The Composite Re-draft WR Rankings
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The graph below is a visual representation of the positional make-up of the top 12 in ADP for each season going back to 2000. You can see that the first round run on RBs peaked in 2005, slowly declined from there except for a brief resurgence in 2013, and that RBs make up the smallest share of first round picks at any time in recent fantasy history. You can also see from the graph that ADP in 2014 has seen more than twice the number of WRs go compared to any time in recent fantasy history. One of the most reliable things in fantasy football is that owners will try to win leagues this year using last year’s strategy. I’ve been guilty of that in the past. In 2011, hot off a league win that Arian Foster had carried me to, I spent most of my time looking for the next Arian Foster and landed erroneously on Felix Jones. In 2012 lots of people jumped on the early round QB strategy only to see RBs enjoy their resurgence. If I had to bet, I would say that when we look back at 2014, we won’t be talking about how drafting WR in the first round was the key to being a league winner. That’s because the way that markets correct themselves negates the advantage of last year’s strategy. When people drafted QBs early in 2012 they sucked the actual value out of those QBs. Last year going RB early was popular even though the reason people felt comfortable doing it was not related to scarcity, it was related to what turned out to be a false feeling of safety. So when you’re forming your WR strategy this year, I do think it’s worth remembering that last year already happened. We can’t draft a team and use it to win a league in 2013. We have to figure out how to win a league in 2014. Last year I came really close to figuring out that RB/RB was a trap, even though I ultimately failed because 1) I ended up going RB/RB (and in some cases RB/RB/RB/RB) in about half of my leagues despite my reservations, and 2) I didn’t actually identify the correct alternate strategy as I thought that perhaps it might be a good time to take advantage of a cyclical low in the QB market. But I’ll be back at the drawing board this year trying to figure out if there’s a strategy that makes more sense than going WR early. The rankers are: FD = Fantasy Douche, DM = Davis Mattek, MF = Matthew Freedman, SS = Shawn Siegele, SS2 = Scott Smith,JK = Jim Kloet, BF = Bryan Fontaine, AM = Aaron Messing, JB = Justin Bailey, CR = the Composite Ranking