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jjwatt

One of the things I want to have a handle on, before I finalize any rankings for 2014, is some sense as to which defenses will be improving or declining. This information will hopefully be valuable for a few reasons. First, there’s a chance I might be able to find a great fantasy defense based on the information I find. Last year I owned KC in every league and they were almost as valuable for me as Josh Gordon was. However, I’m willing to admit I may have just gotten lucky with that pick. But I also plan to use the information to pick my QB, as I try to settle on one that will have to score to keep pace with a horrible defense. Another application is that I can incorporate defense quality into an improved Strength of Schedule expectation.

The first part of my research is to look into recent draft pick trends. I looked at the three most recent drafts for all 32 teams and then came up with an expected defensive value from that draft using some rough historical averages for the value of each pick (I used PFR’s CARAV metric). Then I totaled up the value of each team’s picks over the previous three years. That gave me the following table which is sorted by defensive expected value per team. It’s worth noting that the number I’m using is just the expectation. Dion Jordan is already behind the expectation, so looking at actual results could change this analysis. However, I still think this is a valuable exercise.

Year
Round
Pick
Player
Position
Tm
College
Exp CARAV
Team Total
201419Anthony BarrOLBMINUCLA41.27272.92
2013123Sharrif FloydDTMINFlorida34.54272.92
2013125Xavier RhodesDBMINFlorida St.33.66272.92
2012129Harrison SmithFSMINNotre Dame31.96272.92
2012366Josh RobinsonDBMINCentral Florida19.85272.92
2014372Scott CrichtonDEMINOregon St.18.57272.92
20134120Gerald HodgesLBMINPenn St.12.18272.92
20125139Robert BlantonDBMINNotre Dame10.79272.92
20146182Antone ExumCBMINVirginia Tech8.69272.92
20146184Kendall JamesCBMINMaine8.61272.92
20127210Audie ColeLBMINNorth Carolina St.7.78272.92
20137213Michael MautiLBMINPenn St.7.70272.92
20127219Trevor GuytonDEMINCalifornia7.55272.92
20147220Shamar StephenDTMINConnecticut7.53272.92
20147223Brandon WattsOLBMINGeorgia Tech7.47272.92
20147225Jabari PriceCBMINNorth Carolina7.42272.92
20137229Everett DawkinsDTMINFlorida St.7.35272.92
2014113Aaron DonaldDTSTLPittsburgh39.25257.60
2012114Michael BrockersDTSTLLSU38.76257.60
2013130Alec OgletreeLBSTLGeorgia31.55257.60
2012239Janoris JenkinsDBSTLNorth Alabama28.05257.60
2014241Lamarcus JoynerCBSTLFlorida St.27.33257.60
2012365Trumaine JohnsonDBSTLMontana20.08257.60
2013371T.J. McDonaldFSSTLUSC18.77257.60
20144110Maurice AlexanderSSSTLUtah St.13.19257.60
20135149Brandon McGeeDBSTLMiami (FL)10.16257.60
20146188E.J. GainesCBSTLMissouri8.45257.60
20127209Aaron BrownLBSTLHawaii7.80257.60
20147241C.B. BryantFSSTLOhio St.7.15257.60
20147249Michael SamDESTLMissouri7.05257.60
2014121Ha Ha Clinton-DixFSGNBAlabama35.45248.65
2013126Datone JonesDEGNBUCLA33.23248.65
2012128Nick PerryDEGNBUSC32.38248.65
2012251Jerel WorthyDTGNBMichigan St.23.97248.65
2012262Casey HaywardDBGNBVanderbilt20.81248.65
2014385Khyri ThorntonDTGNBSouthern Miss16.17248.65
20144121Carl BradfordOLBGNBArizona St.12.09248.65
20124132Mike DanielsDTGNBIowa11.25248.65
20124133Jerron McMillianSSGNBMaine11.18248.65
20135159Micah HydeDBGNBIowa9.64248.65
20125163Terrell ManningLBGNBNorth Carolina St.9.47248.65
20135167Josh BoydDEGNBMississippi St.9.30248.65
20136193Nate PalmerLBGNBIllinois St.8.28248.65
20146197Demetri GoodsonCBGNBBaylor8.15248.65
20137232Sam BarringtonLBGNBSouth Florida7.29248.65
2012121Chandler JonesDENWESyracuse35.45243.04
2012125Dont'a HightowerLBNWEAlabama33.66243.04
2014129Dominique EasleyDTNWEFlorida31.96243.04
2012248Tavon WilsonFSNWEIllinois24.93243.04
2013252Jamie CollinsLBNWESouthern Miss23.65243.04
2013383Logan RyanDBNWERutgers16.53243.04
2012390Jake BequetteDENWEArkansas15.38243.04
2013391Duron HarmonDBNWERutgers15.24243.04
20126197Nate EbnerDBNWEOhio St.8.15243.04
20146198Zach MooreDENWEConcordia-St.Paul (MN)8.12243.04
20146206Jemea ThomasCBNWEGeorgia Tech7.88243.04
20127224Alfonzo DennardDBNWENebraska7.45243.04
20137226Michael BuchananDENWEIllinois7.40243.04
20137235Steve BeauharnaisLBNWERutgers7.24243.04
2014117C.J. MosleyILBBALAlabama37.31242.61
2013132Matt ElamFSBALFlorida30.73242.61
2012235Courtney UpshawLBBALAlabama29.55242.61
2014248Timmy JerniganNTBALFlorida St.24.93242.61
2013256Arthur BrownLBBALKansas St.22.44242.61
2014379Terrence BrooksFSBALFlorida St.17.24242.61
2013394Brandon WilliamsDTBALMissouri Southern14.85242.61
20134129John SimonDEBALOhio St.11.46242.61
20124130Christian ThompsonFSBALSouth Carolina St.11.39242.61
20144134Brent UrbanDTBALVirginia11.12242.61
20125169Asa JacksonDBBAL9.22242.61
20136200Kapron Lewis-MooreDEBALNotre Dame8.06242.61
20127236DeAngelo TysonDEBALGeorgia7.22242.61
20137247Marc AnthonyDBBALCalifornia7.07242.61
201319Dee MillinerDBNYJAlabama41.27238.59
2013113Sheldon RichardsonDTNYJMissouri39.25238.59
2012116Quinton CoplesDENYJNorth Carolina37.79238.59
2014118Calvin PryorFSNYJLouisville36.84238.59
2012377Demario DavisLBNYJArkansas St.17.61238.59
2014380Dexter McDougleCBNYJMaryland17.06238.59
20145154Jeremiah GeorgeILBNYJIowa St.9.88238.59
20126187Josh BushDBNYJWake Forest8.49238.59
20146195Brandon DixonCBNYJNW Missouri St.8.21238.59
20146210IK EnemkpaliDENYJLouisiana Tech7.78238.59
20147233Trevor ReillyOLBNYJUtah7.27238.59
20127242Antonio AllenSSNYJSouth Carolina7.14238.59
2012112Fletcher CoxDTPHIMississippi St.39.75226.87
2014126Marcus SmithDEPHILouisville33.23226.87
2012246Mychal KendricksLBPHICalifornia25.59226.87
2012259Vinny CurryDEPHIMarshall21.59226.87
2013367Bennie LoganDTPHILSU19.63226.87
20144101Jaylen WatkinsCBPHIFlorida14.08226.87
20124123Brandon BoykinDBPHIGeorgia11.92226.87
20135136Earl WolffSSPHINorth Carolina St.10.99226.87
20145141Taylor HartDEPHIOregon10.66226.87
20145162Ed ReynoldsFSPHIStanford9.51226.87
20137212Joe KrugerDEPHIUtah7.72226.87
20137218Jordan PoyerDBPHIOregon St.7.58226.87
20147224Beau AllenDTPHIWisconsin7.45226.87
20137239David KingDEPHIOklahoma7.18226.87
2013118Eric ReidFSSFOLSU36.84226.87
2014130Jimmie WardSSSFONorthern Illinois31.55226.87
2013240Cornellius CarradineDESFOFlorida St.27.69226.87
2014377Chris BorlandILBSFOWisconsin17.61226.87
2013388Corey LemonierDESFOAuburn15.68226.87
20144129Dontae JohnsonCBSFONorth Carolina St.11.46226.87
20145150Aaron LynchDESFOSouth Florida10.10226.87
20135157Quinton DialDESFOAlabama9.73226.87
20125165Darius FlemingLBSFONotre Dame9.38226.87
20145170Keith ReaserCBSFOFlorida Atlantic9.18226.87
20146180Kenneth AckerCBSFOSMU8.77226.87
20136180Nick MoodyLBSFOFlorida St.8.77226.87
20126180Trent RobinsonFSSFOMichigan St.8.77226.87
20127237Cam JohnsonDESFOVirginia7.21226.87
20147243Kaleb RamseyDESFOBoston Col.7.12226.87
20137252Marcus CooperDBSFORutgers7.02226.87
201315Ezekiel AnsahDEDETBYU43.36215.08
2013236Darius SlayDBDETMississippi St.29.17215.08
2014240Kyle Van NoyOLBDETBYU27.69215.08
2012385Bill BentleyDBDET16.17215.08
20124125Ronnell LewisLBDETOklahoma11.76215.08
20134132Devin TaylorDEDETSouth Carolina11.25215.08
20144133Nevin LawsonCBDETUtah St.11.18215.08
20144136Larry WebsterDEDETBloomsburg10.99215.08
20125138Tahir WhiteheadLBDETTemple10.86215.08
20125148Chris GreenwoodDBDETAlbion10.21215.08
20145158Caraun ReidDTDETPrinceton9.69215.08
20126196Jonte GreenDBDETNew Mexico St.8.18215.08
20127223Travis LewisLBDETOklahoma7.47215.08
20137245Brandon HepburnLBDETFlorida A&M7.10215.08
2012115Bruce IrvinDESEAWest Virginia38.27212.38
2012247Bobby WagnerLBSEAUtah St.25.26212.38
2013387Jordan HillDTSEAPenn St.15.84212.38
20144108Cassius MarshDESEAUCLA13.39212.38
20124114Jaye HowardDTSEAFlorida12.78212.38
20144132Kevin Pierre-LouisOLBSEABoston Col.11.25212.38
20135137Jesse WilliamsDTSEAAlabama10.92212.38
20135138Tharold SimonDBSEALSU10.86212.38
20125154Korey ToomerLBSEAIdaho9.88212.38
20145172Jimmy StatenDTSEAMiddle Tenn. St.9.10212.38
20126172Jeremy LaneDBSEANW State (LA)9.10212.38
20126181Winston GuyDBSEAKentucky8.73212.38
20146208Eric PinkinsFSSEASan Diego St.7.83212.38
20127225J.R. SweezyDESEANorth Carolina St.7.42212.38
20137231Ty PowellDESEAHarding7.31212.38
20127232Greg ScruggsDESEALouisville7.29212.38
20137241Jared SmithDTSEANew Hampshire7.15212.38
2012117Dre KirkpatrickDBCINAlabama37.31211.31
2014124Darqueze DennardCBCINMichigan St.34.10211.31
2013253Margus HuntDECINSMU23.35211.31
2012253Devon StillDTCINPenn St.23.35211.31
2013384Shawn WilliamsSSCINGeorgia16.35211.31
2014388Will ClarkeDECINWest Virginia15.68211.31
2012393Brandon ThompsonDTCINClemson14.98211.31
20134118Sean PorterLBCINTexas A&M12.37211.31
20125156Shaun PraterDBCINIowa9.78211.31
20125167George IlokaFSCINBoise St.9.30211.31
20146212Marquis FlowersOLBCINArizona7.72211.31
20147252Lavelle WestbrooksCBCINGeorgia Southern7.02211.31
2013122Desmond TrufantDBATLWashington34.99209.42
2014237Ra'Shede HagemanDTATLMinnesota28.79209.42
2013260Robert AlfordDBATLSE Louisiana21.32209.42
2014368Dezmen SouthwardFSATLWisconsin19.41209.42
20134127Malliciah GoodmanDEATLClemson11.61209.42
20144139Prince ShemboOLBATLNotre Dame10.79209.42
20145147Ricardo AllenCBATLPurdue10.28209.42
20135153Stansly MapongaDEATLTCU9.93209.42
20125164Jonathan MassaquoiDEATLTroy9.42209.42
20145168Marquis SpruillILBATLSyracuse9.26209.42
20126192Charles MitchellSSATLMississippi St.8.31209.42
20137243Kemal IshmaelDBATLCentral Florida7.12209.42
20137244Zeke MottaSSATLNotre Dame7.11209.42
20127249Travian RobertsonDTATLSouth Carolina7.05209.42
20147253Yawin SmallwoodOLBATLConnecticut7.02209.42
20147255Tyler StarrOLBATLSouth Dakota7.00209.42
201216Morris ClaiborneDBDALLSU42.83207.36
2014234Demarcus LawrenceDEDALBoise St.29.94207.36
2013380J.J. WilcoxFSDALGeorgia Southern17.06207.36
2012381Tyrone CrawfordDEDALBoise St.16.88207.36
20124113Kyle WilberLBDALWake Forest12.88207.36
20134114B.W. WebbDBDALWilliam & Mary12.78207.36
20144119Anthony HitchensOLBDALIowa12.27207.36
20124135Matt JohnsonSSDALEast. Washington11.05207.36
20136185DeVonte HollomanLBDALSouth Carolina8.57207.36
20127222Caleb McSurdyLBDALMontana7.49207.36
20147231Ben GardnerDEDALStanford7.31207.36
20147238Will SmithOLBDALTexas Tech7.19207.36
20147248Ahmad DixonSSDALBaylor7.06207.36
20147251Ken BishopDTDALNorthern Illinois7.03207.36
20147254Terrance MitchellCBDALOregon7.01207.36
2014114Kyle FullerCBCHIVirginia Tech38.76205.70
2012119Shea McClellinDECHIBoise St.36.37205.70
2013250Jonathan BosticLBCHIFlorida24.28205.70
2014251Ego FergusonDTCHILSU23.97205.70
2012379Brandon HardinFSCHIOregon St.17.24205.70
2014382Will SuttonDTCHIArizona St.16.70205.70
20134117Khaseem GreeneLBCHIRutgers12.47205.70
20144131Brock VereenFSCHIMinnesota11.32205.70
20126184Isaiah FreyDBCHINevada-Reno8.61205.70
20136188Cornelius WashingtonLBCHIGeorgia8.45205.70
20127220Greg McCoyDBCHITCU7.53205.70
201415Khalil MackOLBOAKBuffalo43.36202.96
2013112D.J. HaydenDBOAKHouston39.75202.96
2013366Sio MooreLBOAKConnecticut19.85202.96
20144107Justin EllisDTOAKLouisiana Tech13.49202.96
20144116Keith McGillCBOAKUtah12.57202.96
20124129Miles BurrisLBOAKSan Diego St.11.46202.96
20125158Jack CrawfordDEOAKPenn St.9.69202.96
20126189Christo BilukidiDEOAK8.42202.96
20136205Stacy McGeeDTOAKOklahoma7.91202.96
20147219Travis CarrieCBOAKOhio7.55202.96
20127230Nathan StuparLBOAKPenn St.7.33202.96
20137233David BassDEOAKMissouri Western St.7.27202.96
20147235Shelby HarrisDEOAKIllinois St.7.24202.96
20147247Jonathan DowlingSSOAKWest. Kentucky7.07202.96
201316Barkevious MingoDECLELSU42.83201.95
201418Justin GilbertCBCLEOklahoma St.41.79201.95
2013368Leon McFaddenDBCLESan Diego St.19.41201.95
2014371Christian KirkseyOLBCLEIowa18.77201.95
2012387John HughesDTCLECincinnati15.84201.95
20124120James-Michael JohnsonLBCLENevada-Reno12.18201.95
20144127Pierre DesirCBCLELindenwood11.61201.95
20136175Jamoris SlaughterSSCLENotre Dame8.98201.95
20126204Emmanuel AchoLBCLETexas7.94201.95
20126205Billy WinnDTCLEBoise St.7.91201.95
20137217Armonty BryantDECLEEast Central (OK)7.60201.95
20127245Trevin WadeDBCLEArizona7.10201.95
2014115Ryan ShazierOLBPITOhio St.38.27201.79
2013117Jarvis JonesLBPITGeorgia37.31201.79
2014246Stephon TuittDEPITNotre Dame25.59201.79
2012386Sean SpenceLBPITMiami (FL)16.00201.79
20124109Alameda Ta'amuDTPITWashington13.29201.79
20134111Shamarko ThomasSSPITSyracuse13.09201.79
20135150Terry HawthorneDBPITIllinois10.10201.79
20145157Shaquille RichardsonCBPITArizona9.73201.79
20146192Jordan ZumwaltILBPITUCLA8.31201.79
20136206Vince WilliamsLBPITFlorida St.7.88201.79
20146215Daniel McCullersDTPITTennessee7.65201.79
20137223Nick WilliamsDTPITSamford7.47201.79
20127246Terrence FrederickDBPITTexas A&M7.09201.79
2012118Melvin IngramDESDGSouth Carolina36.84194.78
2014125Jason VerrettCBSDGTCU33.66194.78
2013238Manti Te'oLBSDGNotre Dame28.42194.78
2012249Kendall ReyesDTSDGConnecticut24.61194.78
2014250Jeremiah AttaochuOLBSDGGeorgia Tech24.28194.78
2012373Brandon TaylorSSSDGLSU18.37194.78
20135145Steve WilliamsDBSDGCalifornia10.40194.78
20145165Ryan CarrethersNTSDGArkansas St.9.38194.78
20136179Tourek WilliamsDESDGFlorida International8.81194.78
201219Luke KuechlyLBCARBoston Col.41.27191.63
2013114Star LotuleleiDTCARUtah38.76191.63
2013244Kawann ShortDTCARPurdue26.27191.63
2014260Kony EalyDECARMissouri21.32191.63
20124103Frank AlexanderDECAROklahoma13.88191.63
20144128Tre BostonSSCARNorth Carolina11.53191.63
20125143Josh NormanDBCARCoastal Carolina10.54191.63
20145148Bene BenwikereCBCARSan Jose St.10.21191.63
20135148A.J. KleinLBCARIowa St.10.21191.63
20127216D.J. CampbellFSCARCalifornia7.63191.63
201411Jadeveon ClowneyDEHOUSouth Carolina45.52187.31
2012126Whitney MercilusDEHOUIllinois33.23187.31
2013257D.J. SwearingerSSHOUSouth Carolina22.15187.31
2014383Louis NixNTHOUNotre Dame16.53187.31
2013395Sam MontgomeryDEHOULSU14.73187.31
20134124Trevardo WilliamsDEHOUConnecticut11.84187.31
20124126Jared CrickDTHOUNebraska11.68187.31
20146177Jeoffrey PaganDEHOUAlabama8.90187.31
20136198Chris JonesDTHOUBowling Green8.12187.31
20147216Andre HalCBHOUVanderbilt7.63187.31
20147256Lonnie BallentineFSHOUMemphis6.99187.31
2013128Sylvester WilliamsDTDENNorth Carolina32.38168.78
2014131Bradley RobyCBDENOhio St.31.14168.78
2012236Derek WolfeDTDENCincinnati29.17168.78
2013390Kayvon WebsterDBDENSouth Florida15.38168.78
20124101Omar BoldenDBDENArizona St.14.08168.78
20125137Malik JacksonDTDENTennessee10.92168.78
20135146Quanterus SmithDEDENWest. Kentucky10.34168.78
20145156Lamin BarrowOLBDENLSU9.78168.78
20126188Danny TrevathanLBDENKentucky8.45168.78
20147242Corey NelsonOLBDENOklahoma7.14168.78
201313Dion JordanDEMIAOregon44.43167.48
2013254Jamar TaylorDBMIABoise St.23.04167.48
2012372Olivier VernonDEMIAMiami (FL)18.57167.48
2013393Will DavisDBMIAUtah St.14.98167.48
20134104Jelani JenkinsLBMIAFlorida13.78167.48
20144125Walt AikensCBMIALiberty11.76167.48
20125155Josh KadduLBMIAOregon9.83167.48
20145171Jordan TrippOLBMIAMontana9.14167.48
20127215Kheeston RandallDTMIATexas7.65167.48
20147234Terrence FedeDEMIA7.26167.48
20137250Don JonesSSMIAArkansas St.7.04167.48
2012110Stephon GilmoreDBBUFSouth Carolina40.76165.55
2013246Kiko AlonsoLBBUFOregon25.59165.55
2014373Preston BrownILBBUFLouisville18.37165.55
20134105Duke WilliamsFSBUFNevada-Reno13.68165.55
20124105Nigel BradhamLBBUFFlorida St.13.68165.55
20144109Ross CockrellCBBUFDuke13.29165.55
20124124Ron BrooksDBBUFLSU11.84165.55
20135143Jonathan MeeksDBBUFClemson10.54165.55
20125147Tank CarderLBBUFTCU10.28165.55
20147221Randell JohnsonOLBBUFFlorida Atlantic7.51165.55
2013233Jonathan CyprienFSJAXFlorida International30.34163.69
2012238Andre BranchDEJAXClemson28.42163.69
2013364Dwayne GratzDBJAXConnecticut20.32163.69
20144114Aaron ColvinCBJAXOklahoma12.78163.69
20125142Brandon MarshallLBJAXNevada-Reno10.60163.69
20145144Telvin SmithILBJAXFlorida St.10.47163.69
20145159Chris SmithDEJAXArkansas9.64163.69
20136169Josh EvansFSJAXFlorida9.22163.69
20126176Mike HarrisDBJAXFlorida St.8.94163.69
20137208Jeremy HarrisDBJAXNew Mexico St.7.83163.69
20137210Demetrius McCrayDBJAXAppalachian St.7.78163.69
20127228Jeris PendletonDTJAXAshland7.36163.69
2012252Zach BrownLBTENNorth Carolina23.65163.34
2013370Blidi Wreh-WilsonDBTENConnecticut18.98163.34
2012382Mike MartinDTTENMichigan16.70163.34
2013397Zaviar GoodenLBTENMissouri14.50163.34
20144112DaQuan JonesDTTENPenn St.12.99163.34
20124115Coty SensabaughDBTENClemson12.67163.34
20144122Marqueston HuffFSTENWyoming12.01163.34
20135142Lavar EdwardsDETENLSU10.60163.34
20145151Avery WilliamsonILBTENKentucky10.04163.34
20126190Markelle MartinFSTENOklahoma St.8.38163.34
20136202Khalid WootenDBTENNevada-Reno8.00163.34
20127211Scott SolomonDETENRice7.75163.34
20137248Daimion StaffordSSTENNebraska7.06163.34
201217Mark BarronSSTAMAlabama42.31146.68
2013243Johnthan BanksDBTAMMississippi St.26.62146.68
2012258Lavonte DavidLBTAMNebraska21.87146.68
20134100Akeem SpenceDTTAMIllinois14.18146.68
20134126William GholstonDETAMMichigan St.11.68146.68
20125140Najee GoodeLBTAMWest Virginia10.73146.68
20135147Steven MeansDETAMBuffalo10.28146.68
20126174Keith TandyDBTAMWest Virginia9.02146.68
2014127Deone BucannonSSARIWashington St.32.80143.70
2013245Kevin MinterLBARILSU25.93143.70
2013369Tyrann MathieuDBARILSU19.19143.70
2012380Jamell FlemingDBARIOklahoma17.06143.70
2014384Kareem MartinDEARINorth Carolina16.35143.70
20134103Alex OkaforDEARITexas13.88143.70
20145160Ed StinsonDEARIAlabama9.60143.70
20126177Justin BethelDBARIPresbyterian8.90143.70
2012111Dontari PoeDTKANMemphis40.25141.81
2014123Dee FordDEKANAuburn34.54141.81
2014387Phillip GainesCBKANRice15.84141.81
2013499Nico JohnsonLBKANAlabama14.29141.81
20135134Sanders CommingsDBKANGeorgia11.12141.81
20125146DeQuan MenzieDBKANAlabama10.34141.81
20137207Mike CatapanoDEKANPrinceton7.86141.81
20127218Jerome LongDTKANSan Diego St.7.58141.81
2013115Kenny VaccaroSSNORTexas38.27140.73
2014258Stanley Jean-BaptisteCBNORNebraska21.87140.73
2013382John JenkinsDTNORGeorgia16.70140.73
2012389Akiem HicksDENOR15.53140.73
20144126Khairi ForttILBNORCalifornia11.68140.73
20125162Corey WhiteSSNORSamford9.51140.73
20145167Vinnie SunseriSSNORAlabama9.30140.73
20145169Ronald PowellOLBNORFlorida9.22140.73
20136183Rufus JohnsonDENORTarleton St.8.65140.73
2014247Trent MurphyOLBWASStanford25.26120.91
2013251David AmersonDBWASNorth Carolina St.23.97120.91
20144102Bashaud BreelandCBWASClemson13.98120.91
20134119Phillip ThomasSSWASFresno St.12.27120.91
20124119Keenan RobinsonLBWASTexas12.27120.91
20135162Brandon JenkinsDEWASFlorida St.9.51120.91
20136191Bacarri RamboSSWASGeorgia8.35120.91
20127213Richard CrawfordDBWASSMU7.70120.91
20127217Jordan BernstineDBWASIowa7.60120.91
2013249Johnathan HankinsDTNYGOhio St.24.61119.18
2014374Jay BromleyDTNYGSyracuse18.18119.18
2013381Damontre MooreDENYGTexas A&M16.88119.18
2012394Jayron HosleyDBNYGVirginia Tech14.85119.18
20145152Nat BerheSSNYGSan Diego St.9.99119.18
20135152Cooper TaylorDBNYGRichmond9.99119.18
20145174Devon KennardOLBNYGUSC9.02119.18
20146187Bennett JacksonCBNYGNotre Dame8.49119.18
20127239Markus KuhnDTNYGNorth Carolina St.7.18119.18
2013124Bjoern WernerDEINDFlorida St.34.1089.17
20125136Josh ChapmanDTINDAlabama10.9989.17
20135139Montori HughesDTINDTenn-Martin10.7989.17
20145166Jonathan NewsomeDEINDBall St.9.3489.17
20136192John BoyettSSINDOregon8.3189.17
20146203Andrew JacksonILBINDWest. Kentucky7.9789.17
20127214Tim FuggerDEINDVanderbilt7.6789.17
  • You can see that Mike Zimmer is going to take over a MIN defense that struggled last year (3rd worst in the league in Points/Drive), but has four first round picks in the last three drafts allocated to defense. The Vikings lead in the draft capital number that I’m looking at.
  • STL comes in 2nd in this number and while they were middle of the pack in 2013 in PPD, I think lots of people are expecting them to take a step forward in 2014.
  • Two teams known mostly for offense, GB and NE, come in 3rd and 4th respectively. It’s also interesting that both added some free agents to the mix during the offseason.
  • I’m actually probably more interested in the bottom of the list because that’s where I think scoring opportunities will come from. IND has chosen just one defensive player earlier than the 5th round going back to the 2012 draft. They were already 21st in PPD in 2013, and I think it’s fair to say that they haven’t been diligent about reloading the chamber. Andrew Luck is going to have to score a lot this year.
  • Another familiar defensively challenged team is WAS. They were 25th in PPD last year and two 2nd round picks spent on defense in the last three years headlines their draft allocation to that side of the ball. They did sign Jason Hatcher in the offseason although he’s now scheduled for knee surgery.
  • The Giants were actually sneaky good on defense last year, finishing 7th in PPD, even though their draft spending on the position has been low. They did sign Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie in the offseason to add to their good defense from 2013. However, they’ve used no first round picks on defense in the last three years and only one second round pick. They also lost Linval Joseph and Justin Tuck in free agency. It’s definitely possible to foresee a situation where the Giants join Dallas and the Redskins as the teams that have defense in name only.

I’ll be looking at the issue of defense increasingly as the summer progresses. There are just too many ways that it impacts fantasy football to ignore it and pretend it doesn’t exist.

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6 comments
Aregand
Aregand

A special teams summary article- team and individual -would be useful.

Justin Winn
Justin Winn

I think people also neglect the importance of special teams. I've been picking up lots of shares of Minnesota, not just because of their draft picks, but because they also have Patterson who will surely get a few TDs through the year.

arayante
arayante

What about incorporating the career numbers/arc of non-recent draft picks on defense? A player like JJ Watt, from the 2011 draft, has a big impact on his team defense even though he wouldn't be counted by this analysis. It seems like a combination of adding up draft capital and existing, known talent should give a pretty close approximation to a team defense's overall fantasy value, so why is it just a given in fantasy circles than "you can't predict defensive scoring"?


You mentioned you owned KC in many of your leagues. Why was that? Did you snap them up after the first good week or did you have an idea that they'd be good last year? Being able to identify this year's KC would be a huge advantage and it seems like all the information is out there to find them.

rotoviz
rotoviz moderator

@arayante I think the way to do this is to incorporate defensive quality from last year. that should capture the Watt factor that you mention.


For KC, the thinking basically came down to their schedule and then the fact that I knew they had a number of good defensive players up front and had also recently drafted Dontari Poe. That was about it. I'll try to do a little better this year although I should say that I'll also be focused on trying to find the very cheapest viable defense that also looks like it could be good.

arayante
arayante

rotoviz Defensive quality from the prior year would just be part of the story in the case of players coming/going from teams. It would be great to be able to analyze a team by "added players A, B, & C, cut players D & E, and drafted players X, Y, & Z, so the expected defensive score is N." 

rotoviz
rotoviz moderator

@arayante i agree that quality from prior year won't capture all of it. i'm also looking at FA moves, although I do expect to incorporate FA as a less important variable because I think the assumption that most teams will keep their real differences makers is mostly accurate.


but i've already started that part and will have something in the next couple of days.