Football

Jordan Matthews, Demaryius Thomas and Games Dominated – Yet Another Measure of Prospect Production

dthomas

As I’ve been kicking the tires on the potential to add an age adjustment to the concept of Dominator Rating, one of the things that I’ve stumbled upon is that there might be a really simple way to quantify the age adjustment. I’ve tried throwing things like Age Adjusted Dominator Rating into a regression and so far I haven’t found a way for it to remain significant while a player’s final season DR is also included. But one thing that has been significant even when DR is included is a simple Games Dominated number. It’s just the total number of games in a prospect’s college career that they posted a .35 DR or better (but where games after a player turns 23 are thrown out).

If you think about it, a simple counting metric makes some sense because it is kind of a proxy for prospects that get an early start. But in addition to quantifying how long a prospect has been tearing up the college ranks, it also sets a high bar (.35 DR isn’t easy to achieve) and it caps the influence of games where a prospect might have beat up on some weak teams to the tune of .75 DRs. But the best part is that I was able to backtest it and it maintained significance even when considered with both draft pick number and last season Dominator Rating.

There’s probably a limitation of Games Dominated though to the extent that it will punish players that leave school early. So in order to balance that out, I ran a regression where both Age at Last College Game and Games Dominated are included. The two numbers get at similar ideas but I kept them both in the regression so that where one might fall short, the other can pick up the slack.

Here’s the table that results when you try to project using last season DR, Games Dominated (G_DOM) and Age at Last College Game (MAXAGE). You should be able to sort through the table by clicking on any of the columns. Some thoughts below the table.

Notes: BOA = Breakout Age, or youngest age a player was in a season that they recorded a .30 DR and with 35 assigned to players that never met that threshold in order to preserve the ability to sort the table; Draft = pick in the draft with 500 assigned to undrafted or to be drafted players;

NAMETML_SEASDRAFTDRBOAG_DOMWTMAXAGEPROJ
DEMARYIUS THOMASGeorgia Tech2009220.6319.7021.0022921.9611.94
JORDAN MATTHEWSVanderbilt20135000.4618.2429.0020921.4810.84
CALVIN JOHNSONGeorgia Tech200620.5118.9620.0023921.2810.60
DEZ BRYANTOklahoma State2009240.5418.8414.0022520.8910.35
LARRY FITZGERALDPittsburgh200330.4719.0119.0022520.3410.31
NATE BURLESONNevada2002710.4719.0519.0019221.289.94
BRAYLON EDWARDSMichigan200430.4619.5421.0021121.889.74
CHRIS HENRYWest Virginia2004830.5020.3213.0019721.649.42
JAMES HARDYIndiana2007410.4219.7017.0022022.038.77
DARIUS WATTSMarshall2003540.4018.7119.0019021.968.75
RASHAUN WOODSOklahoma State2003310.4820.8914.0020223.228.71
MIKE WILLIAMSSyracuse20091010.4419.3316.0020422.478.69
BRANDIN COOKSOregon State20135000.3918.9714.0018620.268.65
ERIC DECKERMinnesota2009870.4120.4819.0020622.638.64
CHARLES ROGERSMichigan State200220.4220.3114.0020221.528.63
JORDY NELSONKansas State2007360.4520.2715.0021522.508.63
HAKEEM NICKSNorth Carolina2008290.4018.6514.0021020.978.61
KEENAN ALLENCalifornia2012760.4118.3712.0020620.528.61
JUSTIN GAGEMissouri20021430.4119.6216.0020821.848.56
EDELL SHEPHERDSan Jose State20015000.4520.3310.0017521.558.49
GREG JENNINGSWestern Michigan2005520.4119.9517.0019522.198.49
JARETT DILLARDRice20081440.3619.7325.0018523.048.46
STEDMAN BAILEYWest Virginia2012920.4120.8316.0019322.158.45
LEE EVANSWisconsin2003130.4119.4918.0020222.828.44
PAUL RICHARDSONColorado20135000.4218.4113.0017021.658.41
KENDALL WRIGHTBaylor2011200.3818.8119.0019422.148.39
MIKE WILLIAMSSouthern California2003100.3818.6711.0022920.018.38
JUSTIN MCCAREINSNorthern Illinois20001240.4721.768.0021521.988.37
ALEX AMIDONBoston College20135000.4219.5417.0018322.818.36
DWAYNE JARRETTSouthern California2006450.3417.9816.0021920.328.32
NAAMAN ROOSEVELTBuffalo20095000.3918.7016.0018921.908.30
MARIO MANNINGHAMMichigan2007950.4019.3114.0018521.628.28
ALLEN ROBINSONPenn State20135000.3919.0410.0021020.288.26
DEZMON BRISCOEKansas20091910.3619.0113.0020020.268.26
DAVID TERRELLMichigan200080.4621.497.0021521.708.25
AJ JENKINSIllinois2011300.4119.0214.0019222.278.19
GOLDEN TATENotre Dame2009600.4119.1711.0019521.348.17
DEANDRE HOPKINSClemson2012270.3918.2610.0021420.588.15
MICHAEL FLOYDNotre Dame2011130.3718.7918.0022022.108.14
COURTNEY ROBYIndiana2004680.4519.658.0018921.888.07
ROY WILLIAMSTexas200370.3918.7315.0021022.048.07
LEONARD HANKERSONMiami (FL)2010790.4321.3513.0020522.678.06
RODDY WHITEAlabama-Birmingham2004270.4819.869.0020123.168.05
SANTONIO HOLMESOhio State2005250.3919.5014.0018521.858.03
REGGIE WILLIAMSWashington200390.3718.3311.0022520.538.00
RON JOHNSONMinnesota20011230.4020.2911.0022521.527.95
JARVIS LANDRYLouisiana State20135000.3919.7710.0019521.117.94
JUSTIN BLACKMONOklahoma State201150.3720.6716.0021021.997.93
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GARRETT MILLSTulsa20051060.4019.9013.0023022.247.91
AJ GREENGeorgia201040.4020.1014.0020522.437.89
BOBBY WADEArizona20021390.3619.5315.0019321.777.81
SAM HURDNorthern Illinois20055000.3717.369.0018720.627.78
KEVIN WALTEREastern Michigan20022550.3719.0912.0022121.327.77
JOSH REEDLouisiana State2001360.3820.3511.0020821.627.73
JONATHAN SMITHGeorgia Tech20032140.4019.7611.0019422.117.71
KYLE WILLIAMSArizona State20092060.3820.1310.0018521.387.70
DAVANTE ADAMSFresno State20135000.3619.7011.0021621.017.66
MOHAMED SANURutgers2011830.3920.0612.0021522.377.60
KENNY BRITTRutgers2008300.3218.1212.0021520.297.59
TJ JONESNotre Dame20135000.3620.1312.0019421.467.54
ROBERT FERGUSONTexas A&M2000410.4020.735.0020920.927.52
ANTONIO BRYANTPittsburgh2001630.3519.5210.0019220.757.51
ASHLEY LELIEHawaii2001190.3620.5812.0020021.827.49
EARL BENNETTVanderbilt2007700.3118.4614.0020520.697.48
STEPHEN HILLGeorgia Tech2011430.3418.4410.0021520.707.48
TROY WILLIAMSONSouth Carolina200470.3719.4110.0020321.587.46
SIDNEY RICESouth Carolina2006440.2919.0415.0020020.347.44
RUEBEN RANDLELouisiana State2011630.3319.3411.0020520.697.44
SAMMY WATKINSClemson20135000.3318.2310.0020520.577.36
FREDDIE MITCHELLUCLA2000250.4021.787.0018421.997.34
MIKE WALKERCentral Florida2006790.3619.9311.0019722.027.30
BRANDON MARSHALLCentral Florida20051190.3721.469.0022921.777.30
BERNARD REEDYToledo20135000.3619.6811.0017421.937.29
QUINCY MORGANKansas State2000330.5022.94-21023.217.24
DAVID ANDERSONColorado State20052510.3320.1015.0019522.427.19
ALSHON JEFFERYSouth Carolina2011450.3219.5514.0023021.887.17
TY HILTONFlorida International2011920.3318.8214.0018322.117.14
DEION BRANCHLouisville2001650.3921.148.0019322.377.13
ALDRICK ROBINSONSouthern Methodist20101780.3519.9412.0018422.287.13
AUNDRAE ALLISONEast Carolina20061460.3219.3910.0019820.697.12
DAMIAN WILLIAMSSouthern California2009770.3520.289.0019021.607.06
HANK BASKETTNew Mexico20055000.4120.148.0022023.227.04
JAMES JONESSan Jose State2006780.3820.449.0020822.757.02
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MARQISE LEESouthern California20135000.2819.7918.0019522.097.02
DANARIO ALEXANDERMissouri20095000.4823.101.0022123.427.01
DONTE STALLWORTHTennessee2001130.3620.826.0019721.096.98
CHRIS GIVENSWake Forest2011960.3419.7611.0019822.086.98
EMMANUEL SANDERSSouthern Methodist2009820.3419.4813.0018622.796.94
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MICHAEL CLAYTONLouisiana State2003150.3118.9011.0019721.246.88
CHAD JACKSONFlorida2005360.3319.537.0020520.846.86
KOREN ROBINSONNorth Carolina State200090.3420.475.0020520.706.83
TAYLOR JACOBSFlorida2002440.3721.275.0019821.616.83
DWAYNE BOWELouisiana State2006230.3119.9714.0022122.306.80
BRANDON MIDDLETONHouston20035000.3919.687.0019022.996.80
DEVIER POSEYOhio State2011680.3720.599.0021122.916.79
DEVIN THOMASMichigan State2007340.3519.915.0021521.136.78
BRIAN ROBISKIEOhio State2008360.2819.7613.0020721.116.78
JURON CRINERArizona20111680.2819.7515.0022421.976.75
ROBERT MEACHEMTennessee2006270.3521.949.0021422.276.74
JASON HILLWashington State2006760.2619.5516.0020421.726.72
DOMENIK HIXONAkron20051300.3219.928.0019221.236.70
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ANQUAN BOLDINFlorida State2002540.3621.907.0021822.266.66
MARKUS WHEATONOregon State2012790.3319.629.0018921.916.65
JARIUS WRIGHTArkansas20111180.3421.798.0018222.136.62
MICHAEL CRABTREETexas Tech2008100.3019.9810.0021521.326.60
ROYDELL WILLIAMSTulane20041360.3920.468.0019223.746.59
ANDRE JOHNSONMiami (FL)200230.3120.169.0021921.506.56
BRANDON TATENorth Carolina2008830.3219.926.0019521.016.55
ANTONIO BROWNCentral Michigan20091950.3019.1610.0018021.516.55
JULIO JONESAlabama201060.2819.5813.0022021.926.54
PARIS WARRENUtah20042250.3220.9910.0021322.346.53
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TORREY SMITHMaryland2010580.3320.628.0020521.946.49
TAVON AUSTINWest Virginia201280.3019.4910.0017421.816.47
DESEAN JACKSONCalifornia2007490.2618.7712.0017821.106.45
CODY HOFFMANBrigham Young20135000.3019.4914.0021022.816.44
CEDRICK WILSONTennessee20001690.3421.736.0018321.966.43
JOHN STANDEFORDPurdue20035000.2818.4012.0020621.736.42
CHRIS CHAMBERSWisconsin2000520.3722.154.0021022.306.40
STEVE SMITHSouthern California2006510.2919.3310.0019521.676.40
RYAN GRANTTulane20135000.3719.726.0019723.026.39
ROBERT WOODSSouthern California2012410.2818.418.0020120.746.33
DARRIUS HEYWARD BEYMaryland200870.3019.559.0020521.866.32
BRANDON LLOYDIllinois20021240.2920.178.0019221.406.29
JABAR GAFFNEYFlorida2001330.2819.778.0020521.016.29
JASON AVANTMichigan20051090.3522.396.0021022.716.26
KELLY CAMPBELLGeorgia Tech20015000.2820.139.0017321.376.24
REGGIE WAYNEMiami (FL)2000300.3421.805.0019822.046.21
TERRANCE COPPEREast Carolina20035000.3321.494.0020421.736.21
DONTE MONCRIEFMississippi20135000.2418.0910.0022620.416.19
BRANDON LAFELLLouisiana State2009780.3721.845.0020823.186.17
KASSIM OSGOODSan Diego State20025000.3422.296.0020922.566.16
MALCOLM KELLYOklahoma2007510.2218.7313.0021820.936.13
JEREMY MACLINMissouri2008190.2719.327.0020020.656.13
DOUG GABRIELCentral Florida20021670.3221.037.0021522.276.10
DAVID REEDUtah20091560.3422.476.0018822.776.10
ADRIAN ARRINGTONMichigan20072370.3020.838.0018522.166.06
JALEN SAUNDERSOklahoma20135000.2718.948.0015721.276.05
MIKE DAVISTexas20135000.2818.358.0019521.656.04
JERRICHO COTCHERYNorth Carolina State20031080.2720.209.0020021.536.03
LAVELLE HAWKINSCalifornia20071260.2820.167.0018721.486.02
ODELL BECKHAMLouisiana State20135000.2818.846.0019421.086.02
MIKE EVANSTexas A&M20135000.2519.066.0022520.385.96
LAVON BRAZILLOhio20112060.3220.547.0019222.805.96
JOSH BOYCETexas Christian20121020.2619.359.0020621.675.85
DENARIUS MOORETennessee20101480.2819.788.0019522.075.85
STEVE JOHNSONKentucky20072240.2820.774.0021021.105.81
TED GINNOhio State200690.2720.417.0017821.625.78
KEVIN KASPERIowa20001900.3622.692.0019722.925.77
JEREMY KERLEYTexas Christian20101530.2921.846.0018822.165.69
JACOBY FORDClemson20091080.2721.119.0018122.445.69
JOSH HUFFOregon20135000.3120.904.0020522.235.68
SEYI AJIROTUTUFresno State20095000.2921.247.0021122.545.68
KEARY COLBERTSouthern California2003620.2520.308.0020021.635.68
TITUS YOUNGBoise State2010440.2520.057.0017521.355.67
DEREK HAGANArizona State2005820.2418.978.0020521.285.61
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MIKE WALLACEMississippi2008840.2520.1210.0018022.445.52
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EARLY DOUCETLouisiana State2007810.2620.866.0021122.215.32
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ARRELIOUS BENNIllinois2009390.1818.995.0022521.254.46
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ERNEST WILFORDVirginia Tech20031200.3223.63-21824.964.18
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DEVIN AROMASHODUAuburn20052330.1520.303.0020221.633.81
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SCOTTIE VINESWyoming20025000.2323.391.0022023.643.77
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KEVIN SMITHCentral Florida2007640.1335.001.0021021.053.55
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DAVID CLOWNEYVirginia Tech20061570.1320.182.0019021.503.41
ARNOLD JACKSONLouisville20005000.2123.42-16823.633.40
NATE POOLEMarshall20005000.2223.59-20423.853.35
WILLIAM FRANKLINMissouri20071050.1419.903.0020022.233.33
RICKY WILLIAMSTexas Tech20015000.2035.00-19523.253.31
JESSE HOLLEYNorth Carolina20065000.1721.691.0021322.903.30
MARQUISE GOODWINTexas2012780.1320.823.0018322.133.30
QUAN COSBYTexas20085000.2824.71-19126.053.26
BETHEL JOHNSONTexas A&M2002450.2023.57-20023.813.20
BRANDON JACKSONNebraska2006630.1235.00-21021.263.18
GREG LEWISIllinois20025000.1420.573.0018022.793.11
DEVON WYLIEFresno State20111070.1521.023.0018723.273.11
CHRIS HENRYArizona2006500.1235.00-23021.483.05
GLENN HOLTKentucky20055000.1020.111.0019521.343.04
MARK BRADLEYOklahoma2004390.1635.00-20122.953.04
REGGIE GERMANYOhio State20002140.1535.00-18022.672.99
AARON MOOREHEADIllinois20025000.1019.843.0020022.062.97
BAM CHILDRESSOhio State20045000.1435.00-18522.762.83
AHMARD HALLTexas20055000.2435.00-23526.052.78
DEONTE THOMPSONFlorida20115000.1235.002.0020022.902.78
ROBERTO WALLACESan Diego State20095000.1635.00-22523.572.74
ADAM JENNINGSFresno State20051840.1335.002.0018123.142.69
DAVID NELSONFlorida20095000.1422.02-21723.172.68
WALLACE WRIGHTNorth Carolina20055000.0919.821.0019121.812.63
KENNY WATSONPenn State20005000.1235.00-21422.702.58
RASHIED DAVISSan Jose State20015000.0621.132.0018022.262.14
  • Before you run out and make your rookie picks this year based on the ordering in this table, I would wait to know both draft round and situation. Those are extremely important things to consider. Draft pick was not included in this model so that I could illustrate ordering by DR, Max Age and Games Dominated.
  • Keep in mind that this is the equivalent of trying to predict the past. The model fits past observations and hasn’t been tested with out of sample data.
  • I couldn’t get weight to be a significant variable, but if you threw out the guys under 200 pounds I do feel like the hit rate would increase.
  • I wouldn’t consider Jordan Matthews to be a prospect on the level of Demaryius Thomas, Dez, Fitz or Megatron, despite whatever this projection might say. Matthews weighs quite a bit less than those guys and he’ll also be drafted much later.
  • If you wanted to turn this model into a rough system for drafting receivers, you would draft players who had torn up their last season in college, are still entering the NFL at a young age, and had also torn up a number of games in college over their career.

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