Is T.J. Jones the Next Antonio Brown?
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Defense may have its occasional merits, but it was hard to watch the Lions trade up for Kyle Van Noy1 instead of selecting RotoViz Reach stars like Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, or Jordan Matthews. Hitting on any of the trio would have cemented Detroit as the NFL’s best offense for the next decade. Using a late round pick on T.J. Jones pales in comparison. On the surface, Jones appears to be just another in the indistinguishable legion of waste pick wide receivers selected after Round 3. Surprisingly, that may not be the case. Jones first caught my eye with his impressive finish in FD’s Games Dominated algorithm. I’ve given Detroit a hard time recently about their penchant for overdrafting mediocre talents, but it’s possible that by selecting Jones the Lions were valuing the input of former Broncos GM and supposed analytics guru Brian Xanders. It’s possible they’ve learned how to find their Ryan Broyles replacement at a fraction of the cost.
T.J. Jones – The Next Superstar Possession Receiver?Before the draft we talked ad nauseum about collegiate market share (Dominator Rating or DR) and the value of breakout age (BOA). The games dominated approach uses Final Season DR, Age, BOA, and Games Dominated to project receiver fantasy scoring at the next level (weight is displayed but wasn’t significant). Take a look at Jones compared to a few of the other high profile, similarly-sized rookie receivers (I’ve also included Mike Evans for entertainment purposes, and perhaps to demonstrate why I believe he sports a production red flag).
- Was it unlikely Van Noy would last to 45? Did they really have no other similarly rated players? (back)