As I’ve been going through my RB model a name that consistently ranks in the top 3, almost no matter which variables I add in or take out of the model, is Jordan Matthews. On the flip side, one name that consistently hovers outside the top five WRs in this class is Mike Evans. This is a draft agnostic model, so at some point I’ll end up addressing the huge disparity that’s likely to exist in their draft slots, but it’s interesting nonetheless. It also makes me wonder if we weren’t too lenient on Evans to hand him the title in our bracket contest.
I thought I would take a look at them by looking at games where they faced common opponents, as I’ve done with a few other pairs of prospects. As you can see from the table below, Matthews kind of dominated Evans.
Across the board Matthews posted better numbers than Evans and the only saving grace for Evans is that he was on average a year younger than Matthews when facing the opponents. But the funny thing is that even on the number that you would expect Evans to dominate – touchdowns – Matthews has a comfortable lead.
The table below will show each of the individual box scores if you’re into that kind of thing. I should mention that when I do an exercise like this I’m not thinking about whether I will move Matthews ahead of Evans in my final rankings. I’m really just trying to decide how much I like Matthews as a late value. At this point it looks like Matthews will be available in the 1.05-1.10 range so I’m just trying to figure out which of the guys in that range I like the most.