Advice

The Blake Bortles Comparables – Subtitle: Andrew Luck or EJ Manuel?

blake_bortles

The kind of QB that emerges when I run comparables for Blake Bortles is an efficient player with sort of a medium amount of games started, and also some rushing yards to add to the passing totals. Based on box score scouting that could be Andrew Luck or EJ Manuel.

The game watchers have already clicked back, so for the rest of you I’ll say that I don’t think that’s as ridiculous as it sounds. It’s worth remembering that both players were picked first at their position in their respective drafts. Although it’s true that Luck was regarded as something of an all-time prospect.

Here’s the table of Blake Bortles comparables based on the methodology described in this post. Some thoughts after the table.

NAME MAXYR HT WT GMS ATT PCT YA TDRT INTRT RYDS carYDS
BLAKE BORTLES 2013 77 232 31 382 68% 9.37 7% 2% 272.00 7,598.00
NAME MAXYR HT WT GMS ATT PCT YA TDRT INTRT RYDS carYDS
EJ MANUEL 2012 237 35 425 68% 8.68 6% 2% 336.00 7,766.00
NATE DAVIS 2008 74 226 36 401 64% 8.96 6% 2% 312.00 9,233.00
MATTHEW STAFFORD 2008 74 225 37 383 61% 9.03 7% 3% 40.00 7,731.00
JASON CAMPBELL 2004 77 230 40 285 70% 9.92 7% 2% 12.00 7,283.00
KELLEN CLEMENS 2005 74 224 32 289 64% 8.33 7% 1% 228.00 7,601.00
DARYLL CLARK 2009 74 235 26 381 61% 7.88 6% 3% 211.00 5,692.00
RYAN COLBURN 2010 75 233 25 360 63% 7.83 6% 2% 75.00 5,276.00
ANDREW LUCK 2011 76 234 38 404 71% 8.71 9% 2% 150.00 9,430.00
JARED ZABRANSKY 2006 74 219 38 288 66% 8.98 8% 3% 197.00 8,156.00
TYLER PALKO 2006 74 215 35 322 68% 8.92 8% 3% 77.00 8,330.00
Average 75 228 34.2 354 66% 8.72 7% 2% 163.80 7,649.80
  • If you deleted the names that weren’t first round picks you would have Manuel, Luck, Stafford and Jason Campbell. Kellen Clemens was a 2nd round pick.
  • Out of the prospects in the table I would say that Luck actually looks the best thus far. He hasn’t been the overwhelming success that I think he’s made out to be, but it’s also worth noting that his receiver corps probably hasn’t been top half of the league either (the easiest way to think about this is to count teams that would swap their receivers for the Colts’ straight up). Stafford probably owes about $100MM to Megatron.
  • As Jon Moore points out in this article, Bortles does look like he could be a valuable fantasy QB.
  • Bortles came in at 3rd, and essentially in his own tier, in our staff composite rankings.
  • These exercises are as much for me to try to place the prospects mentally as anything. Or maybe another way to put it is that they’re an attempt at some kind of calibration. Numbers can lie, but they’re also pretty agnostic. When I made up the methodology of this exercise I didn’t really set out to figure a way to get Blake Bortles and Andrew Luck into the same post. It just happened. Whether it means anything, I don’t know.

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By RotoViz Staff | @rotoviz | Archive

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