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Image credit to NeonTommy/Flickr

Image credit to NeonTommy/Flickr

I’ll be more enthusiastic about encouraging thinking outside the box when there’s evidence of any thinking going on inside it. – Terry Pratchett

 

A year ago, Marqise Lee won the Biletnikoff Award as college football’s best receiver. Had he been draft eligible, he would have almost certainly been the first receiver off the board. Sammy Watkins probably would have been the third receiver selected, although he was coming off of a disappointing, injury-prone season that saw him play second fiddle to DeAndre Hopkins. (Jon Moore recently compared Watkins and Hopkins and found they were very similar.)

Fast forward a year and Watkins is gaining steam as a dark horse candidate to go No. 2 overall, while Lee – fresh off of a disappointing Combine 40 time – is widely anticipated to fall into the beginning of the second round. Many of my favorite NFL writers are listing Watkins among the best wide receiver prospects in recent memory and writing Lee off as a probable bust with a low ceiling even in the best case.

Watkins over Lee seems like a rare area where film watchers and metrics guys agree, but should any of us buy this rabid meme? Or are we all focusing on the wrong numbers/tapes?

Raw Career Numbers – Who Does the Box Score Like?

Plays Yds Avg TD
Sammy Watkins 292 3730 12.8 28
Marqise Lee 272 3801 14.0 29

 

Because Watkins was a superior threat in the running game, I’ve included all plays from scrimmage. You can see that the two receivers are very equal here. You could argue that Lee is slightly more explosive on a per play basis, but his edge on receptions only is 0.6 yards per catch. If there’s anything to break the tie, it would be the far more difficult schedule Lee faced. According to Sports Reference/CFB, USC’s schedules rated 6.22, 5.76, and 3.49, while Clemson’s rated 3.06, 1.14, and 1.18 (higher is better). These are large margins.

Advantage: Small edge to Lee

 

The Measurables – Who Better Fits the Holy Grail Components?

Height Weight Speed Age
Sammy Watkins 73 211 4.43 21.5
Marqise Lee 72 192 4.52 23.1

 

Both Watkins and Lee are slightly below the average height for “hits” but this is much more problematic for Lee who is 13 pounds lighter than the “misses.” Watkins is about at the weight of hits. Watkins is faster than the 1st round hits, but speed tends to be overvalued in the first round. (The misses were actually faster.) Finally, Watkins is a year younger than the hits, while Lee was slightly older than the misses. Moreover, Lee’s Combine 40 time was fairly disastrous. Before the event, I wrote that he needed to run in the 4.3s to confirm fantasy WR1 potential. He didn’t even get close.

The biggest argument for Watkins is not his size/speed profile, which is decidedly average. And it’s not his on-field production, which we’ll address in a second. It’s his age. Watkins will be very young when he enters the NFL, and he was very young when he authored his best college season as a true freshman. If you believe in Watkins’ talent – and most people do – his age should be considered rocket fuel for his upside projection.

Advantage: Huge edge Watkins

Explosion and Agility – Who Better Fits the Unified Theory of Athleticism?

It seems safe to assume that Watkins is a better athlete when looking at 40 time, but this may actually not be the case. RotoViz has previously demonstrated that the leaping drills tend to help demonstrate explosiveness and are a good secondary metric in judging receiver athleticism. Moreover, neither Watkins nor Lee owns the sort of size/speed profile that renders irrelevant poor lateral explosiveness. Here are their results in those categories.

Vert Broad Short Shuttle
Marqise Lee 38 127 4.01
Sammy Watkins 34 126 4.34

 

If experts were a little disappointed in Watkins’ 4.43 forty, they had to be extremely disappointed in his performance in the peripheral drills. A 34-inch vertical is not what you’re hoping to see from an elite athletic specimen. Lee performed much better with a combined Explosiveness Score just below only Donte Moncrief, Tevin Reese, and Allen Robinson.

The difference was even more striking in the agility drills. In a somewhat counterintuitive result, less agile wide receivers score more fantasy points, but that doesn’t mean you actually want your receiver to lack quickness. It simply means that weight is much more important – you’d prefer Demaryius Thomas over Tavon Austin, for example – and bigger prospects aren’t as quick. Watkins is obviously heavier than Lee, but he doesn’t fit the profile of a receiver who will succeed due to height and weight. Speed receivers need quickness, and Watkins didn’t bring that to the table at the Combine. He was far slower than Lee in the short shuttle and finished 19th at the position in the 3-cone.

Recently, Scott Smith developed a metric called the Catch Radius Score which includes height, arm length, vertical, speed, and agility. Average is 200. Lee finished with a 201.3, while Watkins trailed at 193.6. If you’re part of the small minority that believes Lee is the superior athlete, it’s quite possible you’re right. Even with his deficiencies in weight and speed, Lee provides more reason for optimism than Watkins.

Advantage: Solid edge Lee

 

 

Career Heat Map – Who Does the RotoViz College WR App like?

Watkins v Lee

This is an area where it gets pretty ugly for Watkins. As you know from the WR Holy Grail article, receivers who are drafted in the first round and go on to meet expectations average a 43.9 Dominator Rating, or average of market share touchdowns and market share yards. Those who miss average 34.6. Watkins final year numbers are below the average for misses. Lee’s final year numbers are also below the average for misses, but when you look only at market share, a strange thing happens. His “disaster” season came in at .29. That’s a virtually identical result to the man who just won the RotoViz WR bracket.

Let’s look at these numbers a variety of different ways.

Final season: Watkins .33 over Lee .29

Best season: Lee .42 over Watkins .35

Worst season: Lee .29 over Watkins .18

Initial season: Watkins .35 over Lee .30

20-year-old season: Watkins .33 over Lee .30

Depending on your model, you could go either way with this information. Age is a very important component of receiver evaluation, so you’d be very justified in prioritizing the three areas where Watkins wins. But that tends to ignore just how much more dominant Lee was on a per game basis. The Fantasy Douche recently did a study focusing on Games Dominated.  Here are the numbers for our two players.

Games Played Games Dominated GD %
Marqise Lee 36 18 50
Sammy Watkins 35 10 29

 

This is a truly gigantic gap. In FD’s model that left the two players with similar projections, even though the other variables – final season DR, breakout age, and final season age – all swing decidedly in Watkins’ favor. (RotoViz Staff provided a convincing explanation for Watkins’ sagging DR in his Prospect Report Card.)

Advantage: Large edge Lee.

 

Watching the Film

One of the many reasons I think watching film can cause more problems than it solves is the effect of priming. The order you watch game tapes on a prospect can make a big difference in how you see that player. The brain quickly forms impressions about what it sees and then it becomes increasingly difficult to avoid fitting subsequent observations into that initial framework. (To be sure, this can also be an issue with statistical analysis.)

Just for fun, I’ve included Marqise Lee’s record-breaking, 345-yard display against Arizona and Sammy Watkins’ epic, screen pass-fueled 227-yard outing against Ohio State. Feel free to check out the two players at their best and decide who you think has the higher ceiling.

Watkins versus Ohio State

Lee versus Arizona


The Final Verdict

The most important components in our models are age, weight, final season DR, and age-adjusted games dominated. These metrics tend to slide firmly in favor of Watkins. Even with his healthy edge in dominating games, Lee still falls short of Watkins in the projections made in that system. Moreover, many will consider draft slot the final big piece of the puzzle, and Watkins should hold a huge edge in that category. The Clemson star should clearly be selected ahead of Marqise Lee in your rookie draft, and he probably has a better NFL future. That said, I believe there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that Lee is actually the superior player. So many teams are desperate for a solid No. 2 receiver that if Lee falls into a good situation on draft day, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up delivering more fantasy value in both the short and long term.

It may seem like a cop out to rate the two prospects as basically even, but such a conclusion has huge ramifications for a team like Detroit which appears to be considering mortgaging the farm to move up for Watkins when Lee would be available in a trade down.

Of course, even better prospects than either Watkins or Lee will probably be available when Detroit drafts at 42.

 

If you liked this article, you’ll love the preseason and in-season content as well as the suite of league-destroying appsSubscribe to RotoViz.

Shawn Siegele is the creator of the contrarian sports website Money in the Banana Stand and Lead Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

 

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3 comments
Justin Winn
Justin Winn

Another factor worth considering: Sammy Watkins played with the likes of DeAndre Hopkins (a 1st round pick), and Martavis Bryant, another prospect that is garnering some respect. Marqise Lee played with Robert Woods (a 2nd round pick that many thought was a reach) and who else? I actually don't know for the record. My point is, it's likely Sammy was having to do a lot more to earn his targets.


Furthermore, those screen passes *can* deflate a player's DR if they are not the norm for the entire passing offense. They certainly can have a big effect on MSTDs. And as Rotoviz Staff pointed out, he has the reverse ODB (YCB) effect going on. I think Watkins is a case where the context tells us the numbers are actually better than they look, the scouting community echoes that sentiment.

Shawn Siegele
Shawn Siegele

@Intercept  

It's interesting you mention Hopkins vs. Woods, as I considered that for the article but left it out for length. Except I think it works the other way. Woods posted a .42 DR in 2012 while competing with a guy (Woods) who was coming off of a tremendous age-adjusted DR season of his own in 2011. Meanwhile, Watkins managed a .33 in 2013 while competing with basically no one (Bryant's a late round prospect).

The screen pass issue is interesting as Jordan Matthews is also criticized for seeing a lot of his targets in a similar fashion, but he parlayed them into a much higher DR. The strongest argument for Watkins is definitely that he did well in some of the more important games. 

Justin Winn
Justin Winn

@Shawn Siegele True, but you also have to consider that both Woods and Barkley were critical of how devoted the playbook was to Lee in 2012. Despite Woods' past success, Lee was considered the WR1, and that's an important factor. Woods' DR may have been higher than Hopkins, but Hopkins was clearly a superior prospect in spite of that. Woods didn't have a Lee type player to compete with in 2011, and even though Woods is skilled, he isn't gifted. It's telling that his production declined so sharply the first time he had competition from a real prospect.