DynastyFootball

The Wideout Report: Week 15, Andre Holmes, and Silver Linings Playbook

andre-holmes-raiders

For the last few months I’ve done Tuesday rundowns of all the wideout situations. I’m doing the same thing this week. Also, since I’m not omniscient, check out RotoViz’s Buy Low Machine and WR GLSP Projections. Here we go.

Raiders WRs
I know you saw that catch: The dude looked like a centerfielder running down a fly ball at the warning track and leaping to make the catch at the wall—except with a defensive back draped all over him. He makes plays that Denarius Moore and Rod Streater simply cannot make. The odds are always greatly against a late-round/undrafted WR becoming a startable fantasy player—but I’ve found that about 40-50% of such players achieve some success in their careers as long as 1) they last in the NFL at least 3 years, 2) have strong production in their final collegiate seasons, and 3) have 40 times that I find allowable based on weight. Think of Miles Austin, Donald Driver, Johnny Knox, and perhaps last year’s waiver wire sensation, Danario Alexander (who never ran the 40 in pre-draft workouts). Hell, even Denarius Moore arguably fits in that small group.

In case you’re wondering, this dude 1) is in his third NFL season, 2) had a great run of 12 games in his senior year at Hillsdale (104-1368-11, 0.42 DR), and, 3) according to his NFL Combine Profile, ran the 40 in 4.53 seconds at 210 lbs while also exhibiting great athleticism in his other drills—and, given his size, that 40 time is good enough for me. I don’t always roster undrafted WRs, but when I do I prefer guys like Andre Holmes. By the way, that’s who I’ve been talking about this whole time.

Panthers WRs
Another week, another mention of Marvin McNutt. Next year—his third in the league—he’ll enter that small group of late-round/undrafted WRs in which Andre Holmes now finds himself. Buy now. Get something for nothing. He has the upside of 2009-2012 Hakeem Nicks. He compared favorably to Michael Floyd as a prospect. He could be a Jordy-esque late-blooming receiver. Some preferred him to Rueben Randle when they entered the NFL. You get the point.

Ravens WRs
In 2013, Torrey Smith has scored fewer than 4 points twice and more than 14 points twice. He is averaging just over 9.2 pts/g. That’s basically who he is.

Chargers WRs
Since Malcom Floyd’s injury in Week 2, Keenan Allen has averaged 9.6 pts/game. I think he’ll be one of the most undervalued redraft players in 2014. He feels very Anquan ca. 2003-09.

49ers WRs
Since Michael Crabtree’s return, he and Anquan Boldin have averaged 7.1 and 7.8 standard pts/g. That’s not championship production. Having said that, I expect their Week 16 performances against Atlanta to be substantially better.

Washington WRs
Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, and Aldrick Robinson played against Atlanta in Week 15, substantially outperforming their seasonal per-game averages. A-Rob in particular is taking advantage of Leonard Hankerson’s absence. That’s not unexpected.

Falcons WRs
Some people will be scared of Roddy White in 2014, thereby devaluing his ADP. He could be a solid WR3 redraft target.

Broncos WRs
Did you heed the Wes Welker warning?

Bears WRs
If I were in a dynasty startup draft right now, my strategy would hinge on whether I thought I could draft Alshon Jeffery with my second-round pick. I think he’s still undervalued.

Lions WRs
Who would you rather have right now? Calvin Johnson or Josh Gordon?

Browns WRs
Who would you rather have right now? Josh Gordon or Megatron? Last week, when I asked this question for the first time, Fantasy Dirk Gordon was averaging 0.6 pts/g more than Megatron on the season. Now that number’s up to 0.8. He’s not better than Calvin Johnson, but Megatron’s 28 years old, and if you could have a 22-year-old Terrell Owens v.2.0 instead, wouldn’t you have to consider that second option?

Bengals WRs
Josh Gordon has scored 17.3 standard pts/g this season. A.J. Green, 12.5. Remember when those numbers used to be close? Quick question: Who do you think will have the higher ADP in 2014? Probably not the guy who deserves it. #Arbitrage

Texans WRs
Case Keenum likes throwing to TEs. Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are not TEs. I was wrong about Keenum. Ryan Griffin is not a WR, but he’s intriguing.

Steelers WRs
Antonio Brown was drafted by The Wide Receiver Whisperer. I can believe his 2013 success. He’s who LaVon Brazill wants to become.

Colts WRs
The odds that LaVon Brazill gets Wally Pipped by Griff Whalen are better than zero. T.Y. Hilton has both done well and disappointed in 2013. That combination could make for a gameable 2014 ADP. A note on Da’Rick Rogers: He made a habit in college of dominating weak opponents and following great games with several bad and mediocre games. That won’t fly in the NFL—or on my fantasy teams.

Patriots WRs
Julian Edelman is currently a top-20 WR in standard leagues. He’s certainly Kent (State’s former QB) to Tom Brady’s King Lear. I have Edelman in only one league—and I’m playing in that league’s championship game—but I’ve never actually put him in my starting lineup. What does that mean?

Dolphins WRs
Q: Which is the real Mike Wallace: 1.9 pts @ PIT in Week 14?—or 17.8 pts v. NE in Week 15?
A: Both.

Vikings WRs
As far as bad seasons go, Greg Jennings’ has been great. Speaking of great—Davis Mattek is apparently Eskimo brothers with Cordarrelle Patterson. Here’s my official Twitter response.

 

As far as football goes, I like C-Patz as a dynasty prospect. Perhaps I like him against reason, but I think he could be Gordon-esque in 2014.

Seahawks WRs
In 2013 Doug Baldwin has more TDs and receiving yards than Golden Tate—on fewer targets. In 2014, Tate will be a free agent.

Giants WRs
Jerrel Jernigan led the Giants WRs in scoring in Week 15. Louis Murphy outscored Hakeem Nicks and Rueben Randle combined.

Buccaneers WRs
I still think that Chris Owusu is an undervalued dynasty stash.

Bills WRs
And Marcus Easley still can’t get any playing time?

Jaguars WRs
In Week 15, none of the four active Jags WRs was taller than 6’0” or heavier than 200 lbs.

Jets WRs
Geno Smith: It’s almost as if the Jets want him to fail.

Packers WRs
I mean, if Geno were throwing to Jordy, JJ, and Jarrett, he might look like the second coming of Matt Flynn.

Cardinals WRs
Larry Fitzgerald + Week 15 concussion + Week 16 matchup @ SEA = Avoid.

Saints WRs
Gamble on Marques Colston in 2014 if you must. I think he’s a fantasy value trap.

Rams WRs
Stedman Bailey continues to see action. Next year, he could be Mario Manningham ca. 2009-10. I think they’re pretty similar.

Titans WRs
The Little Blue Engine That Did. Also, did you notice that some guy named Michael Preston caught 2 TDs on Sunday. Who is Michael Preston? He’s a third-year UDFA who tore up DIII’s OAC in his senior year at Heidelberg, going 76-1213-15 in 10 games for a 0.50 DR. He doesn’t have great speed (40 time of 4.60), but he’s got size (6’4” and 204 lbs).

Here’s a PFR Screener of all the third-year late-round/undrafted WRs since 2000 to manage a 2-TD game with no more than 50 receiving yards and 5 receptions.

Rk

Player

Age

Date

Lg

Tm

Opp

Result

G#

W#

Day

Rec

Yds

Y/R

TD

1

Michael Preston

24-197

2013-12-15 NFL TEN ARI L 34-37

14

15

Sun

3

27

9.00

2

10

Steve Johnson

23-316

2010-10-10 NFL BUF JAX L 26-36

5

5

Sun

5

46

9.20

2

16

Nate Washington

24-114

2007-12-20 NFL PIT

@

STL W 41-24

15

16

Thu

2

50

25.00

2

19

Drew Carter

26-004

2007-09-09 NFL CAR

@

STL W 27-13

1

1

Sun

3

19

6.33

2

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.comView Original Table
Generated 12/17/2013.

Note that, in their final collegiate seasons, Johnson and Washington (both with questionable speed) went 60-1041-13 (0.30 DR) and 69-1428-16 (0.73 DR), while Carter (with great speed) went 25-410-1 (0.19 DR). Preston is more similar to Johnson and Washington than to Carter. I’m not suggesting that Preston will eventually find fantasy success, as Johnson and Washington have done—but this information is intriguing, no?

Chiefs WRs
In Week 15, one of Alex Smith’s receivers led the NFL in receiving yards and TDs—and that guy wasn’t a WR. #AndyReidDestroyedFantasyVoldemort

Cowboys WRs
I’m in the middle of a two-week championship in one league—against a guy who has Jamaal Charles—and I have a slight lead entering the second week. Dez Bryant is partially why. So is Nick Foles.

Eagles WRs
Even without his negated rushing TD, DeSean Jackson led all WRs in Week 15 non-PPR scoring. As Dr. Cliff Patel from Silver Linings Playbook would say, “DeSean Jackson is the man.”

By the way, even though I’m a Cowboys fan, I love that movie for a few reasons: 1) The “Excesior” Scene gives my wife a reason to think that my sports neurosis is something that she can get into, 2) I can make my wife happy by pretending that I don’t find Jennifer Lawrence’s gyrating body attractive but do enjoy the final dance number as an ode to Dirty Dancing’s conclusion, and, 3) the DeNiro character’s superstitions got me thinking, and I realized that when I go to the gym and watch football games as I run on the treadmill my fantasy and reality teams do well—but when I stop running or don’t go to the gym at all on game day all bets are off. I didn’t go to the gym this weekend because of a snowstorm in New Hampshire, and my RDL Team lost in the semifinals. In Week 16, I have championship matchups in all the other leagues I’m in. Guess where I’ll be on Sunday and Monday night.

Interested in RBs? Here’s my Week 15 RB Report.

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By Matthew Freedman | @MattFtheOracle | Archive

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