Is Johnny Manziel One of the Best QB Prospects Ever?

image via wikimedia commons

image via wikimedia commons

Guildenstern: Syllogism the second: One, probability is a factor that operates within natural forces. Two, probability is not operating as a factor. Three, we are now within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces. Discuss. Not too heatedly. Rosencrantz: I’m sorry I—What’s the matter with you? Guildenstern: The scientific approach to the examination of phenomena is a defence against the pure emotion of fear. Now—counter to the previous syllogism: follow me carefully, it may prove a comfort. If we postulate, and we just have, that within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces, the probability is that the law of probability will not operate as factor, then we accept that the probability of the first part will not operate as a factor, in which case the law of probability will operate as a factor within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces. And since it obviously hasn’t been doing so, we can take it that we are not held within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces after all; in all probability that is. Which is a great relief to me personally.   – Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead, Tom Stoppard
While analysts don’t necessarily agree on the nuts and bolts of running back and wide receiver projection, they agree the positions are relatively predictable if you’re thinking in probabilistic terms. These positions can be projected with impressive accuracy by simply looking at athleticism and on-field production and then adjusting for age. To be sure, you need to know which athletic measures are most important, and you need to know how to adjust production for context. In the case of running backs, efficiency levels tend to be less important than touches, especially passing game touches. In the case of receivers, market share tends to be a blunt but ultimately successful tool for placing everybody on an even playing field. The same cannot be said for quarterbacks.

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By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive