Delayed Gratification Works for NFL Teams, Probably Just Works in General
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Jason Lisk wrote a piece at The Big Lead where he did some math on how well teams do when they trade away picks this year for more higher picks in the future. From the piece:
26 total trades made during the 2000 to 2009 drafts were reviewed. The result? The team “delaying gratification” is getting close to a 50% return on the investment–rates that would qualify as usurious. Using the Approximate Value numbers at Pro Football Reference, the team trading for a pick now, and giving up a better pick in the future, got 16.5 points, versus giving up 25.2 points in value. That’s a 152% rate of return by delaying a year, from the perspective of the patient team. Those actual results are similar to the hypothetical rate we get by using the draft pick value calculator, which calculated the team acquiring the future pick would get a 157% rate of return.That’s nice because our own Renee Mille has written on delayed gratification as well: