Four Undervalued Receivers for 2014
I’m working on getting the Sim Score apps updated for 2014 and while I’m getting closer, the apps won’t be live for about another week. But because this is a great time of year to engineer dynasty trades, I thought I would do a quick piece on the names of four WRs that the app will probably like this year.
Those WRs: Michael Floyd, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith and Brian Hartline. All of the receivers are currently among my top 20 projected WRs for 2014 and you can get all of them for WR25 or cheaper. For dynasty purposes, you can pretty much just look at the re-draft ADP to know what the broad consensus is thinking and you can make trades for guys that are undervalued.
I won’t get heavily into numbers in this post because I still have 6 months to beat you over the head with thenumbers, so today I’ll just discuss some of the qualitative components of the case for each guy.
First, here is each player’s ADP:
In the case of each player we can expect that they will either be their team’s top WR, or essentially tied for WR1 on their own teams. They’re also all over 200 pounds, with Decker and Floyd more in the 215-220 range. Based on my initial projections I’ll probably be talking a lot about Michael Floyd this year because he’s sitting in that WR30 range and I have him as WR16 in my projections. That’s not quite as healthy of a discount as we were seeing for Josh Gordon last year (and I wouldn’t expect Floyd to produce anywhere near to where Gordon did last year, but I still think he’ll be undervalued).
In Eric Decker’s case I would have him as top 10 if playing with Peyton for another year. But even a team change should give you plenty of cushion between his draft cost and his upside. He’s either going to a team where he’ll get a ton of targets, or he’s going to a team where he can be a WR2 running free (based on his salary expectations the former is more likely).
In the case of Torrey Smith I’m sure we all feel like we’ve been taking him in the WR30 part of the draft since forever. That may lead you to think that he’s just fair value at WR27 again this year. But I do think that the Ravens offense could see a good amount of improvement with Gary Kubiak as the coordinator. Kubiak’s offenses always seem to generate a number of big plays and while historically those big plays have gone to the TE, there is a very solid place for the WR1 in that scheme. If you wanted to think about the number of targets that Andre Johnson and Pierre Garcon typically see in a season, that might be a decent way to start thinking about the issue. It’s true that Kubiak tends not to throw it to WRs in the red zone, but Smith’s ADP doesn’t really require red zone dominance in order to return value.
As far as Brian Hartline goes, he’s probably just a bargain bin WR for another year. He overperformed his ADP last year and now he’s at the same ADP again. I don’t know that he’s really a league winner, so maybe there are other WRs that you’ll be taking trying to hit a homerun. But Hartline does look undervalued.
As I said, the apps will be up in about a week and then you can start to play with some of the values for yourself. But to the extent that these names give you any ideas for dynasty trades, go nuts!