The 2013 AYA Red Flag Receiving Team

pierregarcon Lately, I’ve been spending a lot of time playing around with the AYA App. AYA stands for adjusted yards per attempt, a variation of yards per attempt that factors in touchdowns and interceptions. The AYA App lets you see how efficient QBs were when throwing to various targets, and you can even adjust it to cover different seasons, or a span of multiple seasons. It’s very informative and I encourage you to spend some time with it. My main goal was to find the players with surprisingly high or low adjusted yard per target (AYPT) numbers, which is equivalent to the AYA their QB had when targeting them. Today, I’m going to share some of those players with you. We’ll continue on from the last article with the players who hindered their QBs and “provided” them with particularly low AYAs. For the sake of clarity, I’ve decided to only focus on players that are playing with the same starting QB in both 2013 and 2014. Some of these numbers are concerning because they suggest a player’s production was largely volume driven. Others are concerning because they suggest a player doesn’t have a very good connection with their QB. Some are alarming because they simply suggest a player may not be very good. I have tried to come up with a more optimistic interpretation whenever possible. I am not saying the AYA numbers alone make any of these guys undraftable, these numbers are just reason for concern, thus, red flags.

Pierre Garcon– 6.03 AYPT

This was on 138 targets, before Robert Griffin III was “shut down” for the rest of the season. Garcon’s success was based on volume, not efficiency. The optimistic way to look at it is that Garcon was far more efficient in 2012 (11.47 AYA) when Griffin was healthy… but so was everybody else.  Garcon has only scored 6 TDs on 191 targets from Griffin in Washington. The bad news is that DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts are now in town, and Kyle Shanahan, who has historically peppered his WR1 with targets, is not. The good news is that Jay Gruden, who gave A.J. Green 150 targets per year, is the head coach now. Oh, speaking of Mr. Green…

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By Justin Winn | @TheHumanHuman | Archive

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