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camnewton

via Panthers quarterback Cam Newton returns to practice for 1st time since March 19 ankle surgery | Fox News.

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton practiced for the first time since undergoing ankle surgery on March 19.

Newton worked in 7-on-7 drills during the team’s final day of minicamp practice Thursday.

Newton says he felt sluggish on his first day back, adding, “My mind was moving faster than my body, but that all comes with time.”

One of the places where fantasy owners often get tripped up is in making assumptions about recovery from injuries.

In 2011 Peyton Manning was drafted through the middle of August as if he would start week 1. Then when that looked in doubt, it wasn’t uncommon to hear people advocating taking Manning based on getting a partial season out of him. Except that the problem was that there was no evidence that could point to when he might actually return. He hadn’t practiced.

Also, when you’re dealing with a player that has some known amount of missed time, the formula for estimating their games played is not:

16 GAMES – KNOWN MISSED GAMES = GAMES PLAYED

It’s roughly:

(16 GAMES – KNOWN MISSED GAMES)*.85 = GAMES PLAYED

But the bigger point is that you need evidence of when the player is going to return so that you’re not just making assumptions.  The fact that Cam is back at practice in June is a great development for his value this year. I like him as a 9th round pick because even though he was inconsistent last year, I think people are overly discounting him for loss of weapons. My position is that Cam did a lot more for Steve Smith than Smith did for Cam.

See if you notice anything about this table from the AYA App.

Passer Receiver POS ATTS RECS YDS TDS INTS  AYA
Cam Newton Ted Ginn WR 68 36 556 5 2         8.32
Cam Newton Steve Smith WR 374 214 3279 15 13         8.01
Cam Newton Jeremy Shockey TE 62 37 455 4 1         7.90
Cam Newton Brandon LaFell WR 216 128 1898 12 10         7.81
Cam Newton Greg Olsen TE 304 187 2199 16 4         7.69
Cam Newton DeAngelo Williams RB 79 53 632 3 2         7.62
Cam Newton Legedu Naanee WR 76 44 467 1 4         4.04

Did you get it? Cam’s AYA for all of these receivers only varies by 7/10 of a yard. I mean, that is if we throw out the contributions of Legedu Naanee.

That’s pretty crazy. So if the AYA for a number of receivers is all in the same range and those receivers are likely of wildly varying quality1, doesn’t that say something about the guy getting them the ball?

Depending on the odds you would give me, I might actually take Cam to have a better passing year in 2014 compared to 2013. I wouldn’t do it for even money, but I wouldn’t need 4/1 to do it either. It’s easy to see why a few of the writers have argued for both a TE and a WR from this offense.

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  1. hell, there’s even an RB in there  (back)
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