Three and Out: Desean Jackson, Jamal Charles and Fantasy Football History

On the subject of Rudolph, I'd love to see some figures on his YAC stats.  I owned him in dynasty.  I dropped him like a bad habit last year because every time I saw him get the ball, he would take a hit and fall down.  Despite impressive physical stats including WAA, I didn't see it.  I didn't see a guy that could make open field cuts or had breakaway speed like Gronk/Graham.  I saw a guy that catches the ball, takes one hit and falls down.  His pro-bowl MVP was a joke, if you watch the plays he scored on, the defenders hardly tried to tackle him.

I want to believe in the Norv factor (thanks for all the fish Gordon/Cameron 2013), but I am highly skeptical of this one.

Regardless, I think Pierre Garcon is being substantially overvalued, even before DJax came to town. Last year was by all measures a career year for him. They're likely to run the ball more this year. Jordan Reed will likely see more playing time. Jackson is a factor. Andre Roberts has been added.

But most importantly, the OC is no longer Kyle Shanahan. Historically, he has the fed the ball to the WR1 (even more than Gruden did in Cincinnati with A.J. Green).

On DeSean Jackson, I think he'll go over those marks, but not by much which won't really change your point. I ended up with him in a trade and tried to flip him quickly only to find that there isn't as much hysteria about him as I'd hoped. Your underselling his career a bit though. He's played 6 seasons and missed some games (played 87 of 96 possible games). He's got 6,117 yards in his career. Your 957 number dismisses last season altogether. Even then, if you give him per game credit and extrapolate his numbers out to a full season then he was averaging 1078 yards per season to go with 5 TDs. That's basically what your over/under is set to and his career best for targets was the 126 he got this year (not 119, at least according to ESPN). 

He led the Eagles in yardage every season of his career except the season where he only played in 11 games. Maclin beat him out by 150 yards that season. 

Jay Gruden's career as a coordinator coincides with AJ Green's arrival in Cincy so I don't know that it's fair to assume that a WR1 heavy target distribution will be the norm. So, I think Jackson does get in the neighborhood of the same number of targets he saw this season and breaks the numbers you're listing here. His downside is that he gets injured and his upside is that he could be the WR1 (as he's been with the Eagles most years) and get a ton of targets. I wouldn't break the bank for him, but I like him a little better than Torrey Smith who only ever caught more than half his targets once.

My fantasy brain is so energized right now.

I think this Washington offense is going to be incredibly hard to project in general. That being said, I think there's a decent chance DJax is actually the WR1 from a production standpoint. 

Thanks for the comments...your points are well taken...first and foremost I think DJax is the premier deep threat in the NFL...as tough as it is to say I am a Skins fan so I know how dangerous he is...it will be hard to project who is going to be the #1 in this offense...I think its likely both Garcon and DJax regress a bit. Garcon due to less targets and DJax due to playing with a less talented passer and the better talent around him in the passing game. It will be interesting to see but I think 1000yds and 5tds is a pretty close projection give or take a td and 100 yds

@Intercept  I agree about projecting the offense in DC this year...I am more excited about the value of J.Reed this year than Garcon or DJax...I just think it will incredibly difficult for either player to match the career high outputs they both put up last year. I think it is likely that both regress but still put up respectable numbers...It will be important to monitor ADP leading up to draft time to understand their true value.

@ScottSmith610  Wait, you've got Foles as a more talented passer than RGIII and you're a skins fan? I thought Foles was undervalued... I haven't done this yet but what's the DJax projection when you use the app to pull out the Foles vs Vick games?

I like this series because I like to argue. You should throw an over/under out there every week.

I really like Foles as a dynasty QB, but part of what I like about him is that I assumed his value was a bit sneaky good. Maybe it's just like-minded company. 
He did just lose his most efficient WR: http://rotoviz.com/index.php/2013/12/relative-receiver-efficiency-in-2013/

For much of last year Foles was the most efficient qb in the nfl...his final qbr of 119 lead the nfl...maybe its the system but he lead a few of my teams to championships so mayne I have a bit of recency bias lol

I have a problem as a skins fan watching rg3 read the defense...holding out hope it was because the interior line was putrid last year and didnt give him much time although I haven't studied exact league pocket times to this point

@zjdlmt @ScottSmith610  I'm not sure how you can see that Foles is a better passer than RGIII when you look at their freshman tape. RGIII was insane his rookie year, and it wasn't a case of the numbers looking better than the play. Meanwhile, Foles benefitted highly from the system and got sacked on a lot of ridiculously drawn out plays, that a better passer or more mobile QB would have been able to do something about.