Advice

The Teddy Bridgewater Comparables; Subtitle: On the Other Hand

Image via KYLures/Flickr

Image via KYLures/Flickr

I’m going to show you the Teddy Bridgewater comparables in two different orders. First, let’s look at this table of Bridgewater comps generated using the methodology previously described.

NAME MAXYR HT WT GMS ATT PCT YA TDRT INTRT RYDS carYDS
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER 2013 74.12 214.00 37.00 32.85 71% 9.30 0.07 0.01 78 9,803
NAME MAXYR HT WT GMS ATT PCT YA TDRT INTRT RYDS carYDS
BEN ROETHLISBERGER 2003 76.88 241.00 38.00 35.36 69% 9.06 0.07 0.02 111 10,829
PHILIP RIVERS 2003 77.00 229.00 49.00 37.15 72% 9.30 0.07 0.01 109 13,484
ANDREW LUCK 2011 76.00 234.00 38.00 31.08 71% 8.71 0.09 0.02 150 9,430
GENO SMITH 2012 74.38 218.00 41.00 44.08 70% 7.80 0.08 0.01 194 11,762
JOHN BECK 2006 74.12 215.00 37.00 34.75 69% 9.32 0.08 0.02 (8) 11,021
JIMMY CLAUSEN 2009 74.62 222.00 34.00 35.42 68% 8.76 0.07 0.01 (95) 8,148
KEVIN KOLB 2006 75.12 218.00 50.00 30.86 68% 8.82 0.07 0.01 154 12,964
MATT LEINART 2005 76.88 223.00 39.00 33.15 66% 8.85 0.06 0.02 36 10,693
GREG MCELROY 2010 73.88 220.00 27.00 24.08 71% 9.54 0.06 0.02 (12) 5,629
NATE DAVIS 2008 73.38 226.00 36.00 28.64 64% 8.96 0.06 0.02 312 9,233
Average 75.22 224.60 38.90 33.46 69% 8.91 0.07 0.02 95 10,319

The type of QB that appears in this table is a multi-year starter that produced about 10,000 career passing yards and then had a final season of really high efficiency. The QBs in this table averaged almost 9 yards per attempt in their final season, then had gaudy TD/INT numbers as well.

Bridgewater shares some college numbers with three multi-year franchise QBs, and then also shares some similarities with a few guys who were either highly drafted (Geno, Leinart) or were expected to be multi-year starters (Kolb).

That’s a pretty decent list of names and I think there’s an argument that if you looked at that list, Bridgewater would justify a first round pick based on the potential that you might have a roughly 30% chance of getting something like Rivers/Roethlisberger/Luck.

But now let’s look at the same table, except re-ordered by how similar the players are to Geno (the similarity function orders players by absolute distance on each measure – when you look at sim scores in any of the apps, they are ordered in terms of similarity closeness).

NAME MAXYR HT WT GMS ATT PCT YA TDRT INTRT RYDS carYDS
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER 2013 74.12 214.00 37.00 32.85 71% 9.30 0.07 0.01 78 9,803
NAME MAXYR HT WT GMS ATT PCT YA TDRT INTRT RYDS carYDS
JOHN BECK 2006 74.12 215.00 37.00 34.75 69% 9.32 0.08 0.02 (8) 11,021
JIMMY CLAUSEN 2009 74.62 222.00 34.00 35.42 68% 8.76 0.07 0.01 (95) 8,148
KEVIN KOLB 2006 75.12 218.00 50.00 30.86 68% 8.82 0.07 0.01 154 12,964
MATT LEINART 2005 76.88 223.00 39.00 33.15 66% 8.85 0.06 0.02 36 10,693
BEN ROETHLISBERGER 2003 76.88 241.00 38.00 35.36 69% 9.06 0.07 0.02 111 10,829
PHILIP RIVERS 2003 77.00 229.00 49.00 37.15 72% 9.30 0.07 0.01 109 13,484
GREG MCELROY 2010 73.88 220.00 27.00 24.08 71% 9.54 0.06 0.02 (12) 5,629
NATE DAVIS 2008 73.38 226.00 36.00 28.64 64% 8.96 0.06 0.02 312 9,233
ANDREW LUCK 2011 76.00 234.00 38.00 31.08 71% 8.71 0.09 0.02 150 9,430
GENO SMITH 2012 74.38 218.00 41.00 44.08 70% 7.80 0.08 0.01 194 11,762
Average 2007.3 75.22 224.60 38.90 33.46 69% 8.91 0.07 0.02 95 10,319

I think just changing the order has a pretty big impact on the mental effect of the comps. While it’s true that John Beck was significantly older than Bridgewater, it still sucks to see his name at the top of the list. It’s also worth noting that Geno and Beck are probably the closest physically to Bridgewater, while the best names on the table are all significantly bigger.

This comparable exercise probably yielded pretty close to the same result that a lot of the tape grinding on Bridgewater has yielded. I think everyone that thinks about Teddy can see the potential that is there, and they’re simultaneously scared shitless that he could end up like the disappointing names on this list. Note that the fear that he could end up like the disappointing names on the list is a lot more simple explanation for his draft stock falling than some of the other explanations I’ve heard.

I don’t know whether Teddy will be the answer for any real or fantasy teams that need QB. Based on his resume, we had him as our 1st QB in our staff composite rankings. But based on his falling draft stock it does seem less likely that he ends up with the better names on his comp list. The less a team spends on him, the less committed they’ll feel to him if/when they do give him a chance. And all of this stuff is really speculative. Last year there were a few scouts that had Ryan Nassib as the best QB in the class. The Giants have now seen Nassib for a year and appear ready to move on.

The Nassib example is probably an informative one. Any time that we, or any pundit, tells you that they know more than an NFL team, think about how that pundit would do if the stakes were real. The analysts that had Nassib first would be out of a job by now. The same is true of any analyst that had Blaine Gabbert first. Maybe that’s not ideal, given the small samples that the NFL deals in, but it’s true.

So in the case of Teddy, where the upside is pretty consistently described as being a cross between Alex Smith and Matt Ryan, and where the downside is probably apparent based on his comps, I don’t doubt teams for being skittish.

Subscribe for a constant stream of league-beating articles available only with a Premium Pass.

By RotoViz Staff | @rotoviz | Archive

No Comment

Leave a reply