Image via BMWard_2000/Flickr Image via BMWard_2000/Flickr

As a refresher:

Expected Points: The average number of fantasy points that would have been produced by a play from the same line of scrimmage. For instance, a pass from the opponent’s 1 yard line will produce about 2.5 fantasy points on average (with the average calculated over a 12 year period).

Fantasy Points Over Par: The difference between the average value of a play, and what actually happened. In the example above, if a QB completes the pass from the 1 for a touchdown, it results in positive FPOP, whereas an incomplete pass or a pass play that comes up short of the goal line will both count as negative FPOP.

Some thoughts after 17 weeks: 

  • Josh Gordon ended up leading the way in Expected Points per Game [edit: that's actually not true, he finished just behind Calvin Johnson]. It will be interesting to see what the hell they do in Cleveland next year because while I consider Gordon to be an uber-talented WR, some part of his results are likely tied to seeing a really high usage rate. Coaching changes and/or a QB change could impact that usage rate.
  • Speaking of a receiver’s results being tied to a QB, Alshon Jeffery is likely to be drafted fairly highly next season and that may be warranted. But it’s worth remembering that Jay Cutler, and not Josh McCown, will be throwing Jeffery the ball. By my count, Jeffery averaged about 27 more yards receiving per game when McCown was the QB. It’s also possible that Jeffery’s increase in production under McCown doesn’t have anything to do with the QB and was instead related to the Bears schedule during that part of the season. In any case, it’s worth remembering that Jay Cutler is usually pretty dialed in to Brandon Marshall.
  • I think I might have said before the season that in the Broncos passing game, since you really don’t know who will get the ball, it might be best to just take the cheapest option (Eric Decker). Decker and Demaryius Thomas finished with pretty similar expected points. Thomas ended up outscoring Decker, but the difference in ADP meant that Decker was probably on more winning rosters. And the difference between Decker and Welker wasn’t particularly close, although I’m sure that was in part due to injury. But that’s maybe a point worth discussing. We talk a lot about arbitrage on the site, and while we don’t use the term with its exact traditional meaning, what we mean is trying to capture similar upside with a reduced downside. Injuries are always part of the downside. When you combine the possibility of injury with the possibility of a straight bust, you have enough downside that it’s always worth looking for ways that you can mitigate it by taking something that’s similar but with a reduced cost. Want part of the Denver passing offense, but don’t want to shell out DT or Welker type draft capital to do it? So you take Eric Decker instead.
  • TY Hilton’s 2013 season was significantly less efficient than his 2012 season. He’s still in positive FPOP territory for his career.
  • Is Larry Fitzgerald a #1 WR? That’s a legitimate question that I don’t know the answer to. I tend to place more value on TDs than most, and Fitz produced a decent amount of TDs this year. But since Kurt Warner left ARI, Fitz has really been a question mark.
  • Jordy Nelson had essentially two separate seasons. One with Rodgers and one with whoever else was playing QB.
  • Greg Little’s got 99 problems… well he had 99 targets and since he can’t catch the ball, he may as well have had 99 problems.
  • Both Harry Douglas and Kendall Wright have over 130 targets and then both returned 2 TDs for those targets. Wright is regarded as an up and coming player, while Douglas is regarded as a band-aid level replacement.
  • Golden Tate might be an interesting name in free agency, assuming that SEA doesn’t re-sign him. He’s not a #1 WR, but if he ends up on a team that throws a little more, I could see him being a sneaky late round WR in the mold of Cecil Shorts in 2012. Not to be confused with Cecil Shorts in 2013.

 

2013 Final WR Efficiency

PLAYER
GMS
TRGS
RECS
YDS
TDS
Exp Pts
Actual Pts
FPOP per Target
Total FPOP
YPT
Career FPOP per Tar
EP/G
Justin Blackmon44829415153.8246.84-0.14-6.998.65-0.1213.46
Julio Jones55941580265.0170.210.095.209.830.3313.00
Calvin Johnson1415684148912170.40220.900.3250.509.540.2512.17
Josh Gordon141598716469168.83225.030.3456.2110.350.2712.06
A.J. Green1617898142611187.27208.600.1221.338.010.1211.70
Pierre Garcon1618211313465186.85165.55-0.12-21.307.40-0.0211.68
Andre Johnson1618110914075182.96170.70-0.07-12.267.770.0611.44
Brandon Marshall16164100129512177.09201.500.1524.417.90-0.0111.07
Dez Bryant1615993122413174.63200.030.1625.397.700.3010.91
Antonio Brown1616611014438170.08189.330.1119.258.690.0410.63
Vincent Jackson161607812247165.60163.91-0.01-1.697.650.2810.35
Wes Welker131117377810131.38137.800.066.427.01-0.0310.11
Cecil Shorts13123667773131.3595.70-0.29-35.656.32-0.0410.10
Julian Edelman1615110510566158.14141.75-0.11-16.396.99-0.109.88
Alshon Jeffery161498914217156.41187.060.1930.659.540.189.78
Juron Criner1833209.663.20-0.81-6.464.00-0.549.66
Demaryius Thomas1614292142714154.12226.700.5172.5810.050.369.63
Eric Decker1613687128811152.86194.800.3141.949.470.299.55
Larry Fitzgerald161358295410146.83155.270.068.447.070.099.18
Randall Cobb64731433454.3473.200.3718.869.210.359.06
Reggie Wayne75939508261.9762.800.010.838.610.098.85
Ty Hilton161398310865141.05138.42-0.02-2.637.810.128.82
Jordy Nelson161278513148140.47179.400.3138.9310.350.408.78
Victor Cruz14122739984122.57123.800.011.238.180.238.75
Steve Johnson12101525973104.7078.10-0.26-26.605.91-0.038.72
Torrey Smith161376511284139.59136.80-0.02-2.798.230.198.72
Mike Wallace16141739305137.47124.86-0.09-12.616.600.268.59
Harry Douglas161328510672136.54118.70-0.14-17.848.08-0.168.53
Kendall Wright161399410982136.35121.80-0.10-14.557.90-0.158.52
Anquan Boldin161298511797131.57159.600.2128.029.140.088.22
Brian Hartline161347610164130.93125.60-0.04-5.337.58-0.068.18
Marques Colston15111759435118.08124.300.066.228.500.217.87
DeSean Jackson161268213329124.48185.780.4861.3010.570.247.78
Keenan Allen151047110538115.88153.300.3637.4210.130.367.73
Steve Smith15110647454114.7798.50-0.15-16.276.770.157.65
Roddy White139763711398.4989.10-0.10-9.397.330.037.58
Jarrett Boykin128349681390.8186.10-0.06-4.718.20-0.097.57
Emmanuel Sanders16112677206119.35110.04-0.08-9.316.43-0.107.46
Michael Crabtree53319284136.9734.40-0.08-2.578.610.067.39
Dwayne Bowe15103576725108.6997.20-0.11-11.496.520.027.25
Michael Floyd161136610545115.80135.400.1719.609.330.027.24
Denarius Moore138646695593.9299.500.065.588.080.127.22
Greg Jennings15106688044107.65104.40-0.03-3.257.580.247.18
James Jones149359817399.2099.700.010.508.780.317.09
Danny Amendola128354633283.8474.92-0.11-8.927.63-0.286.99
Aaron Dobson117237519476.7975.90-0.01-0.897.21-0.016.98
Mike Williams64022216241.9133.60-0.21-8.315.40-0.026.98
Kenbrell Thompkins116932466475.9270.60-0.08-5.326.75-0.086.90
Josh Cooper214960013.696.00-0.55-7.694.29-0.496.84
Brandon Gibson74330326347.6850.600.072.927.58-0.136.81
Hakeem Nicks15101568960100.7489.60-0.11-11.148.870.146.72
Greg Little1699414652105.4658.50-0.47-46.964.70-0.276.59
Marlon Brown148249524790.3993.740.043.346.390.046.46
Nate Washington16105589193100.59109.900.099.318.750.096.29
Griff Whalen74024259243.7437.90-0.15-5.846.48-0.156.25
Jerome Simpson1610048726199.6878.60-0.21-21.087.26-0.156.23
Da’Rick Rogers42314192224.7530.740.255.998.350.256.19
Rod Streater169960882498.91112.940.1414.038.910.076.18
Davone Bess148642362286.3448.20-0.44-38.144.21-0.216.17
Golden Tate169964898598.23121.490.2323.269.070.116.14
Jeremy Kerley127243523372.7869.49-0.04-3.297.26-0.086.07
Ace Sanders158751484190.0953.85-0.41-36.245.56-0.416.01
Nate Burleson95539461154.1150.35-0.07-3.768.380.036.01
Jerricho Cotchery1576466071089.99119.750.3929.767.990.006.00
DeAndre Hopkins169152802295.2192.20-0.03-3.018.81-0.035.95
Robert Woods148540587382.9477.35-0.06-5.596.91-0.065.92
Malcom Floyd2116149011.6214.900.303.2813.550.285.81
Brandon LaFell158549620585.3092.110.086.827.290.075.69
Santonio Holmes105822447156.4050.70-0.10-5.707.710.125.64
Tavon Austin136940418473.1282.610.129.486.060.125.62
Kris Durham168538490288.3161.00-0.32-27.315.76-0.295.52
Kerry Taylor63422229133.1128.90-0.12-4.216.74-0.125.52
Andre Holmes105225431154.8649.10-0.11-5.768.29-0.135.49
David Nelson126036423265.5654.30-0.19-11.267.05-0.095.46
Marvin Jones1680517121086.96133.940.5346.988.900.335.44
Mike Brown115632444259.6356.40-0.06-3.237.93-0.075.42
Chris Givens168334569086.5656.28-0.35-30.286.86-0.115.41
Jacoby Jones126737449264.8255.95-0.13-8.876.700.045.40
Riley Cooper168347835886.26131.500.5545.2410.060.195.39
Eddie Royal146747625874.99111.170.5236.189.33-0.155.36
Darrius Heyward-Bey136429309168.1638.09-0.45-30.074.83-0.155.24
Terrance Williams157444736577.26102.140.3224.879.950.325.15
Rishard Matthews136741448266.8356.80-0.15-10.036.69-0.165.14
Jason Avant157638447277.0956.70-0.27-20.395.88-0.125.14
Cordarrelle Patterson167745469481.5999.020.2017.436.090.205.10
Leonard Hankerson105030375351.0355.500.094.477.500.095.10
Santana Moss167942452281.4558.24-0.28-23.205.720.095.09
Mohamed Sanu167747455281.3657.20-0.30-24.175.91-0.155.09
Austin Pettis146338399469.6563.90-0.09-5.756.33-0.204.97
Stephen Hill125924342158.3740.20-0.31-18.175.80-0.224.86
Andre Roberts167643471277.0059.10-0.24-17.906.20-0.164.81
Jerrel Jernigan94529329243.1455.660.2712.527.310.114.79
Rueben Randle167841611676.5297.100.2620.587.830.284.78
Doug Baldwin167350778575.01107.330.4332.3210.660.234.69
Donnie Avery157140596269.8571.260.021.418.39-0.124.66
Sidney Rice83515231337.0941.100.114.016.600.224.64
Darius Johnson104322210145.9327.00-0.44-18.934.88-0.444.59
Vincent Brown166941472171.8553.20-0.27-18.656.84-0.144.49
Miles Austin114924244048.2724.40-0.49-23.874.980.204.39
Stephen Burton313876013.046.22-0.49-6.815.85-0.354.35
Ted Ginn166836556568.7686.570.2517.818.18-0.094.30
Mario Manningham523985020.988.50-0.54-12.483.700.154.20
Lance Moore135437457254.0257.700.073.688.460.164.16
Cole Beasley145439370257.5649.00-0.16-8.566.85-0.284.11
Kevin Ogletree114521269244.7838.90-0.13-5.885.98-0.084.07
Tiquan Underwood124624440447.5568.000.4420.459.570.013.96
Deonte Thompson5201096019.779.60-0.51-10.174.80-0.413.95
Edmond Gates62412122023.4312.20-0.47-11.235.08-0.433.91
LaVon Brazill82712161231.1828.10-0.11-3.085.96-0.033.90
T.J. Graham165823361259.1747.62-0.19-11.566.22-0.253.70
Kenny Britt10351196036.159.60-0.76-26.552.740.153.61
Tandon Doss103619305036.0430.50-0.15-5.548.47-0.223.60
Keshawn Martin124022253242.0337.30-0.12-4.736.33-0.253.50
Brandon Stokley62113115020.8711.50-0.45-9.375.480.173.48
Earl Bennett144332243448.4748.300.00-0.175.65-0.043.46
Marquise Goodwin93217283330.9546.200.4415.248.840.443.44
Patrick Edwards311546010.294.60-0.52-5.694.18-0.523.43
Aldrick Robinson134618365244.2146.710.052.517.930.373.40
Josh Boyce6199121020.1712.10-0.42-8.076.37-0.423.36
Jeremy Ross512667116.2615.75-0.04-0.515.58-0.043.25
Eric Page3946809.707.26-0.22-2.447.56-0.223.23
Michael Preston3753729.6915.700.866.015.290.403.23
Justin Hunter134218354441.9759.400.4117.438.430.413.23
Jermaine Kearse143822346445.0058.600.3613.609.110.223.21
Kyle Williams82712113025.4112.66-0.44-12.754.19-0.093.18
Brian Quick143518304244.0142.40-0.05-1.618.69-0.093.14
Kenny Stills165032641549.4693.670.8344.2112.820.833.09
Chris Owusu62013114018.2011.40-0.34-6.805.70-0.383.03
Stedman Bailey82517226023.8730.940.267.089.040.262.98
Jarius Wright154326434343.6061.400.4117.8010.090.252.91
Andre Caldwell112916200332.0638.230.216.176.90-0.262.91
Austin Collie411663011.336.30-0.46-5.035.730.012.83
DeVier Posey92515155025.3815.50-0.40-9.886.20-0.222.82
Markus Wheaton513664014.096.40-0.59-7.694.92-0.592.82
Greg Salas5138143013.9414.300.030.3611.00-0.242.79
Damian Williams82315178021.9417.80-0.18-4.147.74-0.172.74
Myles White512966013.286.60-0.56-6.685.50-0.562.66
Chris Hogan6171083015.828.30-0.44-7.524.88-0.442.64
A.J. Jenkins7178130018.2212.36-0.31-5.867.65-0.342.60
Nick Toon512468012.476.80-0.47-5.675.67-0.472.49
Josh Morgan133421223032.2922.02-0.29-10.266.56-0.062.48
Jon Baldwin4932809.832.80-0.78-7.033.11-0.382.46
Nick Williams41131509.751.50-0.75-8.251.36-0.752.44
Andrew Hawkins71812199016.9119.250.122.3511.06-0.102.42
Julian Talley120002.340.00-1.17-2.340.00-1.172.34
Brian Robiskie110002.330.00-2.33-2.330.00-0.182.33
Travis Benjamin5135105011.6614.530.202.878.080.182.33
Jeremy Ebert4831809.281.80-0.94-7.482.25-0.942.32
Ryan Broyles614885013.598.50-0.36-5.096.070.072.26
David Reed231204.520.20-1.44-4.320.67-0.342.26
Jacoby Ford12241399025.829.07-0.58-16.754.130.082.15
Drew Davis81712216217.1533.600.9716.4512.710.832.14
Junior Hemingway101913119220.5223.900.183.386.260.182.05
Brice Butler8179103016.2910.30-0.35-5.996.06-0.352.04
Louis Murphy713637114.109.70-0.34-4.402.85-0.212.01
Eric Weems121802.000.80-0.60-1.204.000.002.00
Derek Moye4622017.868.000.020.143.330.021.97
Michael Campbell120001.970.00-0.99-1.970.00-0.991.97
Jeff Maehl5946719.6612.700.343.047.440.211.93
Brittan Golden510413609.5013.600.414.1013.600.411.90
Robert Meachem153016324228.2743.330.4715.0610.800.571.88
Chad Hall4722007.462.00-0.78-5.462.86-0.351.87
Dwayne Harris814980214.7820.120.365.345.710.041.85
Darius Reynaud121401.84-0.07-0.64-1.912.00-0.421.84
Josh Cribbs122601.78-0.65-0.16-2.433.00-0.031.78
Marlon Moore815762013.606.61-0.44-6.994.130.041.70
Domenik Hixon5975518.5011.500.333.006.110.041.70
Quinton Patton3533404.915.520.100.626.800.101.64
Skye Dawson4721206.511.76-0.53-4.751.71-0.531.63
Dorin Dickerson3523404.783.40-0.28-1.386.80-0.331.59
Tori Gurley2311503.121.50-0.54-1.625.00-0.541.56
Jaron Brown111710127116.8618.700.111.847.470.111.53
Armanti Edwards3511004.450.48-0.66-3.972.00-0.141.48
Marcus Easley4521305.471.30-0.83-4.172.60-0.831.37
Dane Sanzenbacher6866107.996.10-0.24-1.897.63-0.311.33
Lamaar Thomas2323102.633.100.160.4710.330.161.32
Brian Tyms4521205.201.20-0.80-4.002.40-0.801.30
Seyi Ajirotutu3436413.8312.402.148.5716.000.701.28
Lestar Jean6843507.673.50-0.52-4.174.380.231.28
Stephen Williams340003.730.00-0.93-3.730.00-0.581.24
Marvin McNutt110001.240.00-1.24-1.240.00-1.101.24
Joe Anderson110001.110.00-1.11-1.110.00-1.111.11
Damaris Johnson3321403.101.40-0.57-1.704.67-0.161.03
Ricardo Lockette7758207.217.530.040.3211.711.111.03
Kevin Cone1111201.021.200.180.1812.00-1.341.02
Brandon Tate221601.980.60-0.69-1.383.000.230.99
Marquess Wilson3321302.941.30-0.55-1.644.33-0.550.98
Brad Smith2222701.900.75-0.29-1.1513.50-0.070.95
Ben Obomanu111800.930.80-0.13-0.138.000.000.93
Percy Harvin1111700.911.700.790.7917.000.090.91
Greg Jenkins110000.890.00-0.89-0.890.00-0.890.89
Ryan Spadola110000.870.00-0.87-0.870.00-0.870.87
Kassim Osgood1111700.871.700.830.8317.00-0.110.87
Saalim Hakim110000.87-1.22-0.70-2.090.00-0.700.87

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