Aaron Rodgers, Value-Based Drafting, and Why I’m High on the Top QBs…or Maybe Just High
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Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series and the founder of RotoAcademy. While the RotoViz staff is all pretty much in agreement that the best long-term approach to fantasy football is scientific in nature—flexible enough to change in the face of new evidence—we still have different specific ways that such a foundation manifests itself in the way we draft. One big difference that I’ve noticed among some of the writers is the willingness to embrace volatility, particularly early in the draft. Jon Moore falls in the same camp as me as someone who seeks safety early in the draft—the first couple rounds, at least—and then pure upside later. Others—and I think the Douche falls into this group—don’t necessarily specifically seek safety early on. When I was writing the content for my new fantasy football books this year, I really started moving away from thinking about a player’s value in terms of a comparison of his projected points to his draft slot. One reason for that is because player projections are inherently fragile—very susceptible to small alterations. If you need to project a running back within 10 yards of his actual output to have him accurately ranked, for example, you’re going to be in trouble. For the record, I’m not against creating projections because I think there are other uses, but I don’t think you should blindly use them to rank players.