As we’ve stated, Smith appears to be the presumed starter unless he falters and Vick is simply better. That hasn’t been the case. While Vick has oscillated between “good” and “awful,” Smith seems to be consistently better this offseason, with a few minor hiccups. That’s the read I’m getting on the situation, from hearing what his teammates and the beat reporters have had to say. With Smith getting the bulk of the reps in training camp, let’s see if he can continue this streak of good news.
You should probably be careful about actually considering any news coming out of OTAs, maybe with the exception of news that impacts the order of the depth chart.
For instance, news which sounds like “Jon Baldwin made a number of impressive catches today” is probably not actionable because who the hell knows what that even means. But news that impacts the order of the depth chart is certainly actionable. That’s not to say that future changes couldn’t occur, but the information itself is actionable.
Maybe an interesting example to think about is the Broncos’ backfield last year. The news that came out of OTAs and training camp was accurate. The team did try to let Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball win the starting job. That was evident based on the fact that they ran 1st and 2nd during Week 1. They just couldn’t hold onto the job. Before you say “yeah, but we should know when that will happen just based on talent” I would say to be careful. These teams have things they want to do, and they get to see the players more closely than we do. It’s pretty dismissive of our information disadvantage to say that we know the talent order on the depth chart better than they do.
In the case of Geno Smith, I am very interested to see if he wins the job. If he won the job and could manage to be not horrible, he really might be your late round QB ticket in 2014. He would be the best late round option too because he would be so cheap to acquire and yet he can score with his legs or his arm. It’s also easy to forget that Geno was used to throwing the ball a lot in college. In fact when he came into the league people didn’t expect that he would be able to use his legs like he did last year.
I should say that I’m going to keep my expectations regarding Geno in some kind of reasonable range. I want to get him for free, then be ok if he sucks, but come out looking like a champ if he doesn’t suck.