Football

Age Adjusted Dominator Rating

alshonjeffery

 

As a follow-up to my post from earlier today I’ve done a little bit more work to adjust Dominator Ratings for the prospect’s age on the date that the statistics were compiled. The blind eye that we’ve turned to prospect age in past seasons probably doesn’t make that much sense given that we were unintentionally penalizing players that leave school early and don’t come back to compete against opponents younger than they are. For additional articles on this topic, see here, here, here and here.

To arrive at Age Adjusted Dominator Ratings I calculated a trend line for the Dominator Ratings for the drafted WRs in my sample, with age as the x-axis and DR as the y-axis. That trend looks like this:

Predicted Dominator Rating Based on Age

Rplot71

Again, the trend is for all drafted players.

Then I used the trend to predict what each player should have done at each age, and then once I had that prediction, I subtracted out what the player actually did. That difference between prediction and actual is what I’ll call the Age Adjusted Dominator Rating (for now). Just for clarity, the AADR is net of the expectation. I just don’t want anyone to get hung up looking at the numbers and thinking they’re lower than we typically talk when discussing DRs.

Probably the most meaningful thing I could tell you at this point is that I threw that AADR into a regression with Draft Round (and using Yards/Game in NFL seasons 1-3 as the dependent variable) and it boosted the r-squared of the regression when used with Draft Round. It was also significant on its own with an r-squared of .17 when no other variable is considered. So it has some predictive power. I should note that I’m not really getting into a full WR model in this post as we’re still in data exploration mode.

Finally, because you might be interested to see a list of AADR for past prospects, I have the below table that consists of WRs picked in the first three rounds that I was able to get age and college production. The top of the table is mostly hits (not all) and the bottom of the table is almost exclusively busts (with very few exceptions). You can page/sort through the results using the table controls in order to get to the bottom of the table.

I think if you chose players with high AADR and with weights over 210 pounds you would have a pretty scary receiving corps.

NAMEDraft RoundWeightAverage AADR
Chris Henry31970.29
Larry Fitzgerald12250.28
David Terrell12150.26
Quincy Morgan22100.23
Dez Bryant12250.21
Charles Rogers12020.20
Demaryius Thomas12290.19
Calvin Johnson12390.19
Sidney Rice22000.18
Braylon Edwards12110.18
Antonio Bryant21920.18
Jason Hill32040.17
James Hardy22200.17
Freddie Mitchell11840.17
Rashaun Woods12020.17
Dwayne Jarrett22190.15
Koren Robinson12050.15
Justin Blackmon12100.14
Nate Burleson31920.13
Ashley Lelie12000.13
Keenan Allen32060.13
Michael Floyd12200.12
Troy Williamson12030.12
Jabar Gaffney22050.12
Reggie Wayne11980.12
Lee Evans12020.12
Golden Tate21950.12
Stephen Hill22150.11
Stedman Bailey31930.11
Hakeem Nicks12100.11
Alshon Jeffery22300.11
Deion Branch21930.11
Jordy Nelson22150.11
Darius Watts21900.11
Josh Reed22080.11
Michael Crabtree12150.11
Santonio Holmes11850.10
Kevin Curtis31860.10
Mario Manningham31850.10
Reggie Williams12250.10
Eric Decker32060.10
Kenny Britt12150.09
Randall Cobb21910.09
Roy Williams12100.09
Desean Jackson21780.09
Greg Jennings21950.09
Devin Thomas22150.08
A.J. Green12050.08
Earl Bennett32050.08
A.J. Jenkins11920.08
T.Y. Hilton31830.08
Deandre Hopkins12140.08
Michael Jenkins12170.07
Malcolm Kelly22180.06
Andre Johnson12190.05
Aaron Dobson22100.05
Roddy White12010.05
Brian Robiskie22070.05
Chris Chambers22100.05
Rueben Randle22050.04
Rod Gardner12130.04
Ryan Broyles21920.04
Devier Posey32110.04
Darrius Heyward-Bey12050.04
Dwayne Bowe12210.03
Robert Woods22010.03
Julio Jones12200.03
Donte' Stallworth11970.03
Leonard Hankerson32050.03
Damian Williams31900.03
Michael Clayton11970.03
Jeremy Maclin12000.03
Chad Jackson22050.02
Kendall Wright11940.02
Bryant Johnson12140.02
Devery Henderson22000.01
Torrey Smith22050.01
Bernard Berrian31900.01
Courtney Roby31890.01
Mike Walker31970.01
Justin Hunter21960.00
Titus Young21750.00
Mike Wallace31800.00
Brandon Lafell32080.00
Percy Harvin12000.00
Derek Hagan32050.00
Snoop Minnis3172-0.01
Greg Little2215-0.01
Ted Ginn Jr.1178-0.01
Billy McMullen3210-0.01
Anquan Boldin2218-0.01
Brandon Tate3195-0.01
Jordan Shipley3190-0.01
Robert Meachem1214-0.01
Dexter McCluster2165-0.02
Markus Wheaton3189-0.02
Andre Davis2195-0.02
Arrelious Benn2225-0.02
Tavon Austin1174-0.02
Kelley Washington3218-0.02
Mohamed Sanu3215-0.03
Deon Butler3170-0.03
Terrance Williams3208-0.03
Maurice Stovall3215-0.03
Mark Clayton1193-0.03
Austin Pettis3205-0.04
Limas Sweed2220-0.04
Keary Colbert2200-0.05
Eddie Royal2182-0.05
Jerrel Jernigan3181-0.05
Donnie Avery2186-0.05
Taylor Jacobs2198-0.05
Early Doucet3211-0.05
Emmanuel Sanders3186-0.05
Craig Davis1200-0.05
Mohamed Massaquoi2210-0.06
Terrence Murphy2202-0.06
Santana Moss1185-0.06
Harry Douglas3170-0.06
Javon Walker1220-0.06
James Jones3208-0.06
Patrick Turner3221-0.07
Anthony Gonzalez1193-0.07
Reche Caldwell2215-0.07
Andre Caldwell3207-0.08
Roscoe Parrish2168-0.09
Cordarrelle Patterson1216-0.09
Tim Carter2200-0.10
T.J. Graham3188-0.11
Derrick Williams3197-0.11
Sinorice Moss2185-0.11
Marquise Goodwin3183-0.12
Brandon Jones3208-0.13
Reggie Brown2197-0.13
Mark Bradley2201-0.14

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