Eric Decker, Chris Johnson and Forecasting the Jets Offense Using the Projection Machine
As predicted, Smith is getting the early nod as the starting quarterback for the New York Jets. Here’s a fun exercise using the Projection Machine. Set the point margin to -4.5, based on Vegas lines. Set the pass tendency to equal the 25th percentile. Set the quarterback rushing percentage to 0.15.1 That’s just above the 75th percentile, but lower than Smith’s rate from last season.2
Those settings still leave the Jets well below league average in pass tendency and offensive pace. The result? A projected finish as a fringe QB1, quite a bargain at his current ADP of QB27. You need to know more about Geno Smith. Fortunately, we’ve covered him a lot; here’s the rundown:
- Why he should be the 2014 starter
- The significance of last year’s poor receiving corps
- Peyton Manning or Browning Nagle?
- How adding Eric Decker helps
- His rookie year was better than you think
- He was kinda awesome for 8 games
- Geno for MVP, Part I
- Geno for MVP, Part II
In addition I also set the following WR1 settings to the average of last season’s Jets’ WR1 and Eric Decker’s career averages: catch rate 0.63 and touchdown rate 0.075. The result? A better-than-ADP projection. This projection – low end WR1/high end WR2 – doesn’t seem unreasonable. The projection calls for 125 targets. That’s well over Jeremy Kerley’s team-leading 72 targets last season. I humbly submit that Decker is a better receiver than Kerley, and will garner a higher number of targets. A 125-target season would have ranked 25th last year, right between DeSean Jackson and Cecil Shorts. Given the talent depth between Decker and the rest of the Jets’ wideouts, this seems like an easily achievable number of targets.
Decker has been covered a fair bit as well. Here’s the rundown:
- The ADP gift that keeps on giving.
- Why his breakout was inevitable.
- Decker is a mid-round target
- Decker is a big-game best-ball target
- Four rookies with Decker-like upside
For CJ?K I employed a method similar to what I used with Decker. I averaged Johnson’s 2013 performance with the performance of the Jets’ 2013 leading running back, and set the filters accordingly: 4.2 yards/carry, 0.02 touchdown rate, 0.7 catch rate, 5.8 yards/target. Here’s the projection.
That projection works out to about 13.7 points/game. That’s remarkably similar to the projection that both the RB Sim App and Football Perspective generated for Johnson. So three different methodologies, three similar projections helps me feel fairly confident in this number. Johnson, however, is a polarizing player, and projections for him vary quite a bit. Our own projections are similarly divided. Check our Team RotoViz opinions below.
- Projecting Chris Johnson’s 2014
- Which Chris to own in the Jets backfield
- The RB Report
- The Ultimate Zero RB Watchlist
- Strategy: Pairing RB Teammates
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- In line with last year’s percentage. (back)
- Additional settings: Set WR2 & WR3 assumptions to represent David Nelson and Jeremy Kerley based on 2013; set RB2 assumptions to represent Chris Ivory 2013; WR1 (Decker) and RB1 (Johnson) filters described below; set TE1 (Amaro) settings just below league median. (back)