What’s This Then? Dominator Rating and Breakout Age
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BackgroundYou might have noticed we’ve latched on to a a couple of themes here recently: the importance of a prospect’s age, and how dominant the prospect was in college. At RotoViz, neither is a new idea. What is new, however, is the idea of wedding the two concepts into a unified perspective. Essentially we’re looking at when a collegiate receiver posted their first significant Dominator Rating (DR). Consider a DR of 30% to be a threshold indicative of potential NFL success (DR is the average of a player’s percentage of team receiving yards and percentage of team receiving touchdowns). Now call the age when the player first crossed that threshold their “Breakout Age” (BOA). In general, the earlier the breakout age, the better. A 23 year college senior putting up “dominant” numbers against opponents 2 years his junior is less meaningful than an 18 year old true freshman putting up the same numbers against opponents 2 years his elder. Though still evolving, a lot of good work has already been done. Jon Moore, Shawn Siegele, and The Douche have been the main players, and if you haven’t read (and re-read) their work, go do that first. Here’s a refresher:
- The Douche is responsible for the genesis of both ideas. In these two articles from last year, he took a preliminary look at the affect of age on the performance of rookie wide receivers.
- Dominator Rating is a Shawn Siegele devised metric, which also builds on the Douche’s work regarding market share for receivers. It’s the average of a player’s market share of receiving yards and market share of touchdowns.
- Jon Moore started looking more formally at the impact of prospect age in this article. About the same time, he shared with the RotoViz staff a database (still being built) to help track ages and other metrics for players current and past.
- This inspired Mr. Siegele to pen Three Holy Grail Components to Wide Receiver Evaluation, Early 2014 Wide Receiver Rankings, and finally, Why Breakout Age is the Skeleton Key.
- Mr. Moore followed with The RotoViz Skeleton Key: Picking Better WRs for Fantasy Football, wherein he explored the relationship between a player’s collegiate breakout age and NFL fantasy football production.