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Image credit to NeonTommy/Flickr

Image credit to NeonTommy/Flickr

One of the most fascinating things about Rookies is how their stock dramatically changes throughout draft season.

Player X went nuts at the Combine!  Move him up the board.

Player Y hurt himself while training for the Combine?  Exile him to the 3rd round!

Player Z told the world he was gay.  He’s undraftable!

 

In all seriousness, don’t you think the Rookie stock market is an interesting thing to watch; especially for Fantasy Football?  I’ve always had a suspicion that Dynasty Drafts occurring right after the draft would look dramatically different than those that happen on the weekend before Week 1.  This year, I am conducting an experiment to test this hypothesis.

RotoViz will be hosting three rookie mock drafts between now and week 1 of the NFL season to monitor player movement and market-shifting factors: one before the Combine,  one before the NFL Draft and one during the preseason.

The participants in this rookie mock draft are your peers.  These RotoViz readers were chosen because they had commented on our articles.  After all, this is a two way street.  We LOVE IT when you comment on  our articles.  It makes the RotoViz community better and it makes us better as writers.

So, without further adieu, here are the results of the Pre-Combine 2014 Rookie Mock Draft:

 

Whose Picks Do I Love?

I think Rich (@LordReebs) hit a homerun with Jordan Matthews at 1.9.  As you may recall, Matthews is one of the most prolific game dominators in recent college football history.  People have disagreed with me on Twitter, but I think JMatt will consistently be there in the 1.8 to 1.12 range, which is fantastic value.  I also loved Rich’s pick of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who, for my money, is probably my favorite TE prospect in this draft.  Using the RotoViz College WR Stat Filter I found that ASJ is the most dominant Red Zone tight end of the last eight years.  How do I figure?  Looking at a minimum of 35 RZ targets, he posted a 50% TD rate.  For what it’s worth, Gator Hoskins is the 2nd most prolific.  Rich’s third pick, Antonio Andrews produced two of the top36 yards-from-scrimmage seasons in college football history.  No big deal, right?

Seth (@capnhuggyface) made some really strong picks too.  Jeremy Hill gets less buzz, but at 6’1” and 235lbs he could be this year’s Le’Veon Bell.  Donte Moncrief– seriously, how much fun is that name?– was also a nice scoop.  You might remember Moncrief as one of three players in the 2014 draft to breakout at 18 years old.  Oh and he weighs 220+lbs.  Basically, he has all the Holy Grail Elements working for him.  He rounded out his draft with Blake Bortles, who has a really hot girlfriend and compares to Ben Roethlisberger and Teddy Bridgewater.

Cheers to @JymCollins for going big (or going home) with 40 time suspect Mike Evans, Carlos Hyde and Troy Niklas.  These will probably be three of the biggest movers between now and Week 1.

Shoutout to @FFAvenger for taking Allen Robinson at 1.8.  I have a hunch he’ll be a huge riser over the coming months.

Who Went in a Different Direction than Me?

Adam (@RedHat28) got the party started by taking Historically Impressive Davante Adams.  I actually love that pick.  But I was less enthusiastic about Paul Richardson, who is under 180lbs, and Ryan Grant, who will be a 24 year old rookie.

(For an almost-complete list of Fantasy Football prospect ages, check out the 2014 Rookie Age Project.)

I’m iffy about Clint (@BTR331) taking Jace Amaro at 1.10.  That said, I probably would have praised him had he taken Jace at 1.10 and then ASJ with pick 15.  Depending on where they land, and how their workout numbers look, someone at the turn of Rd1 could really make a baller move by taking two TEs.  I think that all three of these guys are fantastic.

I was a little surprised to see Carey and Mason go at 2 & 3 because, in my eyes, there are a lot of nice RB options and we still know relatively little about their physical profiles.  Not saying they won’t ultimately go that high, but right now I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger there.

Who Was Overlooked?

Wide Receivers

Maybe you’ve never heard of Chris Boyd, but I think after you read why he is the biggest sleeper in the 2014 NFL Draft, your opinion might change.  I think he will be a big riser over the next few months.  I’m not surprised he was ommitted now.  I WILL be surprised if he doesn’t end up among the top 40 picks in many rookie drafts.

Other guys who have interesting metrics and are bigger than 6’2″ and 200lbs include: Quincy EnunwaCody HoffmanBrandon ColemanEric ThomasCody Latimer.  These are your high-end flier guys who you should know for later in your Rookie drafts.

(If you feel compelled to do your own research on WR or TE prospects, be sure to check out the RotoViz College Career Graph app.)

Running Backs

James Wilder Jr., Raijon Neal, Storm Johnson, David Fluellen, and George Atkinson are probably in that next group of RBs that would have been drafted in a 4th or 5th round of the rookie draft.  They’re all bigger guys who could turn some heads with strong Combines and make it into the next Mock Draft.  I’m surprised, but not, that a brand name like De’Anthony Thomas fell through.

Tight Ends

I’m not surprised by these results, but I do want to mention someone.  It seems like Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron and Troy Niklas are locked in as being the top 4 TEs in this draft.  The guy who I think will be #5 is Crockett Gillmore from Colorado State.  Using “.2DR” as a TE breakthrough measure, Gillmore achieved that at age 20, while also posting some solid raw stats for his career.  He looked interesting during Senior Bowl 1-on-1s.

 

*Quarterbacks*

No surprises.  I think for most people that Boyd-Mettenberger-McCarron-Fales-Carr-etc. cluster is pretty indiscernable.  Only 1 or 2 will end up being interesting bench warmers under established vets and worthwhile dynasty stashes, like Peyton Manning’s successor Brock Osweiler.

 

What do you think?

Remember, the participants in this mock draft were chosen because they had commented on articles.  Leave your two cents below to become eligible to participate in our 2nd Rookie Mock Draft.  Whose picks did you love?  Who went awry?  Who will be the biggest movers between now and draft day?  Look forward to reading your thoughts.

Jon Moore is a coach at RotoAcademy and creator of The College Football Experiment.  Continue this conversation with him on Twitter or Google+.

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13 comments
fezic
fezic

Does anyone have recommendations of places (not rotoviz) to participate in rookie mock dynasty drafts or to find rookie ADP for the same? I'd like to do so but I would guess the readers here have similar biases like taking D. Adams earlier than non-Rotoviz readers. I'm a new subscriber here, and I'm hoping the smart community here is not actually the representative sample of my fellow dynasty league mates.

deputylefty
deputylefty

Thanks for the compliments, but all the credit goes to Chad Parsons.

Skinzaholic46
Skinzaholic46

I'm in a PPR dynasty going into its 2nd year. We are doing a FA draft on Labor Day right before our 4 round rookie mock (the same day). We also have a limited contact signing of 5 years so player need to produce relatively fast.

I'm picking 11th after getting screwed by Vernon Davis in the Super Bowl. My team is actually solid this year and trying to add depth/early contributing sleepers. I do one J Gordon after all.

I love Moncrief as both a prospect and a dynasty fantasy player. Great hands and good route running was over shadowed by bad QB play. Depending on where he's drafted will write his story.

I do think Sankey and Sims fell further than they should at this point. Also, love Andrews as a sleeper.

This is a deep WR/TE draft so its a great time to take advantage. This mock taught me to try and get established backs in FA and draft for potential at WR/TE.

Thanks guys!

fezic
fezic

I am in two dynasty leagues with very similar scoring and roster sizes, a 12-team league that drafts rookies in May soon after the NFL draft, and a 10-team league that drafts in early/mid August. Both leagues draft 3 rounds. While certainly not a 1-for-1 in comparison, both leagues are similar enough to see a few differences based on timing of the draft. Here are the notable differences:


DRAFTED >= 5 PICKS HIGHER IN AUG THAN MAY: Montee Ball (pick #7 May/pick #2 Aug), Latavius Murray (24/13), Zach Ertz (Not Drafted in May/pick #14 Aug), Kenbrell Thompkins (Not Drafted/19), Kenny Stills (Not Drafted/24), Quinton Patton (Not Drafted/25), Zach Sudfield (Not Drafted/26)


DRAFTED <= 5 PICKS LOWER IN AUG THAN IN MAY: Zac Stacy (9/20), Geno Smith (18/23), Matt Barkley (23/28), Justin Hunter (17/Not Drafted), Mike Gillislee (25/Not Drafted), Jordan Reed (26/Not Drafted), Stedman Bailey (28/Not Drafted), Terrance Williams (30/Not Drafted), Tyler Wilson (33/Not Drafted), Da'Rick Rogers (35/Not Drafted), Stepfan Taylor (36/Not Drafted)


NOT PICKED IN EITHER DRAFT: Andre Ellington

OBSERVATIONS:

- The two big RB movers were L. Murray up and Zac Stacy down. Knowing the guy who picked Murray a lot higher, I am pretty sure it wasn't due to hype, he was locked into the guy from April onward. I do remember that Stacy falling so far even seemed strange at the time.

- No significant movers up into the top 10 picks, and of the top 19 the only significant jumps in or out from May to Aug were Murray (in), Ertz (in), Thompkins (in), and Hunter (out). I have no explanation why Ertz was taken so early, but do remember thinking at the time that it was a bit of a reach.

- The Patriots' summer hype machine is so cute, isn't it?

SOTBD
SOTBD

Charles Sims at 3.05 seems like a steal here, outside of Crowell landing in a very favorable spot, Sims seems like the only guy in the 3rd round who could make a fantasy impact his first year and turn into a quickly appreciating asset.


Also liked Seth's picks at the turn, getting Hill and Moncrief seems like the best combo of what's left at RB/WR by that point.  


Finally, I was surprised to see Benjamin taken over Evans, especially in a Rotoviz draft, give me Evans all day there.


I couldn't get the doc to scroll down on my iphone, so I switched to a PC and it works fine. But it'd be nice if all Rotoviz tables worked on mac mobile devices as it's what I most use.  Love the new design in general though!

garbagepoint
garbagepoint

for some reason I can view everything but the actual draft picks. I'm on a mac.

SwitchAres
SwitchAres

Should I even bother drafting a WR that doesn't possess the Holy Grail components if there is one that does still available, regardless of situation or perceived value? What conditions would merit passing on such a player, assuming there is not a RB or QB of greater value available? 

TheCFX
TheCFX

Quick note based on a Twitter question-- snake draft format was chosen because this draft happened in a bubble.  Straight drafts make sense when the teams picking first are the worst.  In this case, we have no knowledge of team strength for these GMs, so we just decided to level the playing field by using snake format.

fezic
fezic

@SOTBD I second the iphone point, can't scroll a google drive doc on Safari browser. An easy way to fix might be to put a button/link that takes you to the full site instead of the mobile version of the site.

TheCFX
TheCFX

@SOTBD  Thanks for chiming in!  Great points on the 3rd round thinning out a bit.  And, yes, Benjamin before Evans was a bit surprising to me, but that's why this is so fun.


Glad you like the new design.  We'll keep on working to make things better and more accessible.

TheCFX
TheCFX

@garbagepoint  Are you on an iPad?  Sometimes embedded googledocs give me trouble too.  Let me see about swapping it out for just a table instead.

TheCFX
TheCFX

@SwitchAres I would contend that you should.  Looking at last year, for example, you would have drafted guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Aaron Dobson in a dynasty format OVER guys like Tavon Austin, Justin Hunter and Terrance Williams.  Heck, even Da'rick Rogers would have been yours over a Tavarres King, Quinton Patton, or Ace Sanders.  Which of those cohorts would you rather have?


I'm not saying it's foolproof, but think about it like "trusting the process".  In the long term, you will be right on more guys that you are wrong and tilt the odds in your favor.