Dominator Rating & Breakout Age: Visualizing 2014’s Wide Receivers

Kevin Bain

Kevin Bain

So I wanted to share a couple of visualizations. As you know, some of the RotoViz heavy hitters have been looking at the relationship between a collegiate player’s Dominator Rating and Breakout Age. If you’re new to the concepts, or just want a refresher, here goes:
  • The Douche is responsible for the genesis of both ideas. In these two articles from last year, he took a preliminary look at the affect of age on the performance of rookie wide receivers.
  • Dominator Rating is a Shawn Siegele devised metric, which builds on the Douche’s work regarding market share for receivers. It’s the average of a player’s market share of receiving yards and market share of touchdowns.
  • Jon Moore started looking more formally at the impact of prospect age in this article. About the same time, he shared with the RotoViz staff a database (still being built) to help track ages and other metrics for players current and past.
  • This inspired Mr. Siegele to pen Three Holy Grail Components to Wide Receiver EvaluationEarly 2014 Wide Receiver Rankings, and finally, Why Breakout Age is the Skeleton Key.
  • Mr. Moore followed with The RotoViz Skeleton Key: Picking Better WRs for Fantasy Football, wherein he explored the relationship between a player’s collegiate breakout age and NFL fantasy football production.
  • I added my “looking back” two cents yesterday, where I demonstrated that the vast majority of Top 30 WR fantasy seasons come from players with a viable (greater than 30%) DR and younger Breakout Age (BOA).
Expect more analysis to come. For now, chart porn!

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By James Todd | @spidr2ybanana | Archive

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