Can College Conference Predict WR Fantasy Success, and Should We Be More Scared About Allen Robinson?

Allen Robinson 1 Jonathan Bales is the founder of RotoAcademy—a fantasy football training school—and author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. After I published a breakdown of wide receiver production by college conference, the Fantasy Douche, aka RotoViz Staff, aka Frank DuPont, aka Ol’ Dirty Bastard asked me how that production compares to our expecatations. Certain conferences will naturally have players selected higher than others, so it’s important that we account for changes in draft slot when analyzing each conference. We’d never expect small-school conferences to continually outperform the BCS conferences in terms of raw stats, but that might not be the case after adjusting for draft slot. That’s what we saw with running backs, as I showed in my article One Simple Trick to to Help Identify Undervalued Rookie Running Backs. So I broke down rookie wide receiver production by both draft slot and conference to see which conferences are underachieving. First, take a look at the average draft slot for all receivers drafted since 2003.

Rookie WR Conference 6

The surprise here is the Sun Belt, but that’s due entirely to a small sample. Only T.Y. Hilton, Tyrone Calico, and Jerrel Jernigan were drafted out of the conference since 2003. Hilton was crazy good in his rookie year, which throws off all of the other numbers in this analysis in a three-receiver conference. I don’t want to say I’m throwing out the Sun Belt entirely. . .but I’m throwing out the Sun Belt entirely.

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By Jonathan Bales | @BalesFootball | Archive