DynastyFootball

Devonta Freeman, Ka’Deem Carey, and the High Profile Red Flags

www.buildingthedam.com

www.buildingthedam.com

So far this offseason I’ve focused on finding underappreciated stars. I’ve explained why I believe running backs shouldn’t all be judged by the same criteria and explained what I consider to be the three draftable profiles. I’ve suggested Andre Williams is a star of Profile 1: The Workhorse Back and why Bishop Sankey fits in Profile 2: The PPR Maven and could be the next LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. Or you could target the draft’s best athlete and a hybrid Profile 1/Profile 2 breakout candidate. There aren’t any great Profile 3 candidates this season, but we looked at why Henry Josey might be the most electric back in the class and how James White is an undervalued member of the Giovani Bernard All-Stars. We explored the comps for Charles Sims and discovered a poor man’s DeMarco Murray hidden among the detritus and demonstrated why Jeremy Hill is a better bet than Carlos Hyde.

That’s the good news. Unfortunately, there is at least a little bit of bad news. It’s not as fun to talk about who we should avoid, but it’s just as important strategically. Please keep in mind that I’m not rooting against these players. These are real people with real careers ahead of them, and if they take the Arian Foster or Priest Holmes route, I’ll be just as excited for them as for the guys I promoted above. After all, there’s a surprising value in occasionally being wrong.

Ka’Deem Carey – Stepfan Taylor 2.0

Name Weight 40 Speed Agility Vert RuAtt RuYds RuTDs YPC Rec RecYds
Ka’Deem Carey 207 4.7 84.8 11.46 32.5 349 1885 19 5.4 26 173
Average 209 4.6 94.5 11.39 32.8 300 1630 17 6 35 326
Name Weight 40 Speed Agility Vert RuAtt RuYds RuTDs YPC Rec RecYds
Stepfan Taylor 214 4.76 83.4 11.63 30 322 1530 13 4.8 41 287
Jason Wright 210 4.68 87.6 11.49 30 267 1388 20 5.2 18 251
Brian Calhoun 201 4.57 92.2 11.29 31.5 348 1636 22 4.7 53 571
Leonard Henry 206 4.57 94.5 11.4 35 184 1432 16 7.8 26 210
Darius Walker 206 4.55 96.1 11.57 40.5 255 1267 7 5 56 391
Chris Polk 215 4.57 98.6 11.34 31.5 293 1488 12 5.1 31 332
Johnathan Franklin 205 4.49 100.9 11.2 31.5 282 1734 13 6.1 33 323
Kevin Smith 217 4.53 103.1 11.23 32 450 2567 29 5.7 24 242

As someone who spends quite a bit of time in Tucson, it hurts me to say it, but Carey just doesn’t have NFL athleticism. We often hear that measurables are overrated, but, if that’s the case, where do I even find cherry-pickable outliers to use on Carey’s behalf? The sad truth for Carey is that the comps I’ve uncovered are more athletic than he is. This doesn’t mean Carey can’t be a good player. He received a 59 in the final RotoViz RB Algorithm, which is ahead of a lot of the backs with better comps. His age, weight, touches, and receptions all weigh heavily in his favor. If he falls further than most expect in the reality draft and then that precipitates a fall in your rookie draft, there are certainly worse picks. But I’d probably be more skeptical of Carey than other similarly projected backs.

Devonta Freeman – Alvin Pearman 2.0

Name Weight 40 Speed Agility Vert RuAtt RuYds RuTDs YPC Rec RecYds
Devonta Freeman 206 4.58 93.6 11.37 31.5 173 1016 14 5.9 22 278
Average 207 4.56 96.1 11.31 33 223 1236 12.3 5.6 29 336
Name Weight 40 Speed Agility Vert RuAtt RuYds RuTDs YPC Rec RecYds
Leonard Henry 206 4.57 94.5 11.4 35 184 1432 16 7.8 26 210
Kerwynn Williams 195 4.48 96.8 11.3 35 218 1512 15 6.9 45 697
Shane Vereen 210 4.49 103.3 11.23 34 231 1167 13 5.1 22 209
Alvin Pearman 208 4.63 90.5 11.17 34 195 1037 10 5.3 29 402
Isaiah Pead 197 4.47 98.7 11.27 33 237 1259 12 5.3 39 319
Johnny White 209 4.5 101.9 11.38 32.5 130 720 7 5.5 24 288
Tellis Redmon 210 4.61 93 11.22 32 251 1122 6 4.5 29 318
Chris Polk 215 4.57 98.6 11.34 31.5 293 1488 12 5.1 31 332
Jason Wright 210 4.68 87.6 11.49 30 267 1388 20 5.2 18 251

A surprising number of high profile writers rank Freeman as the No. 1 back on their boards. That hasn’t really moved the needle as much as you might guess in rookie mocks, but he could skyrocket if an NFL team agrees and selects him in the second round. As was the case with Carey, Devonta Freeman’s comps are fairly pedestrian and yet more athletic than the Florida State star. Then there’s the issue of his lack of collegiate touches. Impact backs almost always get the ball with more frequency. If you select Freeman, your best case scenario is probably waiting for a couple of seasons for him to carve out a Shane Vereen-type role on his new squad.

Antonio Andrews – Mark Ingram 2.0

Name Weight 40 Speed Agility Vert RuAtt RuYds RuTDs YPC Rec RecYds
Antonio Andrews 225 4.82 83.4 11.73 29.5 267 1730 16 6.5 41 470
Average 223 4.73 89.5 11.64 31.1 245 1343 15 5.7 33 360
Name Weight 40 Speed Agility Vert RuAtt RuYds RuTDs YPC Rec RecYds
Jason Wright 210 4.68 87.6 11.49 30 267 1388 20 5.2 18 251
Stepfan Taylor 214 4.76 83.4 11.63 30 322 1530 13 4.8 41 287
Dicenzo Miller 215 4.93 72.8 11.64 31 160 1005 10 6.3 24 344
Mark Ingram 215 4.62 94.4 11.75 31.5 271 1658 17 6.1 32 334
Anthony Thomas 229 4.58 104.1 11.92 32.5 287 1551 16 5.4 13 239
Zach Line 232 4.77 89.6 11.52 33 277 1278 13 4.6 33 229
Nate Ilaoa 245 4.77 94.7 11.52 30 131 990 13 7.6 67 837

We’re developing a little bit of a theme. Successful NFL prospects don’t run a 4.82 forty or post an 11.73 Agility Score. On the other hand, Andrews is the first member of our red flag cadre to finish well ahead of his comparables in on-field results. That’s why I believe his closest comparison is former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram. I’ve used Ingram’s award-winning season here instead of his final season in order to illustrate the similarities. Many believed Ingram would be a star in the NFL despite his lack of athleticism, but one of my first high profile articles on Money in the Banana Stand suggested this would not be the case. I strongly prefer Khiry Robinson for 2014 and recommend not getting caught up in Andrews’ siren song this draft season.

 

If you liked this article, you’ll love the preseason and in-season content as well as the suite of league-destroying appsSubscribe to RotoViz.

Shawn Siegele is the creator of the contrarian sports website Money in the Banana Stand and Lead Writer for Pro Football Focus Fantasy.

 

Subscribe for a constant stream of league-beating articles available only with a Premium Pass.

By Shawn Siegele | @ff_contrarian | Archive

No Comment

Leave a reply