulls has posted another article looking at SPARQ ratings for Seahawks’ players. The article, and the blog, are worth your attention.  According to their analysis of Seattle’s draft picks and SPARQ methodology, Luke Willson is the most athletic tight end on their roster. Interestingly, it looks like Seattle values explosion (broad jump and vertical) at the tight end position, and speed and arm length at wide receiver.

The average Seattle receiver has 32.6″ arms, while the average NFL WR comes in at 31.6″. The 5 departed receivers also measure at 31.6″. Considering the standard deviation for arm length is 1.5″, the current roster comes in at the 75th percentile.

Field Gulls gives our Red Flag Rookie to Acquire and Keenan Allen Candidate Paul Richardson some attention as well, comping him to TY Hilton and DeSean Jackson, among others. Oh- and the redwood hot tub has the highest SPARQ score of any player drafted in the past two years.

The SPARQ series at Field Gulls is great reading; check it out. As for takeaways, here’s mine: Russell Wilson. Here’s my thinking. Wilson is already a top ten fantasy quarterback, and has an affordable ADP. So that’s the baseline. What happens if Seattle suddenly needs to open things up on offense? Or their running game takes a step back? Their roster is littered with athletic, explosive play makers. Rather than try to guess which play maker will benefit the most, just target Wilson, as a way to capture the upside of the entire offense.

This is Interesting, Part II

Sports Injury Predictor provides a free-to-access database of player injury history. For example, here’s the page on Julio Jones, whom the site ranks as one of 2014s five most-likely-to-be-injured receivers. If you’re concerned, I profiled some ADP Arbitrage opportunities here.

Cordarelle Patterson

R.C. Fischer, noted football metrics curmudgeon, recently ran an article about wide receivers running the ball, as a follow up to a Cordarelle Patterson apology.

Patterson will probably run 3-4 Fantasy points per game behind the top WRs in a PPR league. However, (we assume) he will pick up 20-30+ yards rushing per game, and could score 3-4+ rushing TDs in a season. If he does rack up those kinds of rushing numbers, that will add another 3-5 Fantasy PPG as a runner. He can afford to be 3-4-5 points per game worse than the top Fantasy WRs via passing tallies only, but he can make all of that up as a runner. How could I be so blind?

He goes on to note that historically, wide receiver rushing attempts in the NFL were very rare, and limited to the “waterbug” type small receivers. Fischer provides some context for the surprising success bigger receivers have had running the ball in limited opportunities, and notes that this could be a harbinger of things to come.

To literally hand their best player the ball…meaning they have the ball in their hands guaranteed for that play, versus 50-70% success through the sky…when they were actually targeted…and not double-covered.

What Cordarrelle Patterson is doing as a ‘runner’ at 6’2″, 215+ is freakish. He’s Adrian Peterson-sized running the ball. This is not normal. The potential/opportunity of bigger WRs running the ball on purpose, by design, was probably waiting to be unleashed all along, but coaches had no foresight for it.

Both articles should be required reading. The problem with projecting Patterson is how to account for his rushing ability. Is it a gimmicky, best-left-in-college accoutrement, or a vital, advantageous skill, waiting to be exploited?

Patterson has been the subject of much debate on this site as well. Most recently, we covered the case for his breakout, the enthusiasm Greg Jennings has for Patterson’s upside, and the challenge presented by his current ADP.

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By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive

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