What’s This Then? Dominator Rating and Breakout Age



You might have noticed we’ve latched on to a a couple of themes here recently: the importance of a prospect’s age, and how dominant the prospect was in college. At RotoViz, neither is a new idea. What is new, however, is the idea of wedding the two concepts into a unified perspective. Essentially we’re looking at when a collegiate receiver posted their first significant Dominator Rating (DR). Consider a DR of 30% to be a threshold indicative of potential NFL success (DR is the average of a player’s percentage of team receiving yards and percentage of team receiving touchdowns). Now call the age when the player first crossed that threshold their “Breakout Age” (BOA). In general, the earlier the breakout age, the better. A 23 year college senior putting up “dominant” numbers against opponents 2 years his junior is less meaningful than an 18 year old true freshman putting up the same numbers against opponents 2 years his elder. Though still evolving, a lot of good work has already been done. Jon Moore, Shawn Siegele, and The Douche have been the main players, and if you haven’t read (and re-read) their work, go do that first. Here’s a refresher: Interesting ideas, right, but what do they actually mean in practice? Never mind the implications for real teams drafting real players, let’s look at what it means for fantasy football. As I mentioned above, Mr. Moore’s recent article took you “from college to the pros” to see how players with different DR & BOA configurations fared. In this article, I’m doing the reverse: starting with successful NFL fantasy WRs, and looking back to see their collegiate DR and BOA.

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By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive