CanonDynastyFootball

The Phenom Index: A Breakthrough in Wide Receiver Evaluation for the NFL Draft

What if you could tune out all the noise about the NFL Draft and focus on one number that could dramatically improve the accuracy of your evaluation?  Is that something you might be interested in?

For more than a year now the RotoViz crew has been obsessing over prospect age.  All things being equal, you’d rather have the 21 year old rookie over the 23 year old, right?  Unfortunately we haven’t been able to streamline this into an easily digestible number.

Until now.

Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to the Phenom Index.  Over the weekend I experimented with a metric that weighs college production by age and it proved to be significant when solving for Fantasy Points per Game for each of the first four seasons of a wide receivers’ career.  It also works on tight end prospects, but more to come on that later.  So how is this metric created?

The concept of age-weighted production first became obvious to me when reading Shawn Siegele’s Breakout Age is the Skeleton Key.  That inspired me to dig a little deeper which led to How to pick better Wide Receivers for Fantasy Football and the realization that receivers who breakout at age 22 or later have about zero chance to become elite Fantasy receivers.  James Todd’s visualization of Dominator Rating and Breakout Age was the first time when I realized there is in fact an aging/production curve.  And finally, Fantasy Douche’s Age Adjusted Dominator Rating was a huge inspiration that led me to this…

 

The Phenom Index (PI)

We all know that Dominator Rating is important.  As a refresher, Dominator Rating (DR) looks at the market share of a team’s passing offense–yards and touchdowns– for which a player is responsible.  It doesn’t care whether a receivers comes from a 5-wide offense or a west coast offense, all that matters is the market share; not the raw stats.  Similarly, age is an important factor.  It’s better to be 19 years old and whooping on 21 year old defenders than it is to be 23 years old and dominating people two years younger than you.  Makes sense?

To create the Phenom Index I standardized both final season Dominator Rating and final season Age and then divided the two (DRindex/AGEindex).  It’s pretty simple when you think about it, but it’s pretty remarkable in its implementation.  Just how remarkable?

The Phenom Index and NFL Success

Looking at hundreds of WR prospects from 2006 through 2013–both drafted and undrafted–I tested the PI against Fantasy Points per Game through their first 1, 2, 3 and 4 seasons respectively.  This is 100% blind to any other metric like draft position, 40 time, weight, etc; just production against the PI.

Fantasy P/G HorizonSample SizePhenom Index Correlation (r^2)
First Season52816.1%
First 2 Seasons46420.9%
First 3 Seasons38123.1%
First 4 Seasons31026.5%

Under the new CBA, almost every rookie contract is four years.  Considering that year to year correlations even among NFL players is pretty low, having a simple number like this explain 26% of the variance in fantasy scoring for NFL prospects is pretty damn cool.  What’s even more encouraging to me is the fact that the correlation improves 3-4% per year, indicating that the “cream of the crop will rise to the top” as they are given an opportunity to contribute.  Note that there were about 60 players per draft included in the study, which means that guys who never caught an NFL pass (and their zero FP/G) remained in this sample.  I could have removed those guys to try to improve the correlation, but I wanted to be as inclusive as possible.  Even when casting such a wide net, the Phenom Index proves its worth.

If we DO include draft position, which is an overwhelmingly significant variable in any model I have ever tested, the utility of the Phenom Index becomes, well, even more phenomenal.  The table below is Fantasy P/G correlation with two variables: Draft Position and the PI.

Fantasy P/G HorizonSample SizePhenom Index w/ Draft Correlation (r^2)
First Season52838.3%
First 2 Seasons46445.3%
First 3 Seasons38145.8%
First 4 Seasons31044.7%

Nearly 50% of the success a receiver will achieve during their rookie contract is attributable to where they are drafted and how strong their Phenom Index score is.  With just those two variables and no other knowledge you could explain about 45% of the variance in fantasy scoring for wide receivers. Remember, this does not factor in agility score, speed score, vertical jump, or ANYTHING else.  If we include variables like physical measures or conference, the predictive nature of this model gets even better.

So there you have it.  Age weighted production DOES matter and the Phenom Index is a simple way to think about the age-production curve.  This will be a remarkable addition to our tool belt when analyzing prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft.  I know you want to see real-life examples of this, so I’ve included the chart below.  As far as the 2013 and 2014 wide receivers go, stay tuned.

Hey Dolphins, good job on that Clyde Gates pick.  You too, Chiefs, with that Devon Wylie pick.

Historical Phenom Index Scores 2006-2012

WRDraftOverallNFL TeamConferencePhenom INDEX
Josh Gordon201239BrownsBig 124.29
Dezmon Briscoe2010191BengalsBig 123.349
Dwayne Jarrett200745PanthersPac 123.215
Sidney Rice200744VikingsSEC3.138
Kenny Britt200930TitansBig East3.092
Dez Bryant201024CowboysBig 123.002
Eric Page2012270UDFAMAC2.932
Stephen Hill201243JetsACC2.838
Hakeem Nicks200929GiantsACC2.734
Rueben Randle201263GiantsSEC2.698
Randall Cobb201164PackersSEC2.576
Calvin Johnson20072LionsACC2.496
Greg Little201159BrownsACC2.483
Chad Jackson200636PatriotsSEC2.404
Earl Bennett200870BearsSEC2.264
Jeremy Maclin200919EaglesBig 122.233
Demaryius Thomas201022BroncosACC2.226
Danario Alexander2010270UDFABig 122.216
Jerome Simpson200846BengalsFCS2.182
Devin Thomas200834RedskinsBig Ten2.149
Maurice Stovall200690BuccaneersIND2.065
Greg Lee2006270UDFABig East2.058
Drouzon Quillen2006270UDFASun Belt2.057
Brian Robiskie200936BrownsBig Ten2.055
Percy Harvin200922VikingsSEC2.049
Miles Austin2006270UDFAnon-FBS2.011
Golden Tate201060SeahawksIND1.999
Kevin Ogletree2009270UDFAACC1.949
Kyle Williams201020649ersPac 121.945
Mario Manningham200895GiantsBig Ten1.939
Phillip Payne2012270UDFAMTN West1.937
Taveon Rogers2012270UDFAWAC1.853
Santonio Holmes200625SteelersBig Ten1.831
David Richmond2009270UDFAWAC1.822
Armon Binns2011270UDFABig East1.819
Chris Williams2009270UDFAWAC1.818
Eron Riley2009270UDFAACC1.814
Leonard Hankerson201179RedskinsACC1.801
Domenik Hixon2006130BroncosMAC1.796
Laurent Robinson200775Falconsnon-FBS1.784
Darvin Adams2011270UDFASEC1.776
Tim Brown2010270UDFABig East1.76
Brandon Tate200983PatriotsACC1.739
DeSean Jackson200849EaglesPac 121.731
AJ Jenkins20123049ersBig Ten1.723
Brandon Gibson2009194EaglesPac 121.713
Damian Williams201077TitansPac 121.703
Brandon Marshall2006119BroncosCUSA1.702
Travis Brown2008270UDFAMTN West1.698
Chris Matthews2011270UDFASEC1.693
Malcolm Kelly200851RedskinsBig 121.679
James Hardy200841BillsBig Ten1.676
Michael Crabtree20091049ersBig 121.674
Curtis Hamilton2008270UDFAnon-FBS1.666
Ryne Robinson2007118PanthersMAC1.629
Shawn Bayes2009270UDFAMAC1.625
Jovon Bouknight2006270UDFAMTN West1.622
Jonathan Baldwin201126ChiefsBig East1.615
Pierre Garcon2008205Coltsnon-FBS1.614
Mike Walker200779JaguarsCUSA1.608
Antonio Brown2010195SteelersMAC1.605
Marcus Easley2010107BillsBig East1.581
Torrey Smith201158RavensACC1.578
Naaman Roosevelt2010270UDFAMAC1.563
Steve Johnson2008224BillsSEC1.548
Brandon Breazell2008270UDFAPac 121.547
Will Blackmon2006115PackersACC1.543
Greg Jennings200652PackersMAC1.541
Devier Posey201268TexansBig Ten1.536
Eric Decker201087BroncosBig Ten1.536
Terrence Austin2010219RedskinsPac 121.53
Chandler Williams2007233VikingsSun Belt1.527
Jeff Maehl2011270UDFAPac 121.524
Tandon Doss2011123RavensBig Ten1.521
Mike Williams2010101BuccaneersBig East1.508
Alshon Jeffery201245BearsSEC1.503
TY Hilton201292ColtsSun Belt1.499
Chris Givens WF201296RamsACC1.497
Jordy Nelson200836PackersBig 121.481
Titus Young201144LionsWAC1.476
Justin Blackmon20125JaguarsBig 121.466
Lavelle Hawkins2008126TitansPac 121.462
Ryan Grice-Mullen2008270UDFAWAC1.46
Brian Quick201233Ramsnon-FBS1.457
Derek Hagan200682DolphinsPac 121.452
Steve Smith200751GiantsPac 121.448
Donald Jones2010270UDFAnon-FBS1.446
Michael Floyd201213CardinalsIND1.443
Robert Meachem200727SaintsSEC1.44
Freddie Barnes2010270UDFAMAC1.438
Rishard Matthews2012227DolphinsWAC1.437
Darius Reynaud2008270UDFABig East1.432
Vincent Brown201182ChargersMTN West1.432
Jarius Wright2012118VikingsSEC1.428
Marvin McNutt2012194EaglesBig Ten1.426
DeAndre Brown2011270UDFACUSA1.421
Lavasier Tuinei2012270UDFAPac 121.411
Brennan Marion2009270UDFACUSA1.404
Logan Payne2007270UDFABig Ten1.4
AJ Green20114BengalsSEC1.392
Dontavia Bogan2011270UDFABig East1.39
Aldrick Robinson2011178RedskinsCUSA1.383
Brandon Williams20068449ersBig Ten1.382
Shay Hodge2010270UDFASEC1.377
Darrius Heyward-Bey20097RaidersACC1.377
Nelson Rosario2012270UDFAPac 121.375
Gerald Jones2011270UDFASEC1.375
Craig Davis200730ChargersSEC1.372
Damon Morton2008270UDFAMTN West1.37
Kendall Wright201220TitansBig 121.358
James Kirkendoll2011270UDFABig 121.349
Ted Ginn20079DolphinsBig Ten1.347
Jeremy Williams2010270UDFACUSA1.342
Julio Jones20116FalconsSEC1.34
Martin Nance2006270UDFAMAC1.335
Mark Dell2011270UDFABig Ten1.334
Juaquin Iglesias200999BearsBig 121.325
Jason Hill20077649ersPac 121.319
Niles Paul2011155RedskinsBig 121.317
Jeff Samardzija2007270UDFAIND1.316
Denarius Moore2011148RaidersSEC1.31
Carlton Mitchell2010177BrownsBig East1.309
Patrick Turner200987DolphinsPac 121.305
Duke Calhoun2010270UDFACUSA1.301
Todd Blythe2008270UDFABig 121.294
Eddie Royal200842BroncosACC1.288
Hank Baskett2006270UDFAMTN West1.286
Johnny Quinn2007270UDFASun Belt1.283
Dane Sanzenbacher2011270UDFABig Ten1.282
Greg Orton2009270UDFABig Ten1.278
Dwayne Bowe200723ChiefsSEC1.278
Juron Criner2012168RaidersPac 121.278
Chaz Schilens2008226RaidersMTN West1.272
Mike Hass2006171SaintsPac 121.271
Mohamed Sanu201283BengalsBig East1.265
B.J. Cunningham2012183DolphinsBig Ten1.262
Marcus Henry2008171JetsBig 121.254
Adrian Arrington2008237SaintsBig Ten1.24
Lestar Jean2011270UDFASun Belt1.238
Bruce Francis2009270UDFAMAC1.237
Terrence Toliver2011270UDFASEC1.237
James Jones200778PackersWAC1.232
Chad Hall2008270UDFAMTN West1.227
Jared Perry2010270UDFABig 121.218
Damarlo Belcher2012270UDFABig Ten1.217
Kris Adams2011270UDFACUSA1.217
Jeremy Kerley2011153JetsMTN West1.216
Mike Thomas2009107JaguarsPac 121.216
Arrelious Benn201039BuccaneersBig Ten1.212
Jamel Hamler2011270UDFAWAC1.211
Detron Lewis2011270UDFABig 121.209
Kerry Reed2007270UDFABig Ten1.208
Brandon LaFell201078PanthersSEC1.207
Adarius Bowman2008270UDFABig 121.204
Kenny McKinley2009141BroncosSEC1.201
Greg Ellingson2011270UDFASun Belt1.199
David Anderson2006251TexansMTN West1.196
Greg Salas2011112RamsWAC1.194
Louis Murphy2009124RaidersSEC1.189
Maurice Purify2008270UDFABig 121.183
Sinorice Moss200644GiantsACC1.182
Jason Avant2006109EaglesBig Ten1.181
Toney Clemons2012231SteelersPac 121.18
Gerell Robinson2012270UDFAPac 121.179
Jerrel Jernigan201183GiantsSun Belt1.172
Eric Peterman2009270UDFABig Ten1.17
Dwight Jones2012270UDFAACC1.168
Jeremy Ebert2012235PatriotsBig Ten1.165
Kenneth Moore2008136LionsACC1.164
Mohamed Massaquoi200950BrownsSEC1.164
Riley Cooper2010159EaglesSEC1.163
Jeff Fuller2012270UDFABig 121.157
Marcus Monk2008248BearsSEC1.15
Cecil Shorts2011114Jaguarsnon-FBS1.148
Brian Paysinger2008270UDFAPac 121.145
Clinton Solomon2006270UDFABig Ten1.145
Kevin Robinson2008182ChiefsWAC1.139
Marvin Jones2012166BengalsPac 121.134
Casey Fitzgerald2009270UDFASun Belt1.124
Syndric Steptoe2007234BrownsPac 121.117
Austin Collie2009127ColtsMTN West1.117
Max Komar2010270UDFAWAC1.116
Brandon Banks2010270UDFABig 121.115
Briggs Orsbon2012270UDFAMAC1.112
Victor Cruz2010270UDFAnon-FBS1.108
LaVon Brazill2012206ColtsMAC1.101
Darius Reynolds2012270UDFABig 121.101
Nate Jones2008270UDFABig 121.095
Keshawn Martin2012121TexansBig Ten1.091
Emmanuel Sanders201082SteelersCUSA1.09
Brett Swain2008217PackersMTN West1.09
Markeith Summers2011270UDFASEC1.088
Doug Baldwin2011270UDFAPac 121.087
Terence Scott2009270UDFAPac 121.085
Jarrett Boykin2012270UDFAACC1.08
Deyon Williams2007270UDFAACC1.077
Brian Hartline2009108DolphinsBig Ten1.077
Juan Nunez2011270UDFAMAC1.072
Jamarko Simmons2009270UDFAMAC1.069
Rhema McKnight2007270UDFAIND1.068
Anthony Gonzalez200732ColtsBig Ten1.067
David Reed2010156RavensMTN West1.067
Jarett Dillard2009144JaguarsCUSA1.067
Johnnie Lee Higgins200799RaidersCUSA1.064
Eddie Thompson2009270UDFAnon-FBS1.064
Seyi Ajirotutu2010270UDFAWAC1.063
Demetrius Williams2006111RavensPac 121.062
Taylor Price201090PatriotsMAC1.06
Rich Gunnell2010270UDFAACC1.056
Jordan White2012244JetsMAC1.055
Jacoby Ford2010108RaidersACC1.055
Jordan Norwood2009270UDFABig Ten1.055
Michael Jones2009270UDFAPac 121.054
Jermaine Kearse2012270UDFAPac 121.053
Aundrae Allison2007146VikingsCUSA1.052
Damien Linson2007270UDFAMAC1.052
Terrence McCrae2011270UDFAMAC1.05
Robert Jordan2008270UDFAPac 121.045
Kealoha Pilares2011132PanthersWAC1.04
Kamar Aiken2011270UDFACUSA1.039
Mike Wallace200984SteelersSEC1.039
Michael Washington2009270UDFAnon-FBS1.039
D.J. Boldin2009270UDFAACC1.039
Ryan Moore2007270UDFAACC1.037
John Dunlap2008270UDFAACC1.037
Justin Brown2009270UDFAnon-FBS1.036
Darius Passmore2009270UDFACUSA1.026
Bret Smith2007270UDFASEC1.022
Early Doucet200881CardinalsSEC1.021
Royce Pollard2012270UDFAWAC1.018
Todd Watkins2006218CardinalsMTN West1.013
Brandon Myles2007270UDFABig East1.012
Ronald Johnson201118249ersPac 121.012
John Madsen2006270UDFAMTN West1.008
Drisan James2007270UDFAWAC1.006
John Broussard2007229JaguarsWAC1.005
Jonathan Orr2006172TitansBig Ten1.004
Freddie Brown2009252BengalsMTN West1.004
Marques Colston2006252Saintsnon-FBS1.003
Brad Ekwerekwu2007270UDFABig 121.003
Johnathan Holland2007254RaidersWAC1.002
Cory Rodgers2006104PackersMTN West0.999
Davone Bess2008270UDFAWAC0.989
Andrew Brewer2010270UDFABig Ten0.986
Blair White2010270UDFABig Ten0.986
Kris Burd2012270UDFAACC0.985
Marko Mitchell2009243RedskinsWAC0.984
Marcus Smith2008106RavensMTN West0.984
David Gettis2010198PanthersBig 120.982
Aaron Valentin2010270UDFABig Ten0.978
Lyle Leong2011270UDFABig 120.976
Travis Benjamin2012100BrownsACC0.975
Donovan Varner2012270UDFAACC0.974
Kerry Taylor2011270UDFAPac 120.974
Ryan Whalen2011167BengalsPac 120.974
Derek Moye2012270UDFABig Ten0.973
Tiquan Underwood2009253JaguarsBig East0.97
Tommy Streeter2012198RavensACC0.969
Jabari Arthur2008270UDFAMAC0.967
Josh Morgan200817449ersACC0.966
Alric Arnett2010270UDFABig East0.961
Jason Carter2006270UDFABig 120.961
Sammie Stroughter2009233BuccaneersPac 120.959
Patrick Edwards2012270UDFACUSA0.959
TJ Graham201269BillsACC0.957
Verran Tucker2010270UDFAPac 120.956
Armand Robinson2011270UDFAMAC0.955
Joe Fernandez2007270UDFAWAC0.954
Griff Whalen2012270UDFAPac 120.953
Aaron Kelly2009270UDFAACC0.952
Kerry Meier2010165FalconsBig 120.951
Scotty McKnight2011227JetsBig 120.95
Andre Caldwell200897BengalsSEC0.95
Jason Rivers2008270UDFAWAC0.948
Harry Douglas200884FalconsBig East0.948
Michael Bumpus2008270UDFAPac 120.947
Kashif Moore2012270UDFABig East0.945
Jayson Swain2007270UDFASEC0.945
Jordan Shipley201084BengalsBig 120.944
Joel Filani2007188TitansBig 120.942
Jock Sanders2011270UDFABig East0.941
Nate Swift2009270UDFABig 120.94
Jason Chery2009270UDFASun Belt0.939
Cameron Kenney2011270UDFABig 120.939
Austin Pettis201178RamsWAC0.932
Nick Toon2012122SaintsBig Ten0.932
Nick Moore2009270UDFAMAC0.929
Damaris Johnson2012270UDFACUSA0.927
Lucas Taylor2009270UDFASEC0.926
Donnie Avery200833RamsCUSA0.921
Manuel Johnson2009229CowboysBig 120.918
Mardy Gilyard201099RamsBig East0.918
Taurus Johnson2009270UDFABig East0.917
Mike Willie2012270UDFAPac 120.917
Damola Adeniji2010270UDFAPac 120.911
Courtney Taylor2007197SeahawksSEC0.909
Dorien Bryant2008270UDFABig Ten0.908
Deon Butler200991SeahawksBig Ten0.908
David Clowney2007157PackersACC0.906
Marcus Rivers2012270UDFAMAC0.905
Mario Urrutia2008246BengalsBig East0.902
Tyler Shoemaker2012270UDFAMTN West0.894
D'Juan Woods2007270UDFABig 120.893
Chansi Stuckey2007235JetsACC0.89
Ryan Broyles201254LionsBig 120.888
Maurice Covington2009270UDFAACC0.887
Tyler Grisham2009270UDFAACC0.886
Eric Deslauriers2007270UDFAMAC0.882
Ernest Jackson2009270UDFAMAC0.879
Anthony Russo2008270UDFAPac 120.877
Nathan Palmer2012270UDFAMAC0.871
Derek Kinder2009251BearsBig East0.871
Danny Amendola2008270UDFABig 120.869
Jordan Kent2007210SeahawksPac 120.865
James Cleveland2011270UDFACUSA0.864
Trent Guy2010270UDFABig East0.862
Preston Parker2010270UDFAnon-FBS0.861
Andrew Means2009270UDFABig Ten0.859
Nichiren Flowers2006270UDFAWAC0.858
Wes Kemp2012270UDFABig 120.858
Nate Morton2007270UDFAACC0.851
Demetrius Byrd2009224ChargersSEC0.851
Vincent Marshall2007270UDFACUSA0.85
Limas Sweed200853SteelersBig 120.85
Marlon Moore2010270UDFAWAC0.84
Johnny Knox2009140Bearsnon-FBS0.838
Tres Moses2006270UDFABig East0.837
Junior Hemingway2012238ChiefsBig Ten0.836
Joe Adams2012104PanthersSEC0.836
Derrell Johnson-Koulianos2011270UDFABig Ten0.833
Scott Long2010270UDFABig East0.833
Dwayne Harris2011176CowboysCUSA0.829
Bryan Anderson2010270UDFAMAC0.825
Chris McGaha2010270UDFAPac 120.824
D.J. Woods2012270UDFABig East0.823
Jerard Rabb2007270UDFAWAC0.822
Jaison Williams2009270UDFAPac 120.822
Mark Bradford2008270UDFAPac 120.818
David Gilreath2011270UDFABig Ten0.817
John Chiles2011270UDFABig 120.816
Stephen Williams2010270UDFAMAC0.815
Kris Durham2011107SeahawksSEC0.813
Chris Davis2007128TitansACC0.812
Josh Briscoe2009270UDFASEC0.81
Paul Williams200780TitansWAC0.809
William Franklin2008105ChiefsBig 120.805
Jason Harmon2010270UDFASun Belt0.803
Ed Hinkel2006270UDFABig Ten0.801
Greg Mathews2010270UDFABig Ten0.8
Luke Swan2008270UDFABig Ten0.796
Matt Simon2009270UDFAMAC0.795
Chris Owusu2012270UDFAPac 120.795
Andre Jones2010270UDFAMAC0.794
Derrick Williams200982LionsBig Ten0.789
D'Andre Goodwin2011270UDFAPac 120.787
James Rodgers2012270UDFAPac 120.784
Ryan Wolfe2010270UDFAMTN West0.783
Frantrell Forrest2011270UDFACUSA0.782
Jay Smith2012270UDFAACC0.78
Keenan Burton2008128RamsSEC0.779
Jemalle Cornelius2007270UDFASEC0.777
Kerry Franks2008270UDFABig 120.775
Marshall Williams2011270UDFAACC0.773
Damarius Bilbo2006270UDFAACC0.77
Johnny Walker2008270UDFAMTN West0.768
Jesse Holley2007270UDFAACC0.768
Dallas Baker2007227SteelersSEC0.763
Greg Carr2009270UDFAACC0.76
Jamar Newsome2011270UDFACUSA0.76
Carl Moore2011270UDFASEC0.759
Steve Odom2007270UDFAMAC0.758
Adron Tennell2010270UDFABig 120.757
Isaiah Williams2009270UDFAACC0.753
Jeff Moturi2010270UDFACUSA0.753
Legedu Naanee2007172ChargersWAC0.752
David Douglas2012270UDFAPac 120.751
Chris Francies2006270UDFACUSA0.75
L.J. Castile2011270UDFAnon-FBS0.749
Earnest Jackson2008270UDFABig East0.744
Terry Richardson2007270UDFAPac 120.742
Richard Goodman2010270UDFAACC0.736
Jerrell Jackson2012270UDFABig 120.731
Owen Spencer2011270UDFAACC0.73
Brooks Foster2009160RamsACC0.729
Brandon Robinson2009270UDFAACC0.729
Chastin West2010270UDFAWAC0.725
Amarri Jackson2008270UDFABig East0.724
Matt Trannon2007270UDFABig Ten0.716
Taj Smith2008270UDFABig East0.715
Bart Johnson2011270UDFAMTN West0.709
Brett Hamlin2010270UDFAMAC0.709
LaRon Byrd2012270UDFAACC0.707
Danny Coale2012152CowboysACC0.705
Thomas White2009270UDFABig 120.701
Tori Gurley2011270UDFASEC0.7
Keith Brown2008270UDFASEC0.697
Jon Davis2009270UDFAnon-FBS0.691
Rashaun Greer2010270UDFAMTN West0.689
Darius Hanks2012270UDFASEC0.689
Yamon Figurs200774RavensBig 120.679
Paul Hubbard2008191BrownsBig Ten0.674
Vidal Hazelton2011270UDFABig East0.673
Kevin Jurovich2010270UDFAWAC0.673
Aaron Pflugrad2012270UDFAPac 120.672
Keith Smith2011270UDFABig Ten0.664
Steve Breaston2007142CardinalsBig Ten0.664
Bert Reed2012270UDFAACC0.657
Greg Childs2012134VikingsSEC0.656
Joe West2008270UDFACUSA0.655
Jon Davis2007270UDFABig 120.655
Hubert Anyiam2012270UDFABig 120.653
Jarrett Hicks2007270UDFABig 120.652
Nyan Boateng2010270UDFAPac 120.652
Bradon Godfrey2009270UDFAMTN West0.651
Trey Stross2010270UDFABig Ten0.651
Darrell Blackman2008270UDFAACC0.648
Terrell Zachery2011270UDFASEC0.644
Demarco Sampson2011249CardinalsMTN West0.641
Matt Caddell2008270UDFASEC0.637
Rodgeriqus Smith2009270UDFASEC0.633
Keith Nichol2012270UDFABig Ten0.626
Lance Leggett2008270UDFAACC0.625
Patrick Williams2009270UDFABig 120.623
Josh Cooper2012270UDFABig 120.619
Lorne Sam2008270UDFACUSA0.619
Jarred Fayson2011270UDFABig Ten0.614
Michael Calvin2012270UDFAPac 120.614
David Ausberry2011241RaidersPac 120.613
Willie Reid200695SteelersACC0.612
Jeron Harvey2008270UDFACUSA0.606
Rudy Burgess2008270UDFAPac 120.605
Brent Casteel2009270UDFAMTN West0.598
James Finley2007270UDFAPac 120.594
Brandon Kinnie2012270UDFABig Ten0.586
Devon Wylie2012107ChiefsWAC0.585
Vinny Perretta2009270UDFAWAC0.585
Michael Moore2010270UDFASEC0.572
Kenneth Harris2009270UDFASEC0.56
Roberto Wallace2010270UDFAMTN West0.553
Terrance Turner2011270UDFABig Ten0.551
Larry Taylor2008270UDFABig East0.55
Jimmy Young2011270UDFAMTN West0.548
Marquis Maze2012270UDFASEC0.548
Taylor Embree2012270UDFAPac 120.541
Dustin Woods2010270UDFAMAC0.537
Darnell Jenkins2008270UDFAACC0.534
Quentin Chaney2009270UDFABig 120.534
Jeremy Ross2011270UDFAPac 120.529
Quan Cosby2009270UDFABig 120.528
Quintin McCree2012270UDFAACC0.526
David Nelson2010270UDFASEC0.525
Sam Kirkland2012270UDFAMAC0.523
Ray Small2010270UDFABig Ten0.52
C.J. Hawthorne2008270UDFAWAC0.511
Tyron Carrier2012270UDFACUSA0.508
Clyde Gates2011111Dolphinsnon-FBS0.501
Jahkeen Gilmore2007270UDFABig Ten0.5
Marcus Everett2009270UDFAPac 120.494
Britt Davis2009270UDFAMAC0.493
Marcus Fitzgerald2008270UDFACUSA0.487
Luther Ambrose2012270UDFASun Belt0.467
Jamayel Smith2009270UDFASEC0.462
Jerramy Scott2007270UDFABig Ten0.442
London Crawford2010270UDFASEC0.434
Gary Banks2008270UDFASun Belt0.404
Billy Pittman2008270UDFABig 120.403
McKay Jacobson2012270UDFAIND0.397

If you have made any interesting discoveries lately with new/interesting metrics, please leave a comment.  I’d be excited to read about it.

Jon Moore is a coach at RotoAcademy and creator of The College Football Experiment.  Continue this conversation with him on Twitter or Google+.

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By Jon Moore | @HelloJonMoore | Archive

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