DynastyFootball

Second Year WR Projections: Round One

chris baldwin

chris baldwin

For this article, I want to lay down some groundwork for evaluating WR prospects based on their rookie year performance. I’ll walk you through the methodology here, and give some actionable examples for players drafted in the first round. Then I’ll refer back to this piece later, when I do more projections for those drafted in later rounds. The genesis for this idea came from last year, when I took this surly and dim view of A.J. Jenkins’ prospects. This time around I built a database of 330 WRs drafted between 2000 and 2013. Then I compared their rookie performance to their rest-of-career performance. There are definitely discernible trends that can shed light on how we should project 2013 (and eventually 2014) rookies. The opportunity here is that, entering a player’s second year, fantasy expectations are still largely framed by the player’s draft pedigree, and whether or not owners think the player lived up to that expectation in their rookie season. Identifying which second year players may be over or under valued allows you to exploit those expectations. Join me as we take a round-by-round look at WR performance and projection.

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By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive

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